Off to the races

Several gubernatorial jousts have serious implications for casino expansion in this great U.S. of A. In Ohio, Gov. Ted Strickland (D and once tipped as a possible vice-president) is trailing former Rep. John Kasich (R), based on poll results aggregated and crunched by Nate Silver, the Jedi Master of analyzing poll data. Strickland (left) has been pushing hard for Class II gambling at six Buckeye State racinos, one of which is owned by Harrah’s Entertainment, another by Penn National Gaming. Normally a straight shooter, Kasich is running silent on the VLT issue.

Florida‘s race is deadlocked but, since Seminole Tribe compacts don’t come up for review until 2014, that’ll be a problem for the administration after next. Gov. Deval Patrick (D) has a modest lead in Massachusetts, which means that the casino debate in the Legislature will drag on well into 2011, if not longer, given Patrick’s intransigence.

Nothing against challenger and ex-HMO exec Charles Baker Jr. but his proposal to “field test” one casino sounds like being a little bit pregnant. (So it’s the governor who won’t budge from three casinos vs. the challenger who won’t budge from one. Nice choice you’ve got there, Bay State.) Similar silliness — a one-year casino — was recently proposed in Hawaii, by the way. Independent challenger Timothy Cahill‘s three-casino/four-racino formula aligns just about perfectly with House Speaker Robert DeLeo‘s position but Cahill doesn’t have, as they used to say, a Chinaman’s chance of winning.

Former Maryland Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) was recently “outed” as a lobbyist for Cordish Gaming‘s planned casino in Ann Arundel County. This puts him in a proxy war with his likely opponent, Gov. Martin O’Malley (D), who’s sided with Laurel Park raceway and other Cordish opponents. It also fuels the argument advanced by Ehrlich supporters that he’d push for faster and possibly wider implementation of Maryland’s nascent casino industry. However, voters haven’t quite cottoned to the prospect of Ehrlich 2.0 yet, as O’Malley clings to a three-point edge.

Electronic bingo is going to be an Election Day winner in Alabama. Even if pro-legalization Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) is rapidly slip-sliding away in the polls, likely winner Robert Bentley (R) has advocated putting the issue up to a statewide vote. If Bentley keeps his promise, it’s not a slam-dunk but it’s a damn sight better than what casinos like Victoryland and Country Crossing could hope for under outgoing anti-casino Gov. Bob Riley (R), for whom the term “good riddance” might have been coined.

In Iowa, Gov. Chet Culver‘s goose is cooked, seeing how former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) holds a 15-point lead. Given the reckless manner in which Culver (left) tried to dilute an already-challenged Hawkeye State casino market — possibly from tainted motives — with four more gambling halls (he got one) and the peevish pressure he exerted on regulators to get his way, S&G doesn’t see how Branstad could be any worse. (I haven’t tried to break down the implications for casinos in the Minnesota gubernatorial throwdown; sad to report, my Macalester College classmate Matt Entenza got crushed in last month’s Democratic primary.)

Races in Maine and New Hampshire might have eventual casino-industry implications. Ditto Rhode Island, but the issue’s been off the radar for a while in those states. Maine voters seem to have “casino fatigue,” so any new administration might just give the whole question of expanding it a wide berth. Gov. Rick Perry (R) appears to be coasting to another term in Texas, which is good for him — but not such happy news for casino developers, who continue to endure a Lone Star State stalemate, as it were.

But you never know … what inkling did any of us have that Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) would turn out to be a hard-charging crusader, on a mission to save Atlantic City? Even baccarat hold isn’t as volatile as politics.