957 Phillies/Giants OVER 6 (-115)

957 Phillies/Giants OVER 6 (-115) Full disclosure, my totals have been under 50% this year and I hate playing OVERS but this one really looks right to me. The wind is gusting out WSW between 15-23 MPH and expected to continue. Giants offense may have gotten a little spark after last game and the Phillies offense has been rolling. Combine that with Bumgarner's tendency to give up the big inning and the most of the Giants roster having confidence against Cliff Lee I will be betting this one goes over. I know this opened at 6.5 so going against the move and I know that with this Giants offense UNDERs have been the winning play but this first game of this series will produce some runs in my opinion. I also like Rowand playing instead of Torres against the lefty. Good luck to all.

It's always that windy in San Francisco unless we're getting a heat wave, which we haven't had in a month and won't get for at least another week. It's OK to go against the crowd as long as you get the best number. I'd bet Lee -130 before I'd bet the total. Bumgarner's a victim of poor run support, but Lee should still be at least -150 here.

True it is windy in SF, but 20 MPH gusts are still high for the ballpark. This will be the windiest game this week, but that does not mean anything. Bumgarner has also been a victim of having some bad innings against Cincy and Minn. I think the fact that the number is where it is on Lee is largely because of him being a very average pitcher the last month. He also has pitched 155 innings this year and that is nothing to ignore. No doubt that paying the high price for the Phillies on the ML this year has largely paid off and it still may, but to me 6 is low for this game. Thanks for the input.