The Rio

F-blue, Rio approved; Indiana down again; Biden smoked

Fontainebleau owner Jeffrey Soffer and top exec Brett Mufson are certain to be approved after their audition for the Nevada Gaming Control Board. And why not? Aside from an ancient tax issue involving the Town Square mall, there’s nothing untoward about Soffer’s application. (Trivia question: Upon what casino’s gravesite was Town Square built?) The only beef we have is the NGCB’s habit of waiting until the last possible minute to approve such applications. If something truly noisome turned up it would be too late to address it properly. The Control Board essentially takes itself hostage to the unstoppable momentum generated by large casino projects. As for the total budget for 16-year construction folie de grandeur that is F-blue, nobody’s talking. We have to defer to Citizen Kane‘s stentorian newsreel description of Charles Foster Kane‘s Xanadu: “Cost? NO MAN CAN SAY!” However, we strongly suspect that F-blue will outstrip Resorts World Las Vegas as the costliest megaresort in Las Vegas history, were the tab to be honestly accounted.

Bellagio bargain?; Shame on Maine; Trump seen slumming

Yup, it’s true. Blackstone Group is shopping the real estate assets of Bellagio as it draws down its Las Vegas Strip exposure. At least one Wall Street analyst thinks this would send a signal to the REIT industry that Strip real estate is “undervalued.” MGM Resorts International still holds 5% of the $4.3 billion megaresort and there’s no word whether that sliver is in play, though apparently not. At any rate, CB Richard Ellis analyst John DeCree decreed that a “Bellagio sale could be positive for valuation signal. Given the iconic nature of Bellagio, we suspect any real estate investor with the financial means would likely be at the table, even for a minority stake in the asset.” He added that “a partial sale could appeal to a broader set of interested buyers, considering the potential price tag,” which he did not specify. DeCree strongly implied that Blackstone would get its 2019 purchase price back, which hardly seems like a strong incentive to sell.

Rio makeover due; DraftKings stiffs you; Las Vegas deemed #1

Having been spared being the next home of the miserable Oakland Athletics, now The Rio faces the question of whether there’s life after Caesars Entertainment. To that end, owner Dreamscape Cos. is going to try to go it alone as a casino operator. We wish them luck because they’re going to need it. Operating a casino in Las Vegas is not for the faint of experience. It puts a bucketful of problems in the lap of President Eric Birnbaum. Dreamscape says its aim is “to preserve the property’s bones and honor its legacy.” So far so good. Making a go of an off-Strip resort won’t be easy, as the newish owners of Palms Casino Resort and the many chefs over at Virgin Las Vegas could tell you. (Hell, Mohegan Sun is quite candid in admitting that Virgin is struggling as a casino.)

Massachusetts soars; The Strip meets The Street

Gambling win in Massachusetts shot up 14.5% in February, reaching $98 million. Market leader, of course, was Encore Boston Harbor with $63 million (+14.5%). MGM Springfield leapt 17% to $23 million and Plainridge Park climbed 10% to $12 million. Wynn Resorts, Penn Entertainment and MGM Resorts International were among the companies represented at the J.P. Morgan Gaming & Lodging Forum and you can read our takes on most of them at CDC Gaming Reports. As for the others …

Vegas booming; Churchill Downs “messy”; Mega-Jottings

Nevada gambling winning catapulted 18% last month—yes, almost a 20% increase over post-Covid numbers (although January 2022 was dampened by Omicron). The good times just keep on rolling, to the tune of $1.2 billion. The Las Vegas Strip led the charge with a 26% vault, grossing $713 million. Strip slot revenue grew 24% on 24.5% more coin-in. Table games were good for the house, with winnings up 23% on only 5% more wagering. Baccarat saw players take a hiding, as the house won 42.5% more on 22% bigger betting.

Downtown kept pace, leaping 25.5% to $85 million. Laughlin (+1%, $42 million) missed out on the party. The Boulder Strip was up 13% to $96 million, North Las Vegas gained 8% to $24 million and miscellaneous Clark County jumped 17.5% to $152.5 million. Utah-fed Mesquite was up 8.5% to $16 million. But favored Mormon getaway Wendover slipped 2% to $21 million. A harbinger of things to come? As Wendover goes, so goes Nevada. Indeed, Reno was down 19% to $42 million, while Lake Tahoe nudged 2% higher to $17 million. Sparks continues on the comeback trail, up 17% to $14 million.

Christmas wishes

It’s time to reward those who have been nice and offer appropriate gifts to the naughty. So, without further ado, we play Santa Claus to the casino industry …

Atlantic City slumps; Adele hell

Dateline: O’Hare International Airport, land of crappy wi-fi.

We’re not back at the office yet but there’s so much news it just can’t wait. Let’s start in Atlantic City, where casino revenues slumped 7% to $220.5 million last month. Everybody was revenue-negative with two happy exceptions, Borgata (+1%) and Hard Rock Atlantic City (+4%). The latter’s Joe Lupo definitely has some secret sauce for attracting players. Borgata raked in $62.5 million to Hard Rock’s $39 million. Ocean Casino Resort had an abnormally poor month, down 6% to $28 million. Even so, Ocean still outperformed all of the Caesars Entertainment properties, with Caesars Atlantic City tumbling 17% to $17.5 million and Harrah’s Resort also falling 17% to $20 million. Tropicana Atlantic City slid 18% to $17.5 million. Golden Nugget ($12 million, -16%) and Resorts Atlantic City ($13 million, -11.5%) duked it out for last place but were aced by Bally’s Atlantic City ($11 million, -13.5%), which means we look forward to hearing the Bally’s Corp. braintrust spin that on their next earnings call.

MGM, Penn disappoint, Golden droops; Tilman’s gambit

Dragged down the golden albatross that is Macao, earnings of MGM Resorts International missed analysts’ projections by a whopping $1.61 per share for a 3Q22 loss of $1.39/share. More’s the pity, as MGM did so many things right. Wall Street expected 91.5% Las Vegas Strip room occupancy; MGM delivered 93%. The Street anticipated $3.2 billion in quarterly revenue; MGM saw that and raised it by $200 million. But Macao missed analyst estimates (which can’t have been very high to begin with) by 18%, eking out $87.5 million. J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff dismissed the quarterly numbers as “more of the same,” while Deutsche Bank‘s Carlo Santarelli was slightly more clement, calling the results “some bumps, but broadly solid.”

Flamingo sale? Forget it!; Mega-Jottings

Caesars Entertainment formally took the Flamingo off the sale block yesterday, at least for the foreseeable future. CEO Tom Reeg cited ‘market conditions‘ (odd when the Las Vegas Strip keeps breaking records). There is also the complication that Vici Properties has right of first refusal on a sale, throwing a cock-block on any big spender the Flamingo might attract. Chances are, having knocked the price down from $2 billion to $1 billion to $800 million, Reeg is still having trouble finding takers for the property. Planet Hollywood theoretically remains in play but Reeg’s preposterous insistence on keeping the conjoined Zappos Theater (Or have they changed the name again?) is a serious deterrent. “There are plenty of interested parties,” Reeg claimed, blaming his inability to cut a deal on “the financing environment is what it is. If that’s going to impact what someone will pay, there’s a level I’m not going to chase, and I’m very happy to just clip the free cash flow and come back later.”

Atlantic City casinos blow smoke

With a mealy-mouthedness that is becoming all too familiar, Atlantic City casino operators took advantage of the Covid-19 pandemic to plead poverty, warning of “grave danger” to their businesses unless they got tax cuts yesterday. One of their arguments was they were losing business to Internet gambling (largely operated by themselves). But hey, it worked. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) told the Lege to give the casinos what they wanted—and it did. According to a new Pro Publica report, “under the changes, companies will collectively pay … $55 million less than they otherwise would have this year—cuts that will disproportionately impact Atlantic City, the distressed capital of the state’s gaming industry.”

Vegas Strip bullish, locals more bearish; Penn plummets

Nevada enjoyed a $1.1 billion gambling-revenue month in April, an 8.5% increase over last year. Powering this was the Strip with $593.5 million, a 23% improvement. Downtown, by contrast, suffered a setback, down 11% to $67 million. Utahns must have been enjoying some financial good fortune, as both Mesquite ($16.5 million) and Wendover ($23 million) hopped 7%.

Elsewhere in the state, gambling spend normalized with a vengeance. The Boulder Strip declined 10% to $72.5 million. North Las Vegas ($25 million) dipped 6%, Laughlin was flat at $46 million and the balance of Clark County edged up 2% to $140 million. It was much the same up north. Reno was flat with $62 million and Lake Tahoe receded 15% to $18.5 million. With that exception, the border jurisdictions seem to be holding their ground while locals business—crimped by inflation?—softens. Even so, it’s still 14.5% above the previous record in 2019.

Caesars, Station fulfill expectations; Flamingo to be sold; Chicago: It’s Bally’s

Analysts on Wall Street are going to be ratcheting up their forecasts for Caesars Entertainment for the remainder of 2022. Or so says Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Sanatarelli. The Roman Empire’s 1Q22 cash flow of $296 million exceeded The Street’s consensus of $287 million. This was in spite of “the potential pitfalls associated with the domestic consumer … [and] the digital losses, all combining to drive the negative narrative.” As for that digital sphere, Caesars expects it to become profitable in two quarters’ time, but not before racking up a $1.5 billion cumulative loss. Meanwhile, the company continues to enjoy tailwinds on multiple fronts, whether it be the cessation of mask mandates in New Orleans or additional room capacity in Atlantic City. Still to be felt are the rebranding of Horseshoe Indianapolis, the expansion of Harrah’s Hoosier Downs and the return of the company to lucrative Lake Charles by year’s end.

Borgata behaving badly; Headless body in topless car

On the “george” side of the ledger we find Bally’s Atlantic City, which is offering room rates starting at $29/night through February 28, albeit on “select nights.” Hey, it’s a terrific way to raise awareness of the new-look Bally’s. As for the Stiff of the Week, the winner is Borgata. Let our Atlantic City correspondent tell it: “MGM Borgata is getting cheaper by the day. [My wife] has reservations for a Christmas show this Wednesday night, but we now have a family night out scheduled. When she called MGM yesterday, she was told next week was ‘fully booked’ for comp tickets, and the host she spoke with told her to contact Ticketmaster to buy her own tickets. With 75,000++ tier points (my estimate is somewhere between $7 to $9 per point). She told the host the tickets were only $12 each (seems like a ‘high quality’ show), and she already had tickets for this week. Didn’t matter to them (she doesn’t have any assigned host at MGM).” Bad Borgata!

MGM resurgent in Maryland; More Mega-Jottings

November was another terrific month for Maryland casinos, as revenues picked up a bit from October, accumulating 14% more than in November 2019.. (If inflation is so bad, where do Marylanders find all this money with which to gamble, one wonders? But anyway … ) After a month out of the top spot, MGM National Harbor was back at #1, grossing $68 million, a 26% leap by the lion. Maryland Live was not quite so buoyant, up 10% to $58 million. Horseshoe Baltimore tumbled 15% to $16 million, remaining the problem child of Caesars Entertainment. Business was slightly slower at Rocky Gap Resort, up 11.5% to $5 million, while Ocean Downs cantered +22.5% to $6.5 million and Hollywood Perryville gained 22% to $7 million. Despite flat slot revenues, West Virginia casinos garnered 3% more last month, on the strength of robust (+18%) table win. Hollywood Charles Town Races was particularly fortunate, climbing 4% at the slots and 32% at the tables.

Illinois springs to life while Ohio erupts; Mohegan Sun jilted twice over

Stop the presses! Illinois casinos actually outperformed 2019 last month by 4%. That’s downright miraculous. They grossed $120 million, led by Rivers Casino Des Plaines‘ $47.5 million, a 28% vault. Harrah’s Joliet was a distant second with $14.5 million (-1%), closely followed by Grand Victoria‘s $14 million (+10%). The prosperity was confined to the northern tier, with Hollywood Aurora up a point to $10 million and Empress Joliet tumbling 20% to $8.5 million. Mid-state, Par-A-Dice slipped 8.5% to $6 million, while Bally’s Corp. will have it’s hands full with Jumer’s Rock Island, which plummeted 33% to $4 million. (Bally’s execs implied on the latest earnings call that they bought it mainly to get in on the sports betting market.) In the southern tier, Harrah’s Metropolis slid 19% to $5.5 million, Argosy Belle was down 8% to $3.5 million and DraftKings Casino Queen declined 11.5% to $7 million. Having two extra weekend days obviously did no harm to the gainers in the marketplace but the losers would surely have been much worse off—though how much worse Jumer’s could get is open to speculation. It used to be one of the best performers in the Land of Lincoln but that was a long time ago.

Incidentally, we now have access to complete numbers from Ohio. To wit, it was a real horserace. Slots-only MGM Northfield Park led with $25 million of a statewide tally of $211 million, up 17% from 2019. Close behind was Hollywood Columbus with $24 million, plus 27%. Jack Cleveland also gave MGM a run for the money with $23.5 million, leaping 38%. Other top grossers were Hollywood Toledo ($21.5 million, +27%), Hard Rock Cincinnati ($21.5 million, +23%), Scioto Downs ($21 million, +34%) and Miami Valley Gaming ($19.5 million, +31%). Other racinos were all revenue-positive: Jack Thistledown ($18 million, +49%), Belterra Park ($9 million, +22%), Hollywood Dayton ($13.5 million, +38%) and Hollywood Mahoning Valley ($15 million, +37%). No, those percentage increases are not typos and we have not been drinking.

Monster monopoly on the Strip?; Caesars wows Wall Street

In a deal that Nevada regulators would block if they had an ounce of spine, MGM Growth Properties proposes to sell itself to Vici Properties, which would put nearly all the prime land on the Las Vegas Strip under one owner. Vici already owns most Caesars-branded properties on the Strip and is on the verge of adding The Venetian and Palazzo. It was, as Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli put it with delicious understatement, “a deal with far-reaching implications.” The price tag is a whopping $17.2 billion, paid in a mix of cash and stock. Of that, $5.7 billion is debt already carried by MGP. Adds Santarelli, “the true driver of M&A in the [REIT] sector was cost of capital, and with VICI having traded at a healthy equity premium to the group for some time, with access to inexpensive debt financing, the transaction makes both intuitive and financial sense.” Still, $17.2 billion is a not-inconsiderable amount of debt, however low your interest payments may be (3.75% in this case).

“In 2016 we started on our journey to become asset light and this announcement, together with our recently announced Springfield and CityCenter transactions, reflects the culmination of those efforts and a major step forward in simplifying our corporate structure,” said CEO Bill Hornbuckle. “As a result of these actions, we are well positioned and remain focused on pursuing growth opportunities in our core business, with significant financial flexibility to continue to deploy capital to maximize shareholder value.” In a goodbye note to MGM, MGP Chairman Paul Salem wrote, “We are thankful to the MGP management team for all of their efforts to develop MGP into a premier gaming REIT.” “We have always admired the exceptional quality of MGP’s real estate portfolio,” added Vici CEO Ed Pitoniak, unable to conceal his glee.

Hard Rock, Ocean drub Borgata; Caesars massacres shows

Casinos in Atlantic City grossed $189.5 million last month, 9% behind their 2019 pace. Slots were off 5% and tables 17%. Regular top-grosser Borgata had a terrible month, falling 28%, spurring by lackluster table-game winnings (-34%), with slots tumbling 25%. The Caesars Entertainment threesome fared almost as poorly, sliding 20% as table win plunged 40% and slots were down 11%. Borgata’s $38.5 million gross put it within striking distance of hard-charging Hard Rock Atlantic City, which won 35% for a 51% leap in revenue. Also soaring was Ocean Casino, vaulting 45% to $22 million and elbowing aside Harrah’s Resort ($21 million, -24%) for third place. Caesars’ much-vaunted $400 million capex may not be enough to prevent a permanent change in the pecking order.

Caesars Atlantic City, despite its reputation for volatility, was a relatively stable -14.5%, grossing $19 million, while Tropicana Atlantic City closed out the portfolio, slipping 20% to $19 million. There was a surprise among the grind joints, with Resorts Atlantic City up a percentage point to $13 million. Little Golden Nugget won $11 million but that was a 29% plummet, while Bally’s Atlantic City also grossed $11 million, down 22.5%.

Vegas hears wedding bells; Sahara upscales; Mega-Jottings

All-important Baby Boomer customers are ‘trickling‘ back to Las Vegas, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. That’s the latest positive augury for Sin City. Better still, the destination-wedding biz is “bursting,” per Forbes, and what place is more synonymous with a getaway nuptial than Vegas? Almost 50% of couples surveyed who were planning to tie the knot in 2020 are now looking at either renewing their vows this year or at least holding the receptions they couldn’t last year. Throw in family and college reunions, and all the arrows are trending upward. At the risk of stating the obvious, “Wedding parties can drive a lot of business to hotels and resorts, including booking ballroom or outdoor event space, having food and beverage offered throughout the celebration, which often takes place over a couple of days, and of course the room reservations for the wedding party and guests.”

4Q20 hotel business was at only at 56.5% of pre-Coronavirus levels but, two rounds of stimulus later, those numbers are certain to be burgeoning. Even business travel is looking better, expected to rise 21% this year. Of course, conferences and trade shows require a considerable outlay, and the shift to virtual meetings will not entirely recede. Business travelers aren’t expecting a return to normal until 2022 or ’23, maybe never. We’ve seen this in Las Vegas, where Las Vegas Strip hotel rates are rebounding dramatically on weekends (along with occupancy levels) but continue to languish midweek. Still, if you’re in a REIT, as much of the gaming industry now is, it’s a good time for you. Writes economist Calvin Schnure, “Lodging/resort REITs have fully recovered their losses from the early months of the pandemic, and the improvements in the fundamentals for leisure and business travel are encouraging for future gains as the economy—and the wedding business—gets back to normal.”

Maryland has best month ever; Rio reopens

Even with capacity restrictions still in place at MGM National Harbor and Horseshoe Baltimore, the Free State enjoyed an epic March with casinos posting an all-time-record $169 million. On March 12, MGM and Horseshoe were bumped up to 50% capacity (from 25%) and restrictions at the state’s four smaller casinos were lifted. (Last year, casinos were closed March 16-June 19.) As usual, MGM was out front with $66.5 million, 6% better than March 2019. It and Maryland Live dominated the market, with 39% and 36%, respectively. Maryland Live gained 9% to $61 million but while Horseshoe Baltimore grew sequentially (up $5.5 million from February), it was still the state’s lone disappointment, down 23% to $20 million. Ocean Downs was up 13% to $7.5 million, Hollywood Perryville vaulted 21% to $9 million and Rocky Gap Resort was up 8.5% to $5.5 million. The leading edge of a trend? We certainly think so. As America goes, so goes Maryland—only more so.

Caesars looking good; Amtrak covets Vegas; Bally’s underwhelms

Joseph Greff and his fellow JP Morgan analysts looked at recent trends in Las Vegas and any place not named Atlantic City, and liked what they saw, raising their price target on the stock five bucks to $101/share. Positive factors include recovery in leisure travel (group business is seen as coming back late this and into next year), “legs to a recovery in U.S. drive-to, regional markets, with our anticipation of a return of the 55+ year old customer, which has lagged other customer segments such as a younger demographic,” as well as “permanently higher margins,” thanks to job cuts and other economies. The pending close of the William Hill purchase poises CZR to capitalize on the explosion of U.S. sports betting and growth of online gambling. So far the only consequential property sale on the horizon is that of Horseshoe Hammond, with Las Vegas Strip dispositions having faded into the hazy yon.

Greff espies “incremental evidence of a recovery in Las Vegas and a sequential pick up in most other regional markets.” The “quite strong” March results, however, don’t include meaningful numbers of Baby Boomers, evidently fighting shy of the Covid-opportunity zones that some Strip casinos present. As vaccinations continue to ramp upward, Greff expects this problem to abate. His estimates for 3Q21 and 4Q21 are unchanged “but we can see a scenario where our/Consensus estimates here may be too conservative.” Also, if people continue to behave carelessly and Covid-19 rates keep spiking, that’s going to kick the nascent gaming recovery into a cocked hat.

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