A Lot Has Changed

Just three weeks ago, I wrote what I thought we could expect from the VGK for the 2018-2019 season. A lot has changed since then—some of it not so good and some that raises expectations.

First, just a few days before training camp starts, defenseman Shea Theodore hasn’t been signed. Combined with the unexpected 20-game suspension of Nate Schmidt for allegedly violating the NHL’s performance-enhancing-drugs policy, this has put a gray cloud over the defensive core of the team. Schmidt is definitely gone for the first 20 games and if Theodore isn’t signed — and there’s no indication that either side is close to hammering out a deal — it’ll leave a huge hole in the defense and create a drag on the power-play unit of which Shea was a part.

Granted, 15 defensemen will be in training camp, including Schmidt, and it’s safe to assume that barring any unexpected happenings in camp, Engelland, McNabb, and Miller will have three of the spots locked up.

This leaves three spots available. Three players have, I believe, an inside track to these spots: Nick Holden, Jon Merrill, and Brad Hunt. Another three still in their development stage are Eric Brannstrom, Nicolas Hague, and Zach Whitecloud. I mention these players because General Manager George McPhee would rather overcook than undercook a prospect. In other words, he’s not inclined to rush these young players into NHL games — unless any of the experienced players fall flat on their faces and he and Coach Gerard Gallant consider one of the prospects 100% ready.

This is the only stumbling block for keeping Vegas from contending for one of the top seeds in the Western Conference for the 2018-2019 season.

On the offensive side, management has not only replaced the holes left by the departure of free agents James Neal and David Perron, they overfilled these two holes with Paul Stastny and yesterday’s acquisition of Max Pacioretty. They did lose Tomas Tatar, along with prospect Nick Suzuki and a draft pick, to acquire Pacioretty, but as I said three weeks ago, Tatar just couldn’t seem to find a place on this team. He spent a great deal of time in the press box as a healthy scratch in the regular season and a number of playoff games. Suzuki is a highly touted prospect, but he’s still unproven at the NHL level and may in fact be two years away from playing in the major league.

Stastny and Pacioretty have reputations for being responsible on the defensive side of the puck, which McPhee thought both Neal and Perron lacked. And their offensive abilities are well-known, especially Pacioretty’s; he ranks 10th in the NHL in goals during the last five seasons with 158. The only players to score more goals during that span are Alex Ovechkin (236), Tyler Seguin (173), Sidney Crosby (173), Jamie Benn (172), Vladimir Tarasenko (170), Joe Pavelski (167), Patrick Kane (163), John Tavares (160), and Brad Marchand (159).

Pacioretty did have an off year with Montreal last season, but he has never really had a number-one center to play with and Montreal was at the bottom of the league in offensive scoring. With the VGK, Pacioretty will have three number-one centers to play alongside of in Karlsson, Stastny, and Marchessault. And yes, Karlsson and Marchessault play on the same line, so I can easily see Pacioretty playing on the second line with a top center in Stastny.

The other factor that makes Pacioretty an interesting addition to the Vegas Golden Knights is that he was no longer wanted in Montreal. We’ve seen how both McPhee and Gallant have the book on motivating players who’ve been kicked to the curb by their previous teams. I can easily envision Pacioretty scoring 30 goals and more than 70 points for the season — helping us to forget about losing two of the original Golden Misfits, Neal and Perron, who were fan favorites.

It’s clear that the Knights are being assembled to make another run at the Stanley Cup. They started as one of the early favorites to win this season. Then, with Schmidt’s suspension and Theodore remaining unsigned, they fell back into double-digit odds. It’ll be interesting to see how the sports books factor Max Pacioretty into the equation.

The only way I can see for Vegas to become the favorite to win the Cup this year is to acquire Erik Karlsson from the Ottawa Senators. But until the Schmidt suspension is completed and Theodore is either signed or becomes part of the deal that brings Karlsson to Vegas, we’ll have to assume that the VGK are among the better teams in the NHL.

Currently, the sports books also believe this. The futures odds to win the Stanley Cup as I write are: Tampa Bay +750, Toronto +850, Pittsburgh and Nashville +900, Winnipeg +950, Boston +1100, Washington and Vegas +1300.

You can leave your comments here or email me directly at [email protected]. And be sure to check out my new book about the VGK’s historic inaugural season, Vegas Golden Knights — How a First-Year Expansion Team Healed Las Vegas and Shocked the Hockey World.