Caesars looking good; Amtrak covets Vegas; Bally’s underwhelms

Joseph Greff and his fellow JP Morgan analysts looked at recent trends in Las Vegas and any place not named Atlantic City, and liked what they saw, raising their price target on the stock five bucks to $101/share. Positive factors include recovery in leisure travel (group business is seen as coming back late this and into next year), “legs to a recovery in U.S. drive-to, regional markets, with our anticipation of a return of the 55+ year old customer, which has lagged other customer segments such as a younger demographic,” as well as “permanently higher margins,” thanks to job cuts and other economies. The pending close of the William Hill purchase poises CZR to capitalize on the explosion of U.S. sports betting and growth of online gambling. So far the only consequential property sale on the horizon is that of Horseshoe Hammond, with Las Vegas Strip dispositions having faded into the hazy yon.

Greff espies “incremental evidence of a recovery in Las Vegas and a sequential pick up in most other regional markets.” The “quite strong” March results, however, don’t include meaningful numbers of Baby Boomers, evidently fighting shy of the Covid-opportunity zones that some Strip casinos present. As vaccinations continue to ramp upward, Greff expects this problem to abate. His estimates for 3Q21 and 4Q21 are unchanged “but we can see a scenario where our/Consensus estimates here may be too conservative.” Also, if people continue to behave carelessly and Covid-19 rates keep spiking, that’s going to kick the nascent gaming recovery into a cocked hat.

President Biden loves trains. And quite a few attempts to have been made over the past two decades to revive passenger-rail service from Los Angeles to Sin City. Following the release of Biden’s infrasture-improvement plan, Amtrak leaked a map (subsequently pulled from the Web) of possible new routes—including one from L.A. to Vegas. The biggest strike against it would be that the line, as proposed, would terminate in Las Vegas, instead of continuing to Salt Lake City as the old Desert Wind line did. But let’s think positively about this. Amtrak has experience of serving Las Vegas and is more of a going concern than the many rail-by-night train lines that have been proposed, including Harry Reid and Sig Rogich‘s Choo-Choo to Nowhere, which would have gotten no closer than Victorville. Republicans in Congress are already all het up about the jobs program (mainly because it entails corporate tax increases), so we’d rate Amtrak’s chances as no better than 50-50 but that’s higher than we’d go on anything previous.

Gold is the color of loyalty at Bally’s Corp. casinos. Or is it “Bally”? One wag took a look at the player card above, issued by Bally’s Atlantic City, and suggested the former Twin River Holdings couldn’t afford the apostrophe-s. Our Boardwalk correspondent reports, “Yesterday, Saturday, we decided to go to Bally’s AC, followed by Golden Nugget.” At Bally’s, “When [his wife] asked if they do ‘trade ups’ the response was ‘only trade ups from Caesars cards.’ What’s the point of having players from other casinos taking up space? Their electronics took a page from Resorts Casino‘s operation: In order to check how many points you have earned for free parking or gifts, you have to stop gambling and go to a kiosk and swipe your player’s card, sooo very up to date. When we asked about restaurants, the choices were Johnny Rockets hamburgers, Guy Fieri‘s spicy grease house, or saving the best for last: Buca di Bepo serving only Chinese food. I always go to Italian-themed restaurants to order Chinese, doesn’t everyone?”

On a happier note, “Both ‘Bally’ & GN were crowded in parts, and moderate in other parts. For dinner, we went to Golden Nugget’s Players Club Lounge, where the food was quite good. Golden Nugget’s valet was back in service, thanks Tom Pohlman!” It’s nice to see that Tilman Fertitta‘s joint is getting on the stick, even if Bally’s isn’t.

Here’s a way to make ‘vaccine passports’ coveted items—reward the vaccinated with free slot play. That’s what Gun Lake Casino in Michigan is doing. Show your card and you’ll get $20 free play. Employees who get their shots receive entries into a drawing for $5,000 in prizes. “Receiving access to the Covid-19 vaccine brings a sense of hope for the better days we have all been wishing for. We would like to celebrate this significant milestone by thanking our guests and team members for doing their part to end the pandemic and protect their entire community,” stated COO Sal Semola. From your lips to Big Gaming’s ear, Mr. Semola.

In Nevada, the state government is dangling a carrot before casino owners, saying that if they incentivize their workers to be vaccinated, they’ll be able to exceed 50% capacity on casino floors. But the extra capacity “will only be taken in cases where licensees have taken measurable and material steps” to get needles into arms. (It’s painless, take our word for it.) “Hospitality workers, many of which are front-of-house personnel interacting with visitors from around the globe, are critically positioned to help mitigate the spread of COVID-19 both within the industry, and the community as a whole,” stated the Nevada Gaming Control Board. The NGCB grumbles that employee vaccinations are “relatively low,” so the industry has its work cut out for it. However, it’s getting with the program. On-site vaccination clinics are being set up by Station Casinos, following in the footsteps of The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas, Wynncore, MGM Resorts International and Caesars.

CBRE Hotels Research is predicting hotel-industry recovering, with occupancies averaging 55% by fall and winter. “Our current forecast takes into account a national rollout of the Covid vaccines, plus the December Covid-relief bill, both of which support the projections of improved performance during the second half of the year,” top research boffin Rachael Rothman was quoted as saying. “Based on our forecasts, the worst of the top-line declines are now behind us. We are beginning to see green shoots of a recovery in air-travel data, booking patterns and revenue per available room.” Senior analyst Bram Gallagher added that the faster-than-expected pace of vaccinations and recent $1,400 stimulus payments were tailwinds behind the resurgence. “Upper-priced properties will see faster growth in 2021 fueled by easier comparisons and an uptick in business and leisure travel. However, occupancy levels still will trail those of the mid- and lower-tier properties,” cautioned Rothman. CBRE also projects revenue per available room not to regain 2019 levels for another three years. In that scenario, lower-priced hotels will rebound more quickly. A pandemic-induced tightening of available supply doesn’t hurt, either.

Jottings: Gambling dollars from Texas will continue to flow over the border to Oklahoma for some time, especially with new tribal product like the Comanche Nation‘s projected, new Sooner State casino in Cache, which broke ground last week with an eye to a New Year’s opening. “We would like casinos in Texas. I think we’re losing revenue because of it,” customer Darla Cook fretted … Unless our memory is playing tricks, Olympia Gaming‘s ‘new’ casino project in Sparks has been on the drawing boards for many years—14, in fact. Part of the Outlets at Legends mall, Legends Bay Casino aims for a summer 2022 debut … Another ‘green shoot’ is the return of the World Series of Poker, coming back to The Rio this autumn, presuming it is successful in passing health and regulatory muster from the state. There won’t be in-person WSOP events this summer, with online ones taking their place.