Fearless Oscar predictions

Time for some amusement among all the heavy lifting: How to ace your office’s Oscar pool. While I had intended to declare Christian Bale the even-money favorite for Best Actor, Rami Malek‘s win at the SAG Awards gives him momentum, as well as the edge among actors playing that favorite Oscar gimmick — portraying Continue reading

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Quote of the Day

“Cuarón’s whiteness begets a colonial gaze; Cleo lacks the discursive inner life of a fleshed-out character; Mexican critics love it; Mexican critics do not love it; Indigenous representation is an accomplishment; rich men should not make movies about their former maids.” — film critic Phoebe Chen getting all het up about Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma.

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Super Bowl generates heavy action; Hard Rock marquee finds retirement home

$325 million. That’s the legal handle that PlayUSA.com is predicting will be wagered on Super Bowl LIII. Nevada will have the plurality of bets, some $160 million, with New Jersey seeing $100 million in action, including online wagers. The nascent Pennsylvania sports-betting market will generate $30 million, followed by Mississippi ($17.5 million), West Virginia ($10 million), Delaware ($5 million), Rhode Island ($1 million), and New Mexico ($500,000, all from one casino). The Silver State, which set a record last year will surpass its own $158.5 million high-water mark and should hold $1.2 million of the money bet (which shows you why high sports-betting taxes make no sense). Of the Garden State, PlayNJ.com analyst Dustin Gouker predicted, “The excitement of being able to legally place a bet for the first time in New Jersey, an intriguing matchup with two high-powered offenses and plenty of star power, and the proliferation of proposition bets, should all combine to make for an impressive total.” And while we’re on the subject, PR Newswire, just call it the Super Bowl, not the pusillanimous “NFL’s Big Game.”

Point-spread bettors be warned: The Los Angeles Rams have a dreadful record of covering the spread this season. Perhaps that is why the overwhelming percentage of action is on the New England Patriots. Meanwhile, reinforcing its message of why Continue reading

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Quote of the Day

“But now that all of the facts have surfaced, it is now clear to me that you were part of a live-action, true-to-scale diorama depicting the actions of white men at most protests for justice, equality or freedom. In fact, I think you should be applauded for your patience and acting ability.” — Michael Harriot, in “An Open Apology to the Covington Catholic MAGA Hat Harassment Team.”

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Japan lays down the law; Back to square one for Rush Street

Japan hasn’t issued requests for proposals for casino megaresorts — not that it has stopped companies like Hard Rock International from pitching their product to prefectures. However, the Japanese government is rolling out advertising regulations and they are stringent. The only places advertisements will be allowed will be in the passenger terminals of airports and seaports. No ads on buses on trains, let alone visitor centers (even though the casinos are primarily targeted at tourists). More rules are expected to be promulgated, as the second phase of casino legalization in Nippon continues. The Land of the Rising Sun seems to be in no hurry to issue RFPs even though top gaming developers are champing at the bit.

* If Rush Street Gaming thinks it has a slam dunk for Brockton, now that the Massachusetts Gaming Commission is considering Continue reading

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Quote of the Day

“This is so much bigger than any one person. It’s a little bit of pain, but it’s going to be for the future of our country and their children and their grandchildren and generations after them will thank them for their sacrifice right now.” — Lara Trump, tweeting in support of the government shutdown, the longest in U.S. history.

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Tunica blues; Monticello racino folds early

“An aquatic center? A practice soccer field? They could have reconstructed this entire neighborhood.” So says Tunica resident Larry James of the misguided priorities that are leaving the county high and dry as the casino boom implodes. It certainly seems short-sighted of Tunica leadership to have built an airport and sports arena with casino-
driven tax money that now is a shadow of its former self. Some blame the casino industry for not paying higher taxes, others find it an unreliable source of income, like the security guard who will quit the business when his job at Tunica Roadhouse expires along with the casino at Continue reading

Posted in Dining, Economy, Genting, Harrah's, history, Horseracing, Law enforcement, Massachusetts, MGM Resorts International, Mississippi, Mohegan Sun, Neil Bluhm, New York, Pennsylvania, Regulation, Rush Street Gaming, Tribal | 1 Comment

Sands disappoints Wall Street

Las Vegas Sands reported 4Q18 results yesterday and the result wasn’t what Wall Street had been hoping. Take the rapidly morphing reaction of Credit Suisse analyst Cameron McKnight. He went from “Good Read Thru” to “Disappointing 4Q Against Elevated Expectations” to “Not Lighting Cigars This Time.” At JP Morgan, analyst Joseph Greff shaved three dollars off his price target, lowering it to $57/share. Greff also cited Macao results that undershot expectations, as well as “softer than anticipated results in Singapore,” where Resorts World Sentosa is apparently clawing back some market share. Las Vegas was a saving grace “with attractive y/y growth in table drop, slot volume and room revenues.” While there were no progress reports on the new St. Regis suites in Macao, nor on conversion of Sands Cotai Central into The Londoner, the “continues to believe that its properties, and the Macau market overall, is capacity constrained (rooms/suites) on weekends and holidays and this investment should bear long term attractive returns.”

Management tried to manage expectations, saying of Macao “trees don’t Continue reading

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Quote of the Day

“The importance of experience is that it is protection against the disruption or the obsolescence of the real estate. If it’s a great place-based experience, it is something that Amazon, at least yet, has not figured out how to put in a box [and] ship to your house, such that it dislocates the real estate literally and figuratively.” — Vici Properties CEO Ed Pitoniak, on the value of experience-based entertainment.

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Next stop: Virginia; Lady Gaga erupts

Lawmakers in Virginia have voted a “mashup casino bill” out of committee, sending it along to the Senate Finance Committee for further scrutiny. The legislation would authorize five casinos in BristolDanville, Portsmouth, Richmond and Norfolk respectively and juices the Pamunkey Indian Tribe into one of the casinos. The latter has declared its willingness to waive sovereignty and operate a private-sector casino along the same rules as everyone else. Why? Because the Pamunkey tribe is pursuing federal recognition and runs up against the same Carcieri v. Salazar hurdle that has stalled the Mashpee Wampanoag in Massachusetts. The Pamunkey had been looking at Richmond as a casino market but have lately shifted their courtship to Norfolk. How could they own a casino if not federally recognized? A concerned reader in Virginia reports that they’ll transfer the title to Jon Yarborough of VGT Slots.

Should the legislation makes its way to Gov. Ralph Northam‘s desk it might not get inked, seeing as Northam thinks things are moving Continue reading

Posted in Entertainment, Las Vegas Sands, Maryland, MGM Resorts International, Politics, Taxes, The Strip, Tribal, Vietnam, Virginia | 1 Comment

Quote of the Day

“To be saints is not a privilege for the few but a vocation for everyone.” — Pope Francis

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AFL goes to A.C.; Majestic Star coming ashore?

In keeping with the new and hard-won sense of prosperity in Atlantic City, the Casino Reinvestment Development Authority hopes to bring arena football to the Boardwalk, specifically to Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall. The early talk is a of three-year public/private partnership to bring Atlantic City within the fold of the AFL. Admittedly, Atlantic City is where professional teams go to die, such as the Atlantic City Seagulls, which went 0-28 in their final season, the only winless season ever recorded in the history of the bygone United States Basketball League. The AFL reacted positively and a formal announcement is expected today. As AFL Executive Committee Chairman Ron Jaworski put it, “in football parlance, we’ve driven 99 yards and we’re first-and-goal from the 1-yard line … I can’t say enough about the overwhelming support we’ve received from the city, the CRDA, the casino industry and the people. Everyone’s been behind this 100 percent.”

Jaws wasn’t the only happy camper. City Council President Marty Small enthused, “Atlantic City is always looking for ways to appeal to residents and visitors with new and different amenities, and this definitely Continue reading

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Louisiana: What happened?; Wynn wins historic victory

While most jurisdictions performed impressively last month, Louisiana was down 2.5%. How to account for the slippage? True, the drive-in driven Shreveport/Bossier City market was off 1.5%. But the real culprit was Baton Rouge, toppling 15.5% and ravaged by the new smoking ban. Even market leader L’Auberge Baton Rouge was down 11% to $12 million. Casino Rouge fell 9% to $4.5 million and Eldorado Resorts had a disastrous month at Belle of Baton Rouge, careening 39% to a meagre $2.5 million. Can they even keep the doors open at that rate. In Shreveport/Bossier City, Penn National Gaming made an inauspicious debut at Margaritaville, slipping 6% to $13.5 million, Eldorado was flat at $10 million and Horseshoe Bossier climbed 1% to $18 million. Sam’s Town grew 7% to $4.5 million, Harrah’s Louisiana Downs hopped 2% to $4 million while Boomtown Bossier was up 4% to $5 million. Diamond Jack’s wants to leave Shreveport and the market reciprocated the sentiment, as manifested in a 17% plummet to $3 million.

At least the unlikely resort town of Lake Charles could be counted upon for good news, right? Not entirely. Penn struggled at L’Auberge du Lac, down 11% to ‘only’ $28 million. Golden Nugget continues to enjoy hard-won primacy, Continue reading

Posted in Boyd Gaming, Caesars Entertainment, Dining, Eldorado Resorts, Environment, GLPI, Greenwood Racing, International, Las Vegas Sands, Louisiana, Macau, Penn National, Pennsylvania, Rush Street Gaming, Sports betting, Tilman Fertitta, Tourism, Vietnam, Wall Street, William Hill, Wynn Resorts | Comments Off on Louisiana: What happened?; Wynn wins historic victory

Massachusetts mulls sports betting

Massachusetts is expected to be one of the prime movers on the sports-betting front and, to that end, three bills have been filed in the Lege, no doubt much to the interest of homeboys DraftKings, the New England Patriots and Boston Celtics, among others. The most industry-friendly is state Sen. James Welch‘s, which would tax sports-betting revenue at 6.75% and would split sports betting into two categories, with the second category being venues like Plainridge Park that lack table games. Then there’s state Sen. Brendan Crighton‘s bill, which would legalize mobile wagering and contains a ‘bad actor’ that would redline any company found to have conducted illegal Internet wagering. It would tax revenues at 12.5%, set entry fees at $500,000 with $100,000 renewal charges. Least helpful is state Sen. Bruce Tarr‘s proposal for an 11-member commission to “consider the impact” on the Bay State. Because there’s nothing like a ‘fact-finding mission’ to put your tax dollars to good use. At least the chain would be yanked on Tarr’s committee after six months of study. But Massachusetts would probably be no closer to legal sports betting than before.

* Sports betting is paying off in a big way for Mississippi‘s Gulf Coast casinos, which are reporting Continue reading

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Adelson sparks firestorm

When Bill Miller was appointed CEO of the American Gaming Association, we speculated that his relationship with Sheldon Adelson would be “less strained” than that of predecessor Geoff Freeman. Indeed, that already seems to be the case. It would account for the AGA’s slow and mostly supine response to the Department of Justice‘s newly expansive reading of the Federal Wire Act. Already, Global Gaming Business is pointing the finger of culpability in the Wire Act rereading in Adelson’s direction. Big Gaming has been given three months to formulate its reaction, thanks to Deputy US Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. “But reaction is difficult since the industry doesn’t know what the specific rules might be or how the DOJ would enforce the decision.” GGB is of the opinion that shared online-liquidity poker in Nevada, Delaware and New Jersey might be imperiled. Daily fantasy sports might be forced to stop taking wagers across state lines. Former Garden State legislator Raymond Lesniak reacted with a mixture of weariness and self-aggrandizement, telling one publication, “Looks like I will have to go to court again to straighten out the Justice Department’s overreaching on states’ rights as I did with sports betting. This opinion is outrageous. It puts state lotteries at risk and state revenues. If Congress won’t fix it, I will through the judicial process.”

Making a clever pun, former presidential hopeful Ron Paul wrote, Continue reading

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Oh, what a tangled web we weave …

… when we call our new casino Circa. An S&G source has done some research on the matter and found that “Circa” is trademarked to Michigan company NMH Acquisition. The Patent Office gave Circa “trademark serial number of 87960443.” NMH stands for National Mentor Holdings and it sold the Circa trademark to an unnamed buyer (probably answering to the name Derek Stevens) in December. However, this does not mean that NMH is unconnected to Las Vegas. Its parent company, Vestar, owns The District at Green Valley Ranch. Also, Vestar owner Leon Tsoukernik has been sued by poker player Matt Kirk over $3 million that Tsoukernik lost to Kirk at Aria. The indebted Mr. T is also owner of Kings Casino in the Czech Republic. He countersued Kirk and Aria, citing the familiar complaint that Aria management had conspired to get him drunk in order that Continue reading

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Quote of the Day

“The ultimate tragedy is not the oppression and cruelty by the bad people but the silence over that by the good people.” — Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

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Wall Street says the “R” word; The wrath of Rufus Peabody

Credit Suisse analyst Cameron McKnight has uttered the word most dreaded around Las Vegas: recession. He’s even come up with some projections. “Based on our long-term Strip model, we can see a recession scenario for the Strip in which revenue is down 14% y/y, expenses down 7% y/y and Adjusted EBITDA down 26%.” Those compare to 20%, 7% and 40% the last time around. Since CityCenter, Encore and Palazzo all opened in the teeth of the Great Recession, “the past recession saw supply growth and increased competition at the trough.” Also, “Vegas gaming revenues were structurally higher as there wasn’t as much regional and Native American competition as today.” Of all Vegas-centric stocks, McKnight favors Caesars Entertainment most, writing, “we like its more defensive domestic gaming-focused business, its mix of regional and Vegas assets, significantly undervalued real estate, potential share gains in Vegas, growth from renovated assets, and potential activist and corporate interest.” He adds that investors are not so enthusiastic, waiting and seeing how the CEO change plays out, and concerned about how highly leveraged the company remains. Continue reading

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Cuomo bets on sports; Resorts World LV disowns own designs

It looks as though New York State will split the baby on sports wagering: Casino-based betting in 2019, mobile wagering in 2022. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has baked what Credit Suisse analyst Cameron McKnight calls “a small amount of sports betting revenues” into his next budget but a statewide expansion of sports betting would require a referendum, most likely in November 2021. “New York is one of the most populous, wealthy and sports-mad states, and we think investors are more likely to seriously ascribe value for sports when they can see it around them,” writes McKnight, who projects $456 million in gross revenues by Year Three, with the addition of mobile wagering in 2022 bringing in another $380 million. “New York is clearly an important state, with: 20mm people, per capita income 1.2x the national average and 3.5% per capita income growth at 1.4x the national average.” The Empire State will also be the decisive battleground for integrity fees, since Continue reading

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Re-reversing the Wire Act: What it means

Last weekend’s flip-flop by the Justice Department‘s stance on the Federal Wire Act has spurred a fair amount of chin scratching in the gaming industry. Global Market Advisors notes the immediate implication: “The action, which at best can be described as reversing a reversal, raises several concerns for the gaming industry, especially for online gaming that occurs in the states of Nevada, New Jersey, and Delaware, with active startups underway in Pennsylvania.” Mobile gambling (legal in Nevada), DFS and even lotteries may be affected. In the inciting memo, Acting Assistant Attorney General Steven Engel wrote, “While the Wire Act is not a model of artful drafting, we conclude that the words of the statute are sufficiently clear and that all but one of its prohibitions sweep beyond sports gambling.” Engel’s memo, write GMA analysts, “only raises further questions on how responsible operators should act in the current environment.”

The Wire Act is a legacy is of Robert F. Kennedy‘s tenure as attorney general and formerly applied to all forms of gambling except Continue reading

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