Not so long ago, I received an email from Anthony Curtis directing my attention to https://acresmanufacturing.com/optimal-poker-analyzer/ . It’s an advertisement for a product that casinos can use to evaluate the accuracy of the video poker players at their casino.
Generally speaking, casinos want to reward players based on their true worth to the casino — that is, pay losing players a lot to keep losing, pay good players a little but not too much, and find and eliminate winning players. Also generally speaking, strong players want to disguise what they’re doing so they can keep their welcome and continue to gather their profits.
Not-so-strong video poker players (who realize they are not winning players and likely never will be) should be perfectly fine with being evaluated. They will reap more benefits!
I’ve assumed that this kind of product has been available to casinos for years. Players have been using WinPoker, Video Poker for Winners, Wolf Video Poker, and others for decades which provide this type of information presented in far more user-friendly ways that what is shown in this ad.
Still, the threat is real. If casinos accurately crack down on strong video poker players more than they are already doing, it’s more bad news for a lot of us — who’ve seen video poker playing conditions continually worsen over the past few decades.
I got to thinking how software “outing” blackjack counters is similar and different to software used to out video poker players.
Consider this hand in 9/6 Jacks or Better: A♥ K♥ T♥ T♣ 4♥. The correct play, of course, is AKT4, but I imagine more than 95% of players play AKT. The size of the error is very small, the hand is very rare, so it adds up to being worth “almost nothing” overall.
Now consider this blackjack hand, where you’re betting $100 a hand. You’re dealt 8♠ 4♦ and the dealer shows 2♣. The correct basic strategy play (i.e., ignoring the count) is to hit the hard twelve. Some clever players double down for less — that is, put a red chip (i.e., $5) next to their black one and ask for one card only.
Why do they do this? Casino software evaluating blackjack players only check whether they are doubling or not — not the size of the double. A full-sized double would be a huge error. But since the player is only going to be taking one card, whatever it is, and they’re only a very small underdog hitting a twelve versus a dealer two, at a small fraction of their original bet, if a player can trick the casino’s software into thinking they’re a bad player, it’s worth far more than their expected loss on that small bet.
Arnold Snyder discussed this situation in his Radical Blackjack book. It’s also been discussed more than once by guests on Gambling with an Edge prior to Snyder publishing it.
The two examples cost the players approximately the same percentage-wise. But for purposes of camouflage to preserve a player’s welcome, they are very different.
Consider: In video poker, most players make the wrong play on this hand anyway. This play alone won’t identify a player as a bad one. Plus, video poker software can evaluate the size of the error. It will correctly evaluate this one as very small.
Finally, a basic strategy 9/6 Jacks or Better player plays at perhaps 99.535% while a perfect player plays at 99.544%. For a casino’s bottom line, these are essentially identical. With the mixture of slot club, comps, mailers, etc., it’s not going to be the case that a casino welcomes the first player and bans the second.
But it’s different in this blackjack example. First of all, a significant number of players (I’m guessing 30%?) know the correct play is to hit the twelve and the other 70% stand on the hand. Nobody with a clue doubles for full value on the twelve versus a two. The computer flags this as a major error. Which is good for the player if he’s actually doubling for much less. This player wants to look like a doofus in order to be allowed to continue playing.
Second, in blackjack, this is not such a rare hand. I’ll let somebody else look up or figure out its exact frequency, but it will happen several times a session.
The final difference between the games concerns the conditions surrounding the game that are so important. Video poker players look at the slot club, promotions, and mailers to determine whether or not they have the edge. Blackjack players look primarily to penetration (i.e., how many cards are dealt before the re-shuffle), the dealer errors, and the willingness of casinos to let players play. Computer software doesn’t address any of these things.
So, whether or not casinos use computer software to help them identify and eliminate strong players, my prediction is the best players will continue to find ways to extract money from casinos. Sadly, the more casinos have and use accurate information concerning how well a player plays, the harder it will be to find those ways to win.
I’m sure there’s books out there “gambling with an edge while looking like a mark”.
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The easiest thing would just be to lower the pay tables, and pay more points on lowered pay tables than full pay ones. No need to give Acres Manufacturing a cut of the profits. Or, you put higher EV but more complicated games on the floor like Ultimate X, Bonus Streak, Six Card Draw, etc.
I suppose a disadvantaged or novice video poker player would play slots as well, jump around games, etc. all of which don’t need micro-analysis like this. And unlike pit bosses, it’s almost impossible to camouflage a machine.
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They already cut the point-value by raising the prices at the amenities. Let’s take a look at the Tuscany. What was a great place to gamble until a few years ago turned into a pretty tight place where there are only marginal games available at the very few occasions Still it’s one of the better places for players compared to many Strip joints, but not as good as it used to be.
So, cutting the value that you get in return for your points is one aspect. We have already gone through that by entering this period of inflation.
Next thing was taking out many good games and replacing them by games with lower paytables, such as described by calwatch. I was shocked what I saw that happened at the Santa Fe Station Casino. They had so many good machines in there but seems like they took all but a few of them out of the casino.
Considering last week’s big discussion about some other aspects (W2 forms) etc it would only be helpful if the players’ pool would gamble less and less so the casinos would have to think about and focus on how to make it more interesting again. However, it looks like the majority of today’s customers like these newly designed video slots with all kinds of features and big screens and a lot of noise. Therefore the number of videopoker games has constantly been going down lately. And the trend seems to go on.
No big deal for the people that play for pleasure and entertainment, a little harder now for professionals trying to grind out a living playing these games.
From Switzerland
Boris
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Why would ANY casino allow a well-known professional VP player, who claims to only play with a mathematical advantage and rarely loses, the ability to sit down and play their machines?
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Just more data mining. That’s all. Learn to beat games WITHOUT using a players card.
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Larry
I am afraid that today‘s Videopoker can’t be beat without promotions. In fact, maybe if you play some video slots using your card in your spare time and play vp without it.
From Switzerland
Boris
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If you need a PC, you aren’t beating VP. You’re profits come from the club, not the game.
And I haven’t needed a PC in years for what I do. 😎
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May I ask you what’s the reason for you not to use a players card? There must be a reason. Do you like to remain anonymous? Just asking, because either way, some clubs are good and give you 0.30 percent on top of what you’re winning. Giving that up must have a reason….
From Switzerland
Boris
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Boris, because he is an ultimate x hustler and he wants to hide himself from being discovered by casino.
Without using a PC is generally stupid. They can kick you out regardless you are using a PC or not.
IMO, being stealthy is generally a filthy personality, because the intention of doing so is all about hiding and stealing. You can imagine how much taxes are they willing to pay for their Ultimate X profit. With that personality, the answer is 0.
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Boris, remember Bob was 86’ed from El Cortez for chasing Ultimate X Gold, so there is some risk in Ultimate X hustling.
As far as advantage video poker, those days are past us, but I think it is still possible to lose less by playing smarter, which is what Bob, Jean, etc. have been teaching the gambler. The sharper players will distinguish themselves by playing games with high pay tables, the casinos can either cut the pay tables or cut the comps that go with the high tables. The weaker players will play short pay games and/or complex carnival games.
The comps for someone playing 9/6 DDB are never going to bridge the 0.55% gap between that and 9/6 jacks or better; and although carnival games can add 0.3% to 0.5% theoretical payback, I’ve never seen a casino apply that on a full pay 99%+ game (occasionally you see Ultimate X or Super Times Pay on a 9/6 DDB machine, volatility on top of volatility).
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Thanks for the explination, Hop Hoffer and Calwatch.
I would take the small disadvantage and play the good promotions and forget about the idea of making a living playing videopoker. The house edge is there, yes, so the player will have to lose a little bit in the long run. However, playing the promotions and multiplier days (if available) and do other things during the other days is probably the way to go.
That little casino on Boulder Highway with the famous shrimp cocktail and a lot of old machines with a real nice deco in it, insiders know what I’m referring to, they understand how to handle it. And they have base of loyal customers that keep returning.
Create a nice atmosphere, give the players good gamble and inexpensive food, it’s all they want. Money comes and goes. Even if you give away some of it during your play but get a good time and service in return, I don’t see any problem with that. Playing when the casinos are offering something in return makes absolutely sense, and taking off during the other days is recommended.
From Switzerland
Boris
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I am curious as to what the recommendation would be for the up and coming generations trying to find an edge in Video Poker should do? I started playing serious about 2 years ago and already see the vast changes in pay tables, player clubs, and promotions. I know COVID messed a lot of this up, but I feel it was inevitable that casinos would eventually try and use something to find the more skilled VP players. Being only 30 and diving deep into the VP Rabbit hole is there any information on camouflage, cover plays, or things to do that could help for the long term or am I just overthinking this? I love playing VP and plan to play as long as there are good games out there, which there are and some of them are just hidden. Any guidance is greatly appreciated.
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Mase,
There’s plenty of great information out there from the players that have walked the path you are currently on.
Follow their advice! HOWEVER, when you gain expertise in the BEST paying VP games and have a sufficient bankroll, establish yourself as “$5.00 to $10.00” per bet player WITH your player’s card and become a “$1.25 to $2.50” player WITHOUT your player’s card. I believe the amount of money you can make from the smaller bets can compensate you from what you won’t get when playing at higher denominations and the casinos will know ONLY WHAT YOU ALLOW THEM to know. I’m hoping the other readers here won’t crucify me for suggesting this but this strategy has helped me playing in Atlantic City since this is where I live and Atlantic City is definitely NOT Vegas. I’ve had my account locked out by a Casino and have had a few other encounters with some properties in my 20 year career that haven’t gone too well so I’ve leaned to “fly under the radar”. I never say “Good Luck” to any serious video poker player but I do say “Good Math !” Try this…The “VP Rabbit Hole” awaits
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I’m not sure the reality of playing without the Card in .
What is the benefit , is it psychological ?
You’re not hitting jackpots apparently at
Lower denominations
But you apparently are playing for longer time frames
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Well, if you’re playing 9/6 JB with a 99.54 return and play PERFECTLY you might be able to win $460 after having a “coin in ” of $100,000 and thus “break even” – MAYBE? However, a couple of good sessions of .25/.50 Jacks or Better could easily exceed the $460 you would win IF you were only playing at a consistent $5.00 ($25.00 per hand) level like I was. This is Atlantic City and not Vegas where there are many more casinos completing for players and is a better environment for AP’s.
As a side note I keep better than average records of my play and have just recorded my 384th career Royal. 384Royals/20 year career is almost 20 Royals/year. Readers might see this average and not believe it but I’m sure Bob would believe it and MAYBE, he would explain to the masses how this is possible? Also, by playing in the manner that I do now has significantly cut back on the losses that I used to incur back in the day.
Another point; I still PRACTICE a few times a week using Win Poker and have mastered some games that others might never consider playing. Occasionally, Four Aces with a kicker on DDB combined with a multiplier can lead to significant jack pots. I don’t go to the casino anymore with $20k in my pocket because the free play has essentially vanished and it’s just not worth the high end wagering. But the past was a great run with limos coming to pick me up at home for a 90 mile drive to Atlantic City combined with all the free suites, meals, and drinks I could ever want. This was associated with being a $25.00/hand player but that’s all over now.
And lastly, I NEVER had one alcoholic drink in 20 years while playing video poker and the most W2G’s I ever recoded for one year was $476k.
Hope someone find this information useful and make sure you FULLY UNDERSTAND the concept of binomial distribution; I can’t stress this enough…
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