Good idea doing this close to the end of the season, while it's kinda fresh.
Quick question: Have you been listening to a bunch of Colin Cowherd's radio show recently? He is always talking about which cities attract players, and how it is affects things. I like the general idea of down teams that might be selling, but don't think the Reds fit the bill playing in the terrible NL central with mostly younger talent. I'm not sure about the overachiever qualifier from the year before in general. Which teams would this have worked for that overachieved in 2008-2009 and went under in 09-10? Seattle would be one I guess.
In baseball lately the RSW numbers now are set real close to the sabermetric predictions that are widely available.. and these do incorporate a lot of regression for teams that were deemed to be overachievers the year before. Yankees come in 2nd place in the division this year and actually win a season wins over bet. In the past they would have been lined at 98 or something. So, I do think there is more room in general now to bet the good teams over, and the bad teams under who might unload people. Washington is a team that the #'s guy usually overvalue, and if they start looking low of their total during the season they are likely to sell and the help the cause. Most of these projections are going to be made based on static rosters with playing time accounting for injuries, but not much player movement. Of course sometimes you get teams like the Astros who trade their roster away and still go over "MOST" regular season wins numbers. ;)
