AL East Preview

AL East Preview No bets for me in this division but I'm thinking of betting the Blue Jays over their RSW total which is 80.5-142 over currently at Pinnacle but I've mostly found 81 and 81.5 in Reno. Last year I recall the Jays were 76.5 or so and I didn't think the Rays were 10 games better than they were. I was either going to bet the Jays over or the Rays under. I chose the Jays over and I've learned alot about the Rays since then. This year the Rays are around 87 wins and I'm still not sure the Rays are that many games better than the Jays but I've learned to respect the Rays Defense, management and the obvious starting pitching. If not for that knowledge i would figure they were an under from this number. I think the Jays are loaded. They've won this many games and haven't had this good a team in the dominant era of the Yankees and Red Sox. But I have to give 4.5 games to get the same bet over. Why are they loaded? This kid Lawrie that they got from the Brewers has the potential to be an instant star. That was the Marcum trade. Bautista will be back. Escobar has shown to be a very good hitter so far. Nevertheless, Lind, Rasmus, Edwin E, have the potential to disappoint but also could deliver. The pitching is their big question mark but Alvarez had a good trial last year. Romero is a top 15 SP in the league right now and Morrow might put it all together. They went and got Santos from the White Sox as their closer and added some other guys back there who you'll know and have been decent in the pen. Rajai Davis adds speed for a change of pace in their starting 9 and Snider and Thames are young and have pop in the outfield. Now both have experience. The Yankees are 93 with the upgrade to the starting pitching and bring back the old cast for the starting 9. The Red Sox were around 90 I saw. The starting 9 batting order looks fearsome again. With these top 4 teams everyone has fewer wins than they should after they split series against each other. I thought I saw Baltimore around 70 wins. I have no affinity for them that they will have some big upside surprise I'll assume they're lousy. And they have what is it 72 or 76 games to look forward to vs. these 4 other guys.

Agree with your assessment. Baltimore is the NY Mets of the AL East. I was really hoping for Red Sox at 88 so I could bet the over. It is hard to pull the trigger on 90. The square in me expects a fast start by Boston to prove they still have it.

Good spew, Skeeter

Thanks Tim. I'm getting down to the final decisions that have to be made on RSW bets and I've played some good numbers and perhaps some of them won't end up that good and I'd just as soon get away from them. I have a bet on the Blue Jays over 81-115 and I noted that you also made the play at over 80.5 I assume somewhere offshore like Pinnacle. I thought I'd throw out some notes on the Jays here from the spring as I look at some stats. Their hitting gets a lot of discussion and their power but here are some key lines of their top SP from the spring: Romero has gone 2-0 pitched 11 innings and allowed no runs and only 2 hits. Morrow has gone 2-0 0.52 ERA only allowed 10 hits in over 17 innings. Alvarez the young kid called up LY is also 2-0 over 4 starts in the spring 1.64 ERA Cecil who they are more concerned with is 3-0 so far. 3.55 ERA. Drabek part of the Halladay deal but didn't cut it LY 2-0 3.14 This critical to the Jays success. Lawrie has missed some time but has hit over .500 and stole 5 bases in 39 AB. He's a big time prospect. AROD can't hang with this guy potentially. That is the key word--potentially. Bautista has 4 homers. And Thames/Snider battling it out for an OF spot have each had good springs. Thames 12 RBI and Snider 4 homers. I see Pinnacle has moved their number to 83 although the juice is on under so it is not just us. I don't know what to make of the spring and teams records but it is not just that. It is the numbers of the players who are going to be playing and many of the names are known or are well regarded prospects. Even Janssen out of the bullpen has good numbers over the years when healthy and he has put up 9 shutout innings. Santos from the White Sox 5 more shutout innings although that isn't many. The pitching has to be noted. I don't know if Alvarez is for real but I know he is a top prospect. I don't know if Morrow will have a breakthrough. Is Romero actually getting better? Is Drabek ready? Their roster just seems like it has alot of guys in their prime or about to get in their prime and the other teams don't. There is some depth. And Farrell and Anthopolous are solid. We'll see. Somehow these guys always win around 80 games and this year I think they're up a class. Want something to knock? Perhaps the spring of Rasmus who is way down on the offensive charts. But I figure if it is bad enough I guess Snider and Thames will play. Or Rajai Davis will play Rajai has had a good spring. Maybe Rasmus doesn't even have the job in CF. Don't really know. Escobar also has been subpar but it is the spring. And you can say the same things about the guys doing well.

Skeeter, Again, excellent spew. Yes, I got 80.5 at one of my offshore outs. I do agree with your preview of the AL east. I keep thinking that the Bosox will regress slightly this season so it was an under 990.5 for me.