Baseball Dog plays for Thursday

Baseball Dog plays for Thursday I have bet Minnesota +1.5-112 and I'm strongly thinking about betting Tampa Bay +1.5-130. In both games these picks go probably against the 2 best pitchers in the AL in Verlander and Sabathia. I think CC is going for 8 straight wins and Verlander has been exceptional since May. Believe me it is not like I want to bet against these guys but the odds are always a little strong in their favour and each of them is going against teams that are not that far away from them in the standings and Pavano and Shields---particularly Shields---are throwing the ball well. Detroit has owned the Twins recently but that is the just the way it is . That type of trend helps for value. Most importantly, I believe the Minnesota runline is short and I'll base just one the probability shown of Detroit winning and the total on the game. For games where the home dog is +150 a fair runline should be around +1.5-120 for games with a total around 7.5---this one is even slightly bid under that. At only reduced juice top books can you get better than this number and I took them up on it but did not bet it at Pinnacle. I think Pinnacle should eventually be +1.5-125 on this game and that is even at the current moneyline. I wouldn't be surprised to see a little betting on Minnesota. We saw Fezzik do it yesterday. Sharp bettors have always liked this team. Obviously they've done well for bettors recently. The TB/NYY game is similar. I like to look at rickj's picks and I see he likes TB today. He liked KC yesterday and it was another play that I made at a reduced juice book that I felt was a little low even without handicapping their runline wasn't in line with the moneyline of the game. Today I would say TB is about +130 and with a total under 7 even though they're at home a fair run line might be to me around +1.5-135 at least perhaps not +1.5-140 but a little higher than the current offshore number. I'm actually trying to bet this better than +1.5-130 but I'll probably be on the play.

I have bet Tampa Bay on the ML as I do believe that getting Shields at home as a dog is a play that makes sense. CC has been incredible lately but I am going to bet that TB finds a way to get this one to at least salvage a split in this important series. TB leaves for a long 10 game road trip after today where they will play 3 sub par teams. I think this team understands the importance of this game to try and salvage hopes of contending with Boston and NY. If they can win today and probably go 7-3 on a trip where they play the Royals, A's, and Mariners. I do think the +1.5 at -130 is a good play and always look for spots to bet against NY especially as a low favorite with CC. Having said that I do not agree with the Minnesota pick. I know that this team has been a good "bet on" team after their horrific start but this is a game that I think Detroit wins. With Verlander coming off a loss in a game where he did not pitch that bad I like him to bounce back and give a strong performance. Also I think I heard that Verlander is 9-2 with Detroit coming off a loss. Detroit lost yesterday in a game where the bullpen failed them and Verlander will look to get them back on track. I like the spark that Carlos Guillen could give the Detroit lineup. I also base this pick more on betting against Pavano than on Verlander. Pavano has had an ok year but he is typically a guy that does not finish the year strong and he has been left in many games this year to eat up innings due to the Minnesota bullpen being so bad. Pavano does tend to give up HRs and I like Detroit to improve their offensive numbers in the second half. I think Pavano could give up some early runs today and allow Verlander to settle in against a lineup that allows him to pitch confidently without the fear of giving up a big hit. Minnesota being near the bottom in many offensive categories although I know that have been better as of late. Also I am pretty sure that Detroit has won every game with Minnesota so far this year. Just wanted to chime in. I always appreciate your posts Skeeter.

NOTES: - no Granderson in starting NYY lineup - Tigers have beaten Twins 9 in a row - Rays are a bad team but Yankees are now short two regulars - Yankees are 16-5 in CC starts; Rays are 11-9 in Shieds' games btw - IMO one should never handicap a [U]baseball[U][/U][/U] game by looking at large odds first and then look for reasons to justify the play. Playing the +RL is justifiable, perhaps, but as far as I am concerned both these sides (ML) are unplayable. I have a lean to UNDER in the NYY-TB game. GL tonight, Rudy

Thanks for the input. I did have to settle for TB +1.5-130. No handicapping on my Minnesota play. I have bet on Minnesota but I haven't handicapped them. Of course, many bets I'll make are handicapped plays or plays from this board but more significantly I'm looking for off numbers and situations where I just think the line is an advantage for me to bet. And I'll end up betting many things on sides that really have nothing to do with my opinion on a game. And the play on Minnesota has nothing to do with the plus odds on them or their degree of being an underdog. It is strictly a play based on they're moneyline vs. their runline implied that either Detroit should be favoured more on the moneyline or Minnesota isn't a bad runline bet. You really need to beat +1.5-120 and that is still the case later in the day. I probably have a bet on 75% or more of baseball games during a season in some form or another. And for the Minnesota game, I figured I'd end up with a bet somewhere on them just by the nature of my style of betting of which I practice the Fezzik style "run n gun" or "ram n jam" approach that isn't discussed as much on this board. JIMO I wanted to jump the gun because I really thought that the line on Minnesota would go lower on the monyline and higher on the runline and I felt it was justified so I wanted the early price and I thought I'd throw it to the board to see if anyone else agreed and so far they've agreed to the tune of 4 cents which is better than nothing. FWIW I really don't think the Twins are a bad bet here at these prices. Verlander is outstanding. I actually saw a game in Detroit in June against Seattle (Verlander vs. Fister) and he was lights out but it was Seattle. But he did it to Toronto with a no hitter and that isn't so easy. I think Thome and Mauer hit Verlander not bad I thought. Now neither of those guys are as good as they have been but and Thome's case won't be at all but they got a few guys back and they're only 5 games out, they're a scrappy group, I'd go with the dog as a handicap. (Stick a side bet on a Verlander no -hitter though.) Good luck tonight and I'll keep my eye on the under.

[QUOTE=RudyNYCSports;44739]NOTES: - no Granderson in starting NYY lineup - Tigers have beaten Twins 9 in a row - Rays are a bad team but Yankees are now short two regulars - Yankees are 16-5 in CC starts; Rays are 11-9 in Shieds' games btw - IMO one should never handicap a [U]baseball[U][/U][/U] game by looking at large odds first and then look for reasons to justify the play. Playing the +RL is justifiable, perhaps, but as far as I am concerned both these sides (ML) are unplayable. I have a lean to UNDER in the NYY-TB game. GL tonight, Rudy[/QUOTE] Rudy, Thanks for the input but I just am wondering why you considered both ML unplayable. Maybe I do not understand. Were you talking about the Rays and Tigers ML or the Rays and Twins? I agree that one should not look at the large odds and try and justify it, but I think it is different when you are looking at a team like the Yankees, Redsox, or Phillies as these teams will usually be overpriced. I also wonder why you consider the +RL justifiable in these cases and not the ML. I must admit that I have little success betting on the RL and have no real strategy for it and judging by most posts on this board it is not a long term winning strategy. Also I would disagree with your statement that the Rays (51-45) are a bad team. They are not a playoff team but I have had them ranked fairly consistently lately in my top ten. They finish with a favorable schedule and will probably be looked at as the best team to not be in the playoffs. BTW I have enjoyed your plays this year. Keep up the good work.

[QUOTE=bluehorseshoe;44743]Rudy, Thanks for the input but I just am wondering why you considered both ML unplayable. Maybe I do not understand. Were you talking about the Rays and Tigers ML or the Rays and Twins? I agree that one should not look at the large odds and try and justify it, but I think it is different when you are looking at a team like the Yankees, Redsox, or Phillies as these teams will usually be overpriced. I also wonder why you consider the +RL justifiable in these cases and not the ML. I must admit that I have little success betting on the RL and have no real strategy for it and judging by most posts on this board it is not a long term winning strategy. Also I would disagree with your statement that the Rays (51-45) are a bad team. They are not a playoff team but I have had them ranked fairly consistently lately in my top ten. They finish with a favorable schedule and will probably be looked at as the best team to not be in the playoffs. BTW I have enjoyed your plays this year. Keep up the good work.[/QUOTE] Firstly, congrats on your ML play on the Rays...looks like all three of us cashed - ML, +RL and UNDER, although I did have a ML play earlier in the day on the Yanks. I knew it was trouble when Granderson did not start but evened out that play with the UNDER. As for the notes I spewed out, the Yanks/Rays comments supported a contradictory position supporting my comment that the ML was unplayable from my view. As for the Tigers/Twins, yes, I was commenting on both ML sides there as well. The Twins have become a sexy team to back but I will not support Pavano over Verlander in any situation and believed the ML odds were inflated on Verlander, so no ML play there either. I trust that makes a little more sense. As for the Rays, let's just say I am not impressed with the Rays. btw - I meant to say they are a "bad hitting team", not a "bad team". I ragged on them early in the season when, burdened with key offensive injuries, they were horrendous. Then as players came back they started winning including a very hot streak and many runs scored in late June. But now they are back to earth and I believe they are nowhere close to the class that a healthy or even unhealthy Boston or Yankee team are. I am not impressed with their offense (.243 Team BA) at all and believe their young staff is a bit overrated (although Shields seems untouchable right now). PREDICTION: watch the Red Sox pull away in the AL East regardless of any moves the Yanks make before the trade deadline. Finally, as for RL plays, I'm much like Skeeter as I will play a lot of games and take many chances. One of my favorite personal strategies, which I seldom share on forums or elsewhere, is a RL (minus the runs) action reverse (please, no comments from the "sharps" on that). I love the payout if both teams win and should I split, the risk is often minimized by the larger return on the one winner. Baseball does afford one many more alternatives than hoops or foots. I hope I clarified my prior comments and did not confuse you any further. "Baseball Fever - Catch It" BOL, Rudy

Thanks Rudy. I just want to clarify your statement on your RL strategy to make sure I understand. Are you saying that you take a RL -1.5 for the favorite and then place a bet on the ML for that team as well? I am obviously not a sharp and just wanted to make sure I understood. Thanks.

No, I will take two teams minus 1.5 runs and play them in a reverse. Let's say both are -1.5 runs +150. A $1000 reverse would pay $6000 if both win. If I split, I drop $500. I lose on both, I drop $2000, the same I would have lost had I played them straight. Also, I am a proponent of spliting straight plays between ML and RL in certain situations. Rudy