MLB 2011 Wins Totals

MLB 2011 Wins Totals [B]Phillies under 97.5 Angels under 83.5 [/B] I'll add writeups as time permits. Probably will add more.

Adding one [B]Arizona over 72.5[/B]

Adding another [B]Giants over 87.5 wins.[/B] I hate going against Eric Strasser, who is one great baseball handicapper, but I think he missed this one(he bet under 88.5). Write-ups if possible this week. It is almost impossbile to wager on baskets full time, research bases and spend a bunch of time putting thoughts into the written word.

I'll be very interested if you get a chance to write up some of your plays. I'm curious on the Angels under 83.5. The Angels won 80 games last year and really nosedived and obviously had the big injury to Morales. If Kazmir is any better this year their starting pitching is pretty deep. That is going to keep them in alot of games if those guys can pitch the way they have in the past. Haren and Kazmir are big question marks but both have been top tier pitchers. Kazmir is a 5th starter liability of course based on LY but not sure he will be this year. Santana and Weaver are close to being elite pitchers. Probably Weaver is. Pineiro looked good. This rotation is probably above average and has the potential to be well above average. Their bullpen was hideous last year but the history of the last 10 years of the Angels has usually been a pretty good bullpen. Downs was very good for the Blue Jays and I think he has to help. Rodney is not a top closer but we'll see he looks like he can do the job. The offence always seems to be a problem with them probably will be this year..again. Morales still questionable for opening day and without a proper spring that would hurt them. I really do think Scioscia is the best manager in baseball or right at the top. This counts for something. He's earned that. I see Oakland actually is projected to be better than the Angels. I guess my initial thoughts are they won't be. I think the A's are more offensively challenged than the Angels. Their young pitchers I think are good but not sure they'll all match what they did last year. I'm not really sure Cahill, Gonzalez or Braden are as good as they were last year so I don't see them any better than the Angels in this area either. Asking Oakland to win 84 games to get an over bet in is quite a bit. If they don't get a great start, this team is automatically sellers at the trade deadline. The Angels are just the opposite I think in that they just won't go down as easily. They will acquire at the deadline if even a shot at a wild card is my guess. Not sure I like Angels over but not sure I really like under either. I guess out of this I like A's under. Just some thoughts.

currently out of town But, back soon and hope to spend time participating more on the forums.

Phillies Under I think the Phillies are going to win a lot of games in 2011. But, I think the right number should have been around 95.5. I fully expect them to get to 90, just not to 98. I put this out prior to their onslaught of injuries so that development has only helped. [B]Dominic Brown's [/B]hand and [B]Chase Utley's [/B]knee are serious. [B]Brad Lidge's [/B]bicep and [B]Placido Polanco's[/B] elbow appear minor but can only underscore what is commonly known: [B]You gotta stay healthy if you want to contend[/B]". As long as that rotation stays healthy this team will win a lot of games. Halladay, Lee, Oswalt and Hamels will be fun to watch. But, don't be surprised to see some games get away late. I'm not totally sold on the bullpen. This team is going to need Howard to step up and perform. There are going to be a lot of low scoring games, especially on the road. I just don't see a lot of runs scored, especially with the current injuries. Losing Utley is big. Real big. The Philles will win a lot of games. But, I don't see 98 or above. [B]Interleague[/B]: Oakland, Boston, Toronto, Texas, Seattle. Fairly strong, Id say.

Giants over The World Series champs are better now than they were at the start of last season. The team broke camp last year leading all of baseball with a spring training record of 23-12. Insiders knew if this team could just score some runs it could be a special year. [B]Hitting[/B]: The 2011 team is the same one that ended 2010. The starting lineup of [B]Cody Ross[/B], [B]Andres Torres[/B], [B]Pat Burrell [/B](probably), [B]Buster Posey[/B], [B]Freddy Sanchez [/B](he was on the DL with a bad shoulder at the beginning of last year and didn't get in the groove all the way until August)were all absent for much of 2010. This team is going to "[B]gap to gap[/B]" you this year. [B]Pablo Sandoval [/B]is a new man after dropping 38 pounds with his body fat shrinking from 30% to 19% and [B]Mark Derosa [/B]is healthy providing strong competition for a starting job. The team depth is as good as it has been in years. [B]Pitching[/B]: It almost doesn't get any better that this. [B]Lincecum[/B], [B]Cain[/B], [B]Sanchez[/B] and [B]Bumgarner[/B] with [B]Zito[/B] as the 5th starter. Wilson is the closer (Fear the Beard)and there is plenty of strength and depth in the bullpen. It needs to be discussed about the widely held belief that the Giants pitchers maxed out last year. All of the first 4 starters pitched career innings. I know management was well aware of this and there is always the concern of an "August breakdown". I can only add that the team was ultra conservative this winter and worked on conditioning throughout the offseason. Matt Cain had elbow stiffness and sat out for 10 days this spring. So, with this glowing report why don't they win 115 games? Hey, we just want them to get to 88. There is no 40 home run threat, just a ton of gap to gappers. But, there should be plenty of 20 homer guys in there. [B] Interleague[/B]: A's (6 games), Minnesota, Cleveland and Detroit. Competitive but not show stoppers. The division is competitive. The Padres are weaker but you'll see Arizona step up to win more games. Look for Colorado to win 85ish games and the Dodgers to be around .500. They will need a rash of inuries to critical components to miss this number. If you bet this under you are throwing the dice that injuries will drop them down. Fielding negative: I may as well add that the left side of the infield is slow. There should be some "seeing eye dogs" get through that side with Sandoval and an older Tejada roaming over there. As of now, the Giants are tearing up the Cactus league at 16-5, almost an unheard of win rate in spring training. The chemistry is just as strong as last season, everyone came into camp in shape and ready to play. I look for 90-93 wins. It's enough for me to hammer the number.

Zito may get designated for assignment, based on reports I have read locally. That can only help.

Rumors Joel, from everything I read, watched and listened to that rumor was just that: A rumor.

Tim, I just returned from my annual Florida excursion where I took in ten games in eight different camps. Furthermore, my ex-partner, as usual as he lives in Arizona, has been to a half dozen Cactus games. We have a pretty good feel for which teams are for real and which have/will have problems. Where as you tear apart each team's schedule, I tend to look at each team's division strength plus factor in each team's feel at the spring camps. I must admit I love your analysis of both the Giants and the Phils and agree with your final assessment but got there differently. My comments on your team wins (btw - I never make these plays, not my thing: - Giants Over: 87.5 is ridiculously low, what are "they" thinking? Not only will they surpass that number, they will repeat. As previously stated, they are a year more experienced and so deep that they can and will absorb the impact of any potential injuries. I have to retract a previous statement. This division is not that strong at all. I'm afraid of the Rockies because of their depth and believe the "new look" Padres will give teams fits. As for the D'backs and Dodgers, they are all over the place and trying to find themselves. Donnie Baseball will cost them W's and Zona has yet to impress. Bottom line, Giants will coast in a mediocre division. - Phillies Under: had dinner with a couple of Philadelphia reporters and they tell me Phillie management has concerns. Their lineup has aged and the loss of Jason Werth is a killer. With the exception of Doc, the starters have a history of periods of stays on the DL and/or periods of fades. And, as you mention, there are now serious relief concerns. Finally, the NL East division will be real tough (see notes below). The Phillies will knock on the door but 97.5 wins, c'mon! - Arizona Over: the number is low but not enough there to get me excited. - Angels Under: agree because they are a mess. - Houston Over (as addressed in another thread): despite a messy spring so far, I still think they will get to 73 somehow. Additional notes based on who/what I saw: - Impressed with (Grapefruit only) - Braves, Mets, Tigers, and Wash. Yankees (playing very loose) and Red Sox are showing much early swagger. Stating the obvious, both need to stay healthy. - Not impressed with: Twins, O's, Rays and Marlins - Lastly, Blue Jays might surprise some folks. More on that another time. BASBALL FEVER - CATCH IT! Rudy