Cubs/White Sox Wednesday There are a few bets I like today in this game.
(1) I like the Cubs and I bet them runline +1.5-120 but that is from price shopping. I'd think this bet was good to +1.5-130 and still be good.
(2) I like the Cubs team total over 3.5. I bet it over 3.5-105 but it just seems to me it is a team total I would like over -120 Greek had that team total over 3.5-120. Legendz was over 3.5-115. 5 Dimes and Pinnacle have the best odds around over 3.5-105.
The pitching matchup is Peavy and Davis. Davis pitched well vs. the Yankees last week and the Yankees are one of the hottest offences around. He isn't a top pitcher at all but being left handed he helps neutralize Adam Dunn who I think has one hit all year vs. lefties? Or maybe it is just 1 out of his last 40+ vs them.
Peavy is off the DL again. I tend to be wary of pitchers in their first start off the DL. We know they're more likely to be monitored for pitches in general and may be pulled earlier even if they are doing well. They often struggle in the 1st inning on their comebacks so it is sometimes an area I'll look at the 1st inning prop that the Cubs will score.
I also think with Peavy and the team total there is a bit of a public perception that gets into these lines that he's a top pitcher. And over his 25 starts in Chicago he has a good record but his ERA is over 4. Its over 4 this year. I think he's proven he can still pitch very well but it is hard to say at this point he's a top pitcher. He'd have to earn that again and the lines IMO are still set as if he's a top pitcher.
US Cellular field is a hitter's park. The White Sox have some hitters which influences that but I consider it a hitter's park. The Cubs can hit. Barney and Byrd are out but their lineup is pretty strong offensively. They have some hitters around .300 or more and Soriano and Pena have been hitting the ball pretty well. Pena in particular recently at least for power.
My fear in this game a bit is that Peavy has a tremendous interleague record and in particular he's pitched very well vs. the Cubs in his recent starts. Not what I want to read going over or making a play on the Cubs but there are no perfect bets I guess. Cuzzi is the HP umpire. He's umpired more unders than overs this year but no time to do further research and I'll just call that perhaps this particular data just worked out that way and that Peavy doesn't have anything over the Cubs hitters per se other than when he pitches well himself.
