ALCS and NLCS thoughts:

ALCS and NLCS thoughts: [B][U]AL:[/U] Question: A month ago had someone asked you who was the better team, Yankees or Rays, how would you have answered? My guess the answers would have been 50/50. Following this reasoning, if the Rangers got past the Rays, why wouldn't they get past the Yankees? Assuming Cliff Lee is, in fact, unhittable right now and knowing of his recent history of success against the Yanks, the Rangers need to win only two of five to take this series. The Yanks would need four of five assuming the Lee starts are given to be Texas wins (I'm not saying that will be the case but that is one scenario). In my opinion, the starting lineups and starting pitching are close to even. The Rangers had the MLB season leading BA of .276 this season compared to the Yankees .267. The Rangers had a season ERA of 3.93 and the Yanks 4.06. Both had 1.31 team WHIPs. Sure, we can build a case that the Yankee relief staff in the post-Joba era is superior. But I'm not buying that as a reason to back the Yankees in the series and not support the Rangers. Finally, I am not buying the experience factor as a reason to back off the Rangers as I saw a very loose Rangers team in the Rays' series. [U]PREDICTION: Rangers (+160 approx.) in SEVEN games[/U] [U]NL:[/U] ***QUALIFIER: I AM A LIFELONG GIANTS FAN*** That said, I will try to be a realist. I looked at the regular season stats and you can challenge me on this: statistically, the Giants have an edge on the Phils in pitching, hitting and fielding. Okay, Phillie fans, I know, you guys had many injuries and did not get healthy until late in the season when you were unbeatable, blah, blah, blah..... But let's not forget how well the Giants performed in September. Look at the hitting syles of both these teams, they are similar. Are you aware that the Phils had four more HR's than the Giants (166 to 162)? Yes, the Phils did have substantially more RBI's (736 to 660) than the Jints but the Phils only played a small amount of their games facing the west coast offense (there I go again, not foots, I know). But let's get real! The Giants winning this series will be a tall task. You can tell where my heart is but one should not bet with their heart. If this series started in San Fran and the Giants had the home field advantage going in, I know I would back "My Giants" (old book), but unfortunately, the series starts and the home field edge is with the Phils. [U]PREDICTION: ..................................... (will have a small flyer on the Jints)[/U] GL, RUDY[/B]

Love your stuff and thanks for posting. If your backing Texas one would hope to see Joba. Very over rated if not a bust.

[QUOTE=sunnyisle69;30022]Love your stuff and thanks for posting. If your backing Texas one would hope to see Joba. Very over rated if not a bust.[/QUOTE] [B]Thanks, sunny! I really do not think we will see much of Joba in Game One, tonight. However, I can see the Yanks pen stretched in/by Games Two and Three and Joba used simply because the Yanks will need fresh arms. (NOTE: Tonight I do have plays on OVER 8 and Tex OVER 3.5 as I believe the extended wait will hurt CC and, also, CJ has basically one pitch he can rely on, his fastball...the Yanks love their fastballs!) GL, RUDY[/B]

ALCS Saturday [B]OVER NYY/Tex 9 -110 I have no idea how either team, esp. the Rangers will spell r-e-l-i-e-f today (Mariano aside), hence the OVER. (One scenario: whether he throws well or poorly, Hughes seldom goes more than 6 innings...I suspect he goes less than 6...now that CC will be ready for game 4, I suspect we see AJ Burnett go long in relief today...either way, the combination of Hughes and AJ will give up at least 4 runs, probably more) GL, RUDY[/B]

NLCS and ALCS Tuesday [B]Today I will be playing the Giants and OVER in the Tex/NYY game. I have a lean to the Rangers and a small lean to OVER in SF. [U]Plays:[/U] - Giants: two pitchers with very similar season stats and two teams who know how to hit in their own parks. Last time I looked, this game was to be played in SF. HUGE home field advantage! - OVER Tex/NYY: one cannot trust either of these starters and relief continues to be suspect on both sides. Rangers tend to "baby" Hunter, hence the norm is for him to go only 5 or 6; then what? Number (9.5) is high for a playoff game but Rangers will get to AJ and game should get messy in later innings. [U]Leans:[/U] - Rangers: more of a go against NYY pick than anything. Also, one has to love the way Rangers are seeing the ball. - OVER Phil/SF: two pitchers with prolonged rest; something will go wrong with one or the other or both. Made this a small lean at 6.5, will wait until post time as we may see some 6's out there, in which case, I'm on this one a bit stronger. Factor in Panda and the home crowd. GL, RUDY[/B]

Great call for the Over, Rudy, in the Texas-NY game and the development of 'messy' in the later innnings of that game.

[QUOTE=Beerman5353;30422]Great call for the Over, Rudy, in the Texas-NY game and the development of 'messy' in the later innnings of that game.[/QUOTE] [B]Thanks, Lagerman....back at you later with my thoughts on today's twin-bill. RUDY[/B]

ALCS and NLCS Wednesday [B]Today, once again, I have plays on Texas and SF. I have opinions on the totals, but will pass on both, not even leans. [U]AL:[/U] The mindset of those who set lines and how the public thinks: [I]OMG, the Yanks might not advance, they have their best pitcher going today, let's set the opening line at -165 and let it drift into the -170's. After all, the Yanks have won like 6,000 pennants so they HAVE TO WIN today.[/I] We know what happens when teams HAVE TO WIN. Let's break down today's game: Despite what the NY press says, despite what the books say (see above) the Yankees are just playing poor baseball and getting out muscled. The Yankees have not scored more than two runs in one inning during this series except once, being that 8th inning of game one where the Rangers reenacted a scene from "The Bad News Bears". The Yanks are demoralized and the loss of Texeira will worsens things. Of course, Sabathia has to pitch better than in Game One, but, unless he goes at least 7 innings, the Yankees put themselves at risk with a shattered relief. Wilson did his part in Game One and should continue where he left off. I said it yesterday and will say it again, the Rangers are seeing the ball while the Yanks are not. Sometimes it seems the Rangers know what pitch is coming at them (no conspiracy theories there, just an observation). Enough of this; although never a Yankee fan or hater, I do not want to beat up on them too much. In what is a MUST WIN game, A-Rod has beaver on his mind, Jeter is thinking about his honeymoon with one mighty fine looking lady, Gerardi has his mind on which team will take him next and as for the rest of the team, tee times are on their minds. [U]NL:[/U] I will leave the heavy-lifting analysis on this one to Tim but I have to point out two things: 1) Bumgarner is the real deal, and 2) baseball on the west coast is totally different than baseball on the east coast. Someone needs to tell the Phillies that. Better yet, don't! [U]Totals:[/U] AL: now that I have written the above, I would love to say OVER but these type MUST WIN games tend to be tight -pass NL: Line moved down to 7.5 and rightfully so. Might have leaned at UNDER 8 but I lose my edge at UNDER 7.5 - pass GL, RUDY[/B]

Thanks for the great analysis. GL today.

enjoyable read. Very good stuff.