Active MLB SDQL Query of the Day -- Week of 8/29

Active MLB SDQL Query of the Day -- Week of 8/29 The Angels are 12-0 since July 2008 when Jered Weaver starts at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games. The SDQL text is: [B]starter = Jered Weaver and H and op:W and opp:W and date>=20080701[/B] The op:W means that the opponent won their previous game and opp:W means that the opponent won their second previous game. Prof M.

So are you betting LAAAA of A @ -215?

Betting?? The SDQL Query of the day is provided for the sole purpose of introducing the readers to the Sports Data Query Language. The SDQL is easy-to-use, tremendously powerful AND it is free. Anyone on the planet with internet access can interrogate, investigate and datamine the NFL, NBA and MLB past results. My SDQL Queries of the Day are provided as examples of SDQL text. Not recommended plays. Whether the Angels are a good play at -210 requires more research. I guess there are two types of readers of this blog -- the first are looking for someone to tell them what to bet and the second are people who want to learn how to pick their own winners. The SDQL Query of the day is designed for the latter of the two. The plays I post are for the former of the two. Prof Meyer

Yes, I wish somebody could pick some winners in baseball. I will incorporate some of this model into Walter and my model and see what it spits out.

Winners in baseball. Baseball is so tough because all of the crazy stuff that happens. In baseball you have more losers when on the right side of the game than in any other sport. You have to have a thick skin to handicap baseball. Prof M.

8.30.10 The Mariners are 0-13 since May 18, 2009 as a dog in a series opener vs a team that has lost at least their last two games. The SDQL is: [B]team = Mariners and D and SG=1 and o:streak =20090518[/B] Running the query reveals that the M's have lost by an average of 4.0 runs per game in this spot. Prof M.

Good queries but is it predictive or noise?

As a general rule I would look for trends that are opposite the team's record. In this case, the Mariners suck, so 0-13 trends are easier to find. Find me a trend during the past season or two during which the Mariners are 13-0, and if it doesn't involve things like number of people in the stands or whether Sleater-Kinney were in town, and you've got something. These types of considerations will reduce the number of "useful" queries, but it will make the remaining ones more effective. I'd said this in a different thread, but I'd rather go 5-2 than 40-35. I'm the railbird here. It's always easier to point out faults than to do anything yourself :)

[QUOTE=Fezzik;26013]but is it predictive or noise?[/QUOTE] Great question. It is THE question. If I knew the answer I wouldn't have to work!! Prof M.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;26014]As a general rule I would look for trends that are opposite the team's record. In this case, the Mariners suck, so 0-13 trends are easier to find. Find me a trend during the past season or two during which the Mariners are 13-0, and if it doesn't involve things like number of people in the stands or whether Sleater-Kinney were in town, and you've got something.[/QUOTE] You are 100% correct here. I will try to avoid trends like this in the future. Nonetheless, I would offer the average margin as a useful parameter. The fact that the Mariners lost 13 straight in this situation as a dog, might not be that useful. However, the fact that they lost by an average of 4.0 runs per game is something to think about. Also, I like the logic of the situation. A team is in need of a win and they are a favorite over the Mariners in a series opener. The change should do them good. I would guess that the Mariners get a lot of wins because their opponent overlooks them or is overconfident. This will not be the case with a team on a losing streak. Further, the Mariners might adopt a defeatist attitude in this spot. So, I guess I'm proposing that the "0-13 as a dog" trend is better than average because it make handicapping sense (to me anyway) and because of the 4.0 average margin of defeat. Prof Meyer