Great 3-game series bet

Great 3-game series bet Mariners (+100) over Phillies Michael Pineda and Felix Hernandez both pitching in this series (at home), while the Mariners are fortunate enough to miss both Halladay and Lee. Seattle is a dog here? Really??? This line is based way more on reputation than reality... Incidentally, the M's just called up their prized minor-league prospect Dustin Ackley, who will making his making his major league debut tonight (batting 7th). This kid has shown a great batting eye in the minors thus far, walking more times than he strikes out. That's a great stat for any hitter, but is especially encouraging with a young prospect like Ackley. Looking forward to seeing him play tonight.

I really like this idea so I spent a few minutes on it. I read that about Ackley. If I assume Seattle wins tonight with probability 0.52 and I see their odds for tomorrow are already about 0.59 I need the 3rd game of course. That game is Hamels against Vargas. Hamels has been pretty exceptional so far but Vargas has his moments but I think the Phillies will be favoured -120 at least in this game? What do you think? If they are favoured as high as -150 even getting +100 for the series doesn't offer much value. If one thinks Hamels will be about -120 for this last game a series bet needs to be made around -110 to have even a small edge. I think -105 is some value if the odds are -120 on Hamels. +100 is a solid bet the closer the odds are to -120 on Hamels for that last game. I'm just trying to figure out whether there is any value in the series as compared to just betting Seattle in any particular game.

Just my opinion, but i think the M's have better than a .52 chance tonight with Pineda at home vs. Oswalt (i bet tonight's game as well).

Seattle takes the first game 4-2, behind yet another strong game from Pineda.

Nice call Cat. Thanks!

Congratulations! I filed this in my memory. This last game was at the high end of the range I thought it might be on the Phillies at -150 and they moved it to -160. RickJ was on Seattle as well! I didn't find a great number but I beat Pinnacle and it was a very good handicap. Sharp bettors actually won with Philadelphia yesterday vs. Hernandez but you nailed the game on Friday and you got the game with the dog. Vargas retired 16 out of 17 batters at the end and threw his 2nd shutout of June. After the game I listented to the interviews with Ackley and Vargas. Ackley scored the insurance run after a triple and you could tell both players were primed with Philadelphia visiting to play well this weekend. It was a well played series by them. You had the emotional advantage with Seattle I believe all weekend. Thanks for the idea and although I didn't get on the series bet or bet the game on Friday, I made absolute sure I got down on Seattle today.