Baseball Streaks

Baseball Streaks Gentlemen, I apologize for the lack of a timely response. I've been under the weather -- even canceled my classes. To get a complete listing for the win-loss records of the league on every possible streak, the SDQL text is simply: [B]streak[/B] That's all you need. Those six letters. No computer training is necessary. Go to the MLB query page at lvasports.com and type in only the six letters in streak and then click on the query button. When the streak is positive, it is a winning streak, when the streak is negative it is a losing streak. So, teams on three game winning streaks are: 1096-1058 (0.06, 50.9%) -7735 -3055 That's -77.35 units when playing ON these teams and -30.55 when playing against since 2004. So, you lose less money when playing against these teams. Teams on three game losing streaks are a combined: 986-1077 (-0.13, 47.8%) -8345 -2510 Which is -83.45 units playing on and -25.10 playing against. One of simplest trends we have in the archive involves a team on a six-game winning streak. We've been following this "system" for one and a half seasons now. The public somehow thinks six wins it too much and does not give the streaking team enough respect. Teams in this spot are: 126-69 (1.20, 64.6%) 5623 -6551 That's 56.23 units playing ON and -65.51 units playing against. These teams have been only a 123 favorite on the average. The SDQL text is simply: [B]streak=6 and season>=2006[/B] This season, teams on six-game winning streaks are 22-13. Last season, they were 32-12 and in 2008 they were 28-14. Perhaps the betting public is getting over-cautious of streaks, thinking that it is a sucker bet to play on a team that is on a winning streak. I'm open to other theories. Perhaps it's just random noise? Prof Meyer

What percentage of those six-game winning streaks are the result of two three-game sweeps, and does the data do anything when split off?

6-game streak breakdown Good Suggestion. To breakdown the W-L record of teams on six-game streaks by series game, use: [B]season>=2006 and streak=6 and SG[/B] SG stands for series game. The results are: 1st game: 40-24 (0.98, 62.5%) +1605 -1920 2nd game: 43-23 (1.86, 65.2%) +2128 -2496 3rd game: 30-20 (0.08, 60.0%) +760 -960 4th game: 13-2 (2.93, 86.7%) +1130 -1175 To answer your specific question, I think the SDQL text is: [B] season>=2006 and streak=6 and SG=1 and p:SGS=3 and pppp:SGS=3[/B] SGS stands for series games and it represents the total number of games in the series. The result is: 24-12 (1.08, 66.7%) +1350 -1575 A breakdown by site reveals that teams making a home - away transition are 5-10. That is. teams that are on the road off two straight three-game sweeps with the last series at home are 5-10. This leaves a very nice 19-2 record for any team on a six-game winning streak in a series opener as long as they are not making a home-away transition. We didn't even consider favorite/dog breakdown. Prof Meyer

The key query HOw do 5,6,7,8,9 streakers do? There is no 'magic' to 6 being the number that should win. If streakers are undervalued all numbers close to 6 should win also. If not, it is just random noise.

Here are the results. MLB - Winning Streaks from 2005-2010 5 games 294-277 -43.55 net units [B]6 games 178-115 +46.53 net units[/B] 7 games 101-75 +9.35 net units 8 games 45-54 -26.20 net units 9 games 25-20 +1.75 net units At the beginning of the season, I was very confident that the 6-game win streak result was noise. What assignable cause could there be?? However, it went 23-13 in 2010 making 8.18 net units. Based on the 2010 results, I'm not as confident. When handicapping baseball in 2010, I tried to avoid playing on teams that were on six-game winning streaks. Of course, it still could be noise, but I'm keeping an open mind. In 2011 I will want to know if a team is on a six-game winning streak -- not because they will be an automatic play if they are, but because it's information that I want include as part of my decision making process. If anyone has a theory why teams on six-game winning streaks have been so profitable for the last six seasons, I would be interested to hear (read) it. Ed

Can't possibly think of a reason for 6 games being special. Can we do only the streaks in the second half of the season? I think the reasoning goes teams are more likely to throw in the towel later in the year, leading to more streaks.

[QUOTE=Prof Meyer;29241]Here are the results. MLB - Winning Streaks from 2005-2010 5 games 294-277 [B]-43.55 net units[/B] 6 games 178-115 +46.53 net units 7 games 101-75 +9.35 net units 8 games 45-54 [B]-26.20 net units[/B] 9 games 25-20 +1.75 net units [/QUOTE] Random Noise.

I would say noise, since the 5 game streak lost almost as many units as the 6 game streak won.

Streakers in the Second Half Here are the streak numbers since 2005 for the second "half" of the season (after June): streaks and month>6 4 wins 263-255 -32.45 net units 5 wins 126-136 -37.75 net units 6 wins 78-49 +25.35 net units 7 wins 38-42 -16.00 net units 8 wins 14-24 -19.60 net units 9 wins 10-4 +6.55 net units Teams on six-game winning streaks finished the 2010 regular season on an 11-3 run. I was poking around a little bit more with the six-game winning streak and found that a day off seems to kill the streak. Since 2005, MLB teams are 78-49 when on a six-game winning streak. This can be seen in the table above. However, when a team on a six-game winning streak has rest, they are 6-12. So, we find that a team on a six game winning streak with exactly one days rest after June is 72-36 since 2005, making 34.4 net games. The SDQL is: [B]streak=6 and month>6 and season>=2005 and rest=0 [/B] Over the past three seasons, the results have been nothing short of spectacular in this spot. Specifically, MLB teams on six-game winning streaks after June that played their last game yesterday were 17-2 in 2008, 16-3 in 2009 and 13-4 this season. That's 46-9 since 2008. The SDQL text is: [B]streak=6 and month>6 and rest=0 and season>=2008[/B] After August, these teams are 23-3 combined. The SDQL here is: [B]streak=6 and month>8 and rest=0 and season>=2008[/B] But, it's probably noise... Prof Meyer

Thanks. Fading the 3 game or more losing streaks in 2nd half is not as bad, but it doesn't look profitable either.