Couple of Plays for 8/19 Cleveland +100 over KANSAS CITY – Trivia question – Which team has the best record in the league when facing a pitcher that is seeking same-season revenge for a team loss? It is the Indians. Cleveland is 9-2 when facing a starter they beat the last time they faced him in 2010. They were the dog in ten of the eleven. Wow. Not only does the Tribe have the best winning percentage in the league in this spot, they are the most profitable as well. In Davies’ last start vs Cleveland, the Indians won 4-0 as a slight home favorite. Not allowing revenge vs a starting pitcher they beat is a characteristic of poor teams. They remember which starters they can beat and then focus their best effort in that game. In fact, it would be surprising to many that the top two teams in the league since late 2006 as a ROAD DOG when facing a starter than is seeking same-season revenge are the Royals and the Indians. The Royals are 21-20 getting 164 on the average and the Indians are 22-19 getting 143 on the average. It’s actually quite remarkable that these two are over 500 in this spot.
In addition, Cleveland is 9-5 recently as a dog vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings and a very determined 5-1 as a dog and it is the last game of a three-game series when they lost the first two, with their only loss in Philadelphia during interleague play.
The Royals scored early and often yesterday, building a 9-4 lead before the Indians made it close with a three-spot in the top of the eighth. One symptom of poor teams is that they tend to give these wins right back. The Royals are no different. Kansas City is 0-13 since late April when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series.
Cleveland may not be a good team, but they’ll have plenty of grit and fight in them tonight. Talbot, especially, will rise to the challenge. Cleveland is a perfect 4-0 as a road dog with Talbot when facing a team that has won at least two straight. He has had a quality start every time and the Tribe won 8-1, 9-2, 8-2 and 5-3. The opposing starters were: Scott Baker, Joe Saunders, Brian Matusz and Bronson Arroyo respectively. The Tribe has all the line value here.
MTi’s FORECAST: Cleveland 7 KANSAS CITY 3
HOUSTON -110 over NY Mets -- The Houston Astros got off to a bad start this season and they lost key veteran players to contenders. Nonetheless, they are a solid 36-34 their last 70 games this season. Over these 70 games, they have been a 130 dog on the average. The linesmakers still have not caught up.
Yesterday, Houston lost game three of this four-game set 3-2 in 14 innings, after the Mets took a 2-0 lead in the seventh. This is an unbelievably bad spot for the Mets. New York is 0-8 on the road when they are off a win in which they never trailed, 0-8 on the road after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and 0-8 on the road when they are off a game that was tied at the end of at least six separate innings. That’s not all...
In addition, the Mets are 0-14 since June of last season on the road off a win in which they used at least five pitchers and 0-13 as a dog after a one-run win and it is not the first game of a series.
Houston, on the other hand, is a perfect 7-0 their last seven at home vs a NL opponent when they are off a loss in which they never led.
In Bud Norris’ last start, he struck out 14, walked one and allowed five hits in seven innings. The Astros beat the Pirates 3-2 as a 140 home favorite. This is relevant because Houston is 4-0 with Norris when he is off a home start in which he had more strikeouts than hits allowed. These wins include a 4-1 victory in St Louis as a 260 dog vs Carpenter, a 9-5 win in Milwaukee vs Manny Parra as a 170 dog. An 8-1 home win over the Cubs with Wells as a 130 dog and a 18-4 win over the Cardinals with Garcia as a 190 dog. That’s an average margin of victory of 7.0 runs as an average of a 170 dog.
The Mets have won two straight games ONCE in their last FIFTY games. We’ll lay 110 that they won’t do it again here.
MTi’s FORECAST: HOUSTON 7 NY Mets 3
