[QUOTE=sportsmemo;19817]Lee has had this issue twice in his career. The previous two occurred in 2007 and 2003. He began both those seasons on the DL. In 2007 he made his first start on May 3rd. In 2003 he started the season in the minors, but did not make his first start until mid-May. It is being reported that the Mariners are rumored to be working on re-signing Jarrod Washburn to a one year deal. So my gut feel is that a month is about right.
I liked the Mariners over as well at first glance because I really respect the direction and emphasis of building a roster geared toward the ballpark by the general manager, but I do have a couple of concerns.
1. In the Bill James Baseball Abstract he wrote an article in the 1998 edition about some of the most important things he's learned through sabermetric study. One of the concepts is that "When a team improves sharply one season they will almost always decline in the next." Going from 61-to-85 wins in 2008-to-2009 has me concerned.
2. Last year a lot of things went right. They scored just 640 runs while allowing 692 runs. That translates to a Pythagorean record of 75-87, yet they finished the season 85-77.
3. The market is now seemingly too in tune with sabermetrics such as OPS and defensive metrics. While the ill informed old school local announcers and color men still like to denigrate this research and label the researchers as stat geeks, the fact is that MLB features more info from baseball prospectus than just about any other source. I think Seattle is a type of team that gets market respect greater than just a few years ago. To me this is reflected in the O/U number of 83.5 or 84.
Now, while I am a little skeptical on the season over/under win bet, I do think this team will be good. They won't be flashy on offense but as they built perfectly for this park with a fantastic defense, I think they will often make on my card in the "under the total" column.[/QUOTE]
I definitely agree with the part about the market being in tune to the sabermetric and baseball prospectus stuff. It's very similar to Phil Steele's preview in college football. You end up getting a discount on teams like the Angels, who Pecota usually underrates. But you also have to pay a higher price on teams like Washington who would have been lined a lot closer to their past season's record, rather than a big adjustment to the stat guy's expectation.
I was actually expecting Seattle's number to open higher b/c of the offseason pub. If anything, I think the saber guys are keeping this number down a bit. The Lee injury makes it a no play for me.
