Gaming industry bears are going to latch onto a 4% drop in Maryland gambling earnings as evidence of an impending recession. Thankfully, J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff puts it in context by pointing out that the $174 million haul is 17% higher than July 2019, itself a high-water mark at the time. The Free State moves closer to a duopoly, with MGM National Harbor (41%) and Maryland Live (36%) capturing more than three-fourths of all business. That left woebegone Horseshoe Baltimore, the casino that Caesars Entertainment forgot, with just $16 million, 13% below last year and 17% down from 2019. MGM, meanwhile, raked in $72 million, a 6.5% slippage, while Maryland Live booked 63%, up 2%.
The former Trump Marina looks sadly outmoded next to Borgata and Ocean
Although terrestrial casino revenue dipped 2.5% last month, New Jersey casinos made out like bandits online, with i-gambling up 19% and sports betting leapt 33.5%. In Atlantic City the gross was $227 million at traditional casinos, as a sharp decline in table revenue (-8%) pulled the Boardwalk down. Borgata slipped 4.5% but still led the market with $60.5 million. Hard Rock Atlantic City felt a chill, off 6.5%, but banked $39 million nonetheless. Ocean Resort was the usurper, jumping 17% to $30 million. Among the Caesars Entertainment flotilla, only Tropicana Atlantic City held its ground, flat at $21.5 million. Harrah’s Resort ceded 10% to fall to $19 million whilst volatile Caesars Atlantic City slid 9.5% to $18 million—not a good look for a high-roller joint. Everybody else was bunched way to the back, trailed by the Golden Nugget with $12.5 million (-1%), as Resorts Atlantic City made $13.5 million (-5%) and Bally’s Atlantic City managed $13 million on a 4% gain.
Mr. & Mrs. America’s torrid, post-pandemic love affair with casino gambling is finally cooling. It’s not cause for alarm, as we knew this was coming—in fact, it was expected to happen much sooner. And while players are dropping less at regional casinos, the picture is still quite roseate. Maryland gaming receipts slipped 5% last month, reaching $169.5 million, 11% better than 2019. MGM National Harbor was off 5.5% to $72 million. Reliable runner-up Maryland Live was good for $59 million, albeit down 6%. Horseshoe Baltimore turned in its usual $17.5 million, flat over last year, while Hollywood Perryville grossed $7.5 million for a 7.5% tumble. Ocean Downs plunged 8% but brought home $8.5 million while Rocky Gap Resort also fell 8% to $5 million. Given the circumstances, we’d say the relative stability of Horseshoe counts as a doggone moral victory. Thanks to strong slot play, West Virginia was actually 1% up last month, despite weak table play (-7%). Hollywood Charles Town outperformed the state, +4%, again buoyed by a good month (+6%) at the one-armed bandits.
Penn Entertainment stock collapsed 13% Wednesday afternoon after Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy took to Twitter to rant and rave about the firing of Ben Mintz, a ‘Stool fool who dropped the N-word on air for all the world to hear. A panicky Portnoy simultaneously trashed Penn’s decision whilst pretending to rationalize it by saying the company could lose all its gaming licenses over the Mintz matter. Not bloody likely, although it would certainly imperil Penn’s provisional OSB license in Massachusetts, where it just squeaked by the last time—possibly in Ohio, as well, where it had been running a scofflaw operation.
So stupid is Portnoy that he scored an own-goal on his personal stock holdings, being heavily invested in Penn. He quickly tried to spin his gaffe, tweeting that it’s “Great time to buy. It’ll bounce back in my humble non financial advise [sic] opinion.” What an idiot. As Credit Suisse analyst Ben Chaiken diplomatically put it, “well publicized Barstool personnel changes likely drove the stock reaction.”
Atlantic City‘s first casino, Resorts Atlantic City, celebrated the 45th anniversary of legalized gambling on the Boardwalk in rather limp fashion. Highlights included a beachball drop and an appearance by Mayor Marty Small (D). Well, we suppose he’s got to do something besides be a sock puppet for Trenton. Small was accompanied by Atlantic City’s new resident celebrity, Kelsey Grammer, who was evidently “assistant mayor” for the occasion. Is being a Small sidekick that much of an honorific? To cap the festivities, Resorts rolled out … a tribute band?!?! Yes, it’s the New York Bee Gees, adding to the perception of the Boardwalk as an also-ran destination for entertainers.
Caesars Entertainment CEO Tom Reeg and Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance Brian Agnew just sat down with Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli, who came away sufficiently impressed with the Roman Empire to maintain a “Buy” rating on CZR. Santarelli found the execs “largely balanced and consistent,” their top priority being to reduce debt at the company, which definitely should be Job One. Other leading concerns are “operational prudence” and online execution. The analyst was pleased with “stable operations, underpinned by continued strength in Las Vegas,” as well as by continued traction towards profitability and growth in the Digital business.”
It was a good day yesterday for Boyd Gaming as it trotted out its 4Q22 numbers. Cash flow healthily overshot Wall Street expectations and was powered by, among other things, better-than-2019 visitation by that Boyd mainstay, players from Hawaii. Wrote J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff, “The growth in Locals was driven by destination business (tourists and out-of-towners) and non-gaming operations (we note that these trends have to be very positive for Red Rock Resorts who has yet to report) and continued strength in play from its core customers.” Despite softness in Louisiana and Mississippi, Boyd improved its numbers in the Midwest and South, helped along by strength in the online segment and by performance-based management fees from successful, new Sky River Casino near Sacramento.
We begin today with kudos to a non-casino entrepreneur, Bart Blatstein, who has erected a 150-foot Christmas tree in front of the Showboat. It’s said to be the first large-scale tree in Boardwalk history. Thank you, sir. And to get the comedy relief out of the way, our Atlantic City correspondent paid a visit to Bally’s Atlantic City and discovered another reason why it’s mired in last place. His visit began well: “We asked for a room close to the elevator with a shower (not a bathtub). We got the first room close to the elevator, with excellent ocean-front views.”
Things started to unravel from thereon. “On Sunday, I went up to their sixth floor restaurant level. Longo’s had hours posted, Sunday opens at 5 p.m. Their (alleged) VIP lounge closes at 5 p.m. but my wife refuses to go there after our last experience, so we missed the choice of ham & cheese or a hamburger. We went up at 5:30 and Longo’s never opened. Guy Fieri’s was closed. Their other restaurant closes at 2 p.m. So, the only choices for food on Sunday at 5:30 are Dunkin Donuts, their pizza place or their sandwich shop. Is Bally’s supposed to be a ‘major casino’? Not to us it’s not.” Chicagoans, be afraid. Be very afraid.
Ocean Casino Resort has unveiled its pricey new sports book and our Atlantic City correspondent deems it nothing short of “spectacular! In the center is a circular bar, surrounded by TV screens. There is a set of steps (and elevator) to the Balcony Bar overlooking the main area. Borgata‘s sports book used to be number-one in being attractive. Not any longer.” Our man on the town stayed at Hard Rock Atlantic City and reports “it’s much nicer here at Hard Rock than Bally’s; here you can choose from four or five breakfast places that are open.” Meanwhile, all bets are off for the Golden Nugget and Resorts Atlantic City. They have until Tuesday to reach terms with Unite-Here and if they poor-mouth the union then pickets are a certainty.
It was eyeball-to-eyeball and Big Gaming blinked. Faced with probable, heavy losses of business, Borgata—the casino with the most to lose—was first to come to terms with Local 54 of Unite-Here. Terms with most of the majors were reached an hour before the strike deadline, resulting in what union prexy Robert McDevitt called “the best contract we’ve ever had.” Kudos to MGM Resorts International for doing the right thing by its workers. Said McDevitt to reporter Wayne Parry, “We got everything we wanted and everything we needed. The workers delivered a contract that they can be proud of for years to come.” Caesars Entertainmentwas quick to follow MGM’s lead, with Harrah’s Resort housekeeper Ronnette Lark exulting, “I’ve been here 24 years and we’ve never gotten a raise like this. We got big raises.” How big remains to be seen, pending ratification of the deal and negotiations with the four independent casinos that were spared a strike deadline.
Atlantic City casinos leapt 17% from March 2021, grossing $216.5 million. Except for Tropicana Atlantic City, which was flat at $19 million, almost everyone posted relatively impressive gains. Borgata‘s $55 million (+18%) predictably topped the market, while Hard Rock Atlantic City (shown) surged 28% to $39 million. Ocean Casino Resort was up 26% to $25.5 million. Harrah’s Resort performed best of the Caesars Entertainment threesome, climbing 12.5% to $20 million, while Caesars Atlantic City dipped 4.5% down to $18.5 million. Bunched together at the bottom were Bally’s Atlantic City, Resorts Atlantic City and Golden Nugget, in that order. Bally’s seems to be showing momentum, moving up two notches in the hierarchy, gaining 36% on a gross of $13.5 million, while Resorts notched $13 million, an 8% hike and the Nugget brought up the rear with $12.5 million, a 16% climb nevertheless.
Wow, inflation really is spiraling. When last we checked (i.e., yesterday), a New York City casino license was going for $500 million. However, if some state senators get their way, that not-inconsiderable price tag will rocket to $1 billion. According to a senatorial state budget, snuck out on Sunday, New York State “shall determine a licensing fee to be paid by a licensee within thirty days after the award of the license which shall be deposited into the commercial gaming revenue fund; provided however that such licensing fee shall be no less than one billion dollars per license.” The Assembly has put no dollar amount on the license.
You have to wonder: If that’s the price of admission, is it worth it? Should MGM Empire City and Resorts World New York just stick with VLTs? Not to worry, senators have an incentive for them to pony up, essentially guaranteeing them licensure: Lawmakers would have to “consider private capital investment made previous to the effective date.” In other words, capex investments would be discounted from the license price. Expect Las Vegas Sands and others to cry foul.
November was another terrific month for Maryland casinos, as revenues picked up a bit from October, accumulating 14% more than in November 2019.. (If inflation is so bad, where do Marylanders find all this money with which to gamble, one wonders? But anyway … ) After a month out of the top spot, MGM National Harbor was back at #1, grossing $68 million, a 26% leap by the lion. Maryland Live was not quite so buoyant, up 10% to $58 million. Horseshoe Baltimore tumbled 15% to $16 million, remaining the problem child of Caesars Entertainment. Business was slightly slower at Rocky Gap Resort, up 11.5% to $5 million, while Ocean Downs cantered +22.5% to $6.5 million and Hollywood Perryville gained 22% to $7 million. Despite flat slot revenues, West Virginia casinos garnered 3% more last month, on the strength of robust (+18%) table win. Hollywood Charles Town Races was particularly fortunate, climbing 4% at the slots and 32% at the tables.
In hopes of having online sports betting operational in time for the Super Bowl, Empire State gaming regulators announced their picks for the state’s nine OSB license applications late yesterday. Winners were BetMGM (just as Bill Hornbuckle predicted), DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars Sportsbook, Bally’s, Resorts World, PointsBet, WynnBet and Rush Street Interactive. Each will have to partner with a brick-and-mortar casino and pay 51% of gross gaming revenue in taxes, plus $25 million upfront, making the real winner New York State. Forbes calculates it will see a $493 million windfall by 2025. Losers were led by Barstool Sports, which missed the brass ring, a bitter pill for Penn National Gaming to swallow. Could Barstool’s brash image have been a problem? Others out in the cold are bet365 (which rashly tweeted “I will own New York”), theScore, Fanatics and FoxBet.
If they can scrape together $500 million (which shouldn’t be a problem in this investment climate), developers David Daneshforooz and Bill Shopoff have the Clark County Commission‘s blessing to move forward with the Dream casino-hotel. Despite a raft of security concerns that the Las Vegas Review-Journal summarized as “potential illegal drone flying, laser lights, shooting attacks and even bombs hidden in garbage trucks,” commissioners approved it 6-1. The project will have 527 hotel rooms but at present seems to lack a target audience, with Shopoff rather wishfully stating Dream “will find our following” among Las Vegas tourists put off by multi-thousand-room resorts. Dream will be good news for the Pinball Hall of Fame, which will be its next-door neighbor and might be close enough to Allegiant Stadium to give Raider Nation a place to crash.
Shopoff and Daneshforooz will spend an extra $10 million to allay the worries of the TSA and a coalition of major airlines, none of whom is clearly on board with the new, improved Dream. The proposed security wall with McCarran International Airport will be reinforced and the hotel tower itself will be moved further away from the airport and closer to Las Vegas Boulevard. A security checkpoint and other deterrents will be added. There won’t be any guest-room balconies anymore, the pool will be ringed with a high fence and the parking garage will be fully enclosed. Oh, and if you break a window, security will automatically be alerted. It may be Fort Dream, but it’s also several reassuring steps in the right direction.
Pennsylvania was late to the casino-recovery party but it’s finally arrived, up 1% in July over 2019 for a gross of $310 million, of which $223 million was won at the slots. The good news may be short-lived, in that Hollywood York opened on August 12, contributing to the saturation of casinos we are seeing in the Keystone State. Parx Casino was way out in front of everybody else, grossing $58.5 million for a 14.5% gain. Elsewhere in the Philadelphia market, Rivers Philadelphia regained the edge on Philadelphia Live, winning $23.5 million, an 8% decline from 2019 but much better than in recent months. The Cordish Gaming competitor slipped to $22 million but bested Harrah’s Philadelphia‘s $17 million (-15%) while Valley Forge Resort Casino dipped 2% to $11.5 million.
In the Pittsburgh area, Pittsburgh Live garnered $10 million while Rivers Pittsburgh gained a percentage point to $33 million but The Meadows slid 10.5% to $18 million. Elsewhere, Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs was up 7% to $20.5 million, Wind Creek Bethlehem slipped 6% but posted an impressive $42.5 million and Mount Airy netted $20 million in a 21% leap. Presque Isle Downs gained 7% to $12 million, Hollywood Penn National dipped 4.5% to $19.5 million and luckless Lady Luck Nemacolin fell 22% to $2.5 million.
We Americans sure do love us some gambling. Maryland‘s July numbers just came in and it’s 20.5% (!) ahead of 2019. Casinos won $180 million and two extra weekend days obviously helped the tally. MGM National Harbor led with $72 million (+19%), outpacing Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli‘s $64.5 million forecast. Maryland Live locked up a 35% market share and $63 million in winnings, up 28%. Penn National Gaming was just in time in reacquiring Hollywood Perryville on July 1, $9 million gross was a 34.5% improvement on two years ago. Ocean Downs leapt 28% to $10.5 million and Rocky Gap Resort‘s $6 million was a 22% gain. And in what has to be a triumph for Horseshoe Baltimore, it was flat with 2019, grossing $19 million. So there’s some hope for it yet. West Virginia casinos nudged 5% above 2019 numbers, driven by a 34% increase in table win. Hollywood Charles Town was up 7%, 1% higher at the slots and vaulting 42% at the tables.
Penn had Wall Street analysts eating out its hand after the latest earnings call. “Memes [and] grandiose proclamations run wild” wrote Santarelli. “Well, this one was interesting. Between the call commentary, 95% of which was focused on a business that, as we have said for some time, will likely never amount to more than 20% of total Company [cash flow], if it is wildly successful, the social media promotion that began immediately, and the post call livestream ‘pumpapalooza’, PENN threw all it had at the retail investment community to promote a transaction, which, in our view, speaks to exactly what we have been saying for some time, the sports, and especially iCasino, strategies aren’t working.” You see, Penn used the quarterly earnings announcement to hype its acquisition of OSB provider TheScore. “We get that PENN needed a tech stack, but buying a media Company for a tech stack, knowing the challenges peers have had buying tech companies with sports betting tech stacks, seems a bit strange, and frankly, risky. We also get that buying a Canada based company, which has billed itself as a presumptive leader in provincial sports betting, once legalized, seemingly makes sense, but if we have learned any lessons from the US market, the willingness to spend and lose is the path to market share gains, more so than media presence.”
Gaming’s recovery continues unabated in the Free State. Maryland gambling revenues for June were $161.5 million, a 13% gain on 2019. $64 million of that went to MGM National Harbor, up 12% and hoarding 39.5% market share. Maryland Live chugged along with $58.5 million, a 19% gain—and 36% market share—and Hollywood Perryville booked $8 million for a 21% leap. Vaulting 29%, Ocean Downs won $9 million, while Rocky Gap Casino was up 12.5% to $6. Did Gary Loveman build Horseshoe Baltimore on an Indian burial ground? Alone among Maryland casinos it was revenue-negative. It grossed $17 million for a 9% decline. West Virginia casinos finally caught up with the 2019 pace, being only 1% down from that halcyon year. Slot winnings were flat, tables down 6%. At Hollywood Charles Town Races, revenues actually outpaced 2019 by 5%, with a 6% slot gain overcoming an 1% dip at the tables.
It’s highly uncommon in our experience for a Wall Street analyst to put a “sell” rating on a stock but that’s just what Deutsche Bank‘s Carlo Santarelli did to Penn National Gaming yesterday. Penn has been the darling of The Street ever since it eviscerated the company during the Great Shutdown, which did wonders for its margins. The stock is trading at $72/share and Santarelli put a $31 price target on it. Why? Primarily because he believes Penn’s Internet gambling operations and Barstool Sports are “considerably overvalued” relative to its performance so far. (Shades of DraftKings.) He’s also skeptical of forecasts that call for year after year of revenue growth when he sees an upcoming contraction, especially compared to lean-and-mean 2021. Not even the additions of Hollywood Perryville and two slot parlors in Pennsylvania alleviate his gloom. Penn has tantalized Wall Street with preannouncements of $1.5 billion in 2Q21 revenue, a bit of bare ankle that may have been intended to distract from the issuance of $400 million in new debt.
Casinos in the Free State jetted 13% above 2019 levels, grossing $172 million, a new record. MGM National Harbor led with $68.5 million (+16%) and 40% market share. Maryland Live was up 15% to $61.5 million for 35.5% market share, while Hollywood Perryville justified Penn National Gaming‘s faith in the property, jumping 23% to $8.5 million. Ocean Downs gained 19%, also to $8.5 million and Rocky Gap Casino was up 21.5% to $6 million. The only loser was—you guessed it—Horseshoe Baltimore, sagging 5% to $19.5 million. New management at Caesars Entertainment has announced no plans for the property and it’s an open question whether they have any. Now would be a good time. Over in West Virginia, casinos continue to lag the 2021 recovery, down 18%, with Penn Charles Town further behind at -20%. Overall, slots were a relative bright spot, -17%, negated by a -21% dive at the tables.
“I think there’s incredible resiliency,” restaurant impresario Elizabeth Blau says of Las Vegas. There needs to be, as the Great Shutdown took a scythe to Sin City’s dining scene. “Now with the Virgin hotel opening, Resorts World opening, and numerous hotels having major restaurant openings. Major arenas reopening—the old Vegas is roaring back,” Blau contends. The cascade of debuts includes Virgin Las Vegas‘ One Steakhouse (March), Linq Promenade‘s Sweet Sin (April) and Wynncore‘s long-awaited Delilah (July), all perfectly timed to trade in on Las Vegas’ comeback. And that’s to say nothing of the 40-plus eateries Resorts World Las Vegas will unleash upon the market, with something for every price point. Even buffets are returning, albeit few and cautiously. However, if restaurants are on the rebound, their workers aren’t getting the memo. “Half our union is still not back to work. We have half the union back to work and the other half is still waiting for the jobs. Waiting for when they call them back,” groused the Culinary Union‘s Geoconda Argüello-Kline. Even the new ‘right to return’ law can’t redress that.
Maryland didn’t just do well in April, it posted its third-best month ever. Gaming win grew 11.5% from 2019, to $162 million. That’s with 50% capacity constraints at MGM National Harbor and Horseshoe Baltimore (all other casinos are operating at 100%). MGM still took 38.5% of market share with a $62.5 million gross, up 2.5%. Maryland Live was second with 36% market share, hauling in 22% more than in 2019 and grossing $58 million. Horseshoe was flat with 2019, cantering in a distant third (12% market share) with $20 million. Speaking of cantering, Ocean Downs crossed the finish line with $8 million, a 30% boost. Hollywood Perryville leapt 36.5% to $8.5 million and Rocky Gap Casino gained 19% to $6 million. Even West Virginia is looking a little better. Over a three-week period ending April 24, it was down only 14%, with slots (-14%) propping up tables (-18%). Hollywood Charles Town underperformed the state, as slots declined -21%, tables were off 24%, averaging a 22% decline overall.
While on the subject of Penn National Gaming, it reported 1Q21 results yesterday. JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff described it has having a “very strong regional casino top line,” similar to its peers. Although the quarter saw partial casino closures in New Mexico, Illinois and Pennsylvania, revenues were down only 6% from 2019, while cash flow grew 7% (no doubt due to operational economies). Furthermore, the company “indicated that strength has continued into April and May, with strong spend per visit continuing but now experiencing improved visitation relative to earlier in the pandemic, with a return of the important 55 year-old plus demographic.” Whereas Wall Street consensus had Penn achieving $1.1 billion in revenue and $394 million in cash flow, the company delivered $1.3 billion and $447 million respectively. Revenues from Penn Interactive helped shore up the year/year comparison, while numbers were boosted especially in the South, where dining and casino capacity restrictions have been lifted the most. As for revenue comparisons with last year, they were—as might be expected—all positive, except the West region (Las Vegas and New Mexico), down 24%.
