ALCS Game 3: Bos @ Det

ALCS Game 3: Bos @ Det Series tied 1-1 - Game 3: BOS Lackey @ DET Verlander -152 / 7 OV -120 Game 2 in Boston saw the Tigers bullpen crumble and blow a 5-1 lead left to them by Max Scherzer, who allowed just two hits in his 7 innings of work. In Game 1, Sanchez allowed no runs/no hits in 6 innings but his pitch count was 116 so Leyland went to the pen. The Tiger starters held the Red Sox hitless through 5 2/3 innings in Game 2 and held them hitless for 8 1/3 in Game 1. Detroit, with Verlander pitching also held the A's hitless for 6 2/3 in Game 5 of the previous series. That is some pretty impressive 5 inning results if you were betting the 1H line. 1-0, 0-0 and 2-0 have been the 5 inning scores those three games with ZERO hits allowed by Tigers starters. Verlander has allowed no runs in his two post-season starts. In 15 innings his stats are 6 hits allowed, 2 BBs and 21Ks. He is back in Cy Young form and pitching at home in a day game where his career stats say he is in his best subset. His overall ERA last three years is 2.81. At home it is 2.57 and during day games it is 2.13. I don't put a whole lot of weight on day/night splits but will concede that there may be something to it for some pitchers. It makes sense to assume that Leyland, with his best pitcher on the mound and pitching the best he has all year long, to be reluctant to go to the pen until he maxes out his pitch count. At the pace he has been K'ing batters and also the rate at which Sox batters have been K'ing (32 Ks in two games vs Tiger pitching!), anything less then 8 Ks as a strikeout line for Verlander is an automatic OVER bet. Even better, Verlander -1 or fewer K's vs Lackey. I think Justin goes 7 innings minimum and very good chance at 8. Verlander only averaged 6.38 Ks per start in the regular season. If you include playoffs, he averaged 6.61. If they hang 7 though, I hammer it. At 7.5 it's just a normal bet. At 8 will look for other options like the matchup vs Lackey. The obvious wager of Tigers in 5 innings is currently Det -150 in LV and higher offshore, which suggests you are on the right track on that bet. Pinnacle and 5Dimes are at -160. The total is UN 3.5 EV.