Monday Baseball

Monday Baseball Yankees -120 vs 2am Rays (Cobb). 1.5% play. Good Luck

add... Baltm +120 vs 2am Redsox, who are on their way to the airport at 2am to fly to BMore. 1% play. Good Luck

I wish you luck on the plays but I'm inferring the plays are from the fatigue angle. I just theorize that the fatigue angle in baseball can't be as strong as other sports particularly hockey and basketball in unfavourable scheduling situations. Baseball players can definitely be injured doing what they're doing but I don't think they exert a lot of energy although chewing sunflower seeds probably burns more calories than you would think. The big plus though isn't the fatigue it is the bullpen issue and perhaps using several pitchers of varying lengths which effects options for tomorrow. But it is somewhat countered by a starting pitcher who is rested so you don't have any gain from that when betting on a fatigue factor. Honestly don't know but I do remember I thought I've heard a few times that the starter for the next game has often already made the trip to the next city in advance.....perhaps someone could clarify that so they aren't facing the same travel issue as the team even at all. Another negative (or rather a factor against fatigue playing a bigger role in the result of an event) is just the the complete randomness of a result of a baseball game at least IMO. Did he get a 2 out hit with runners on base, etc.? All of the sports obviously have randomness but I do think in a basketball game on a back to back or a 3rd game in 4 nights in hockey the fatigue will be an issue for the team facing that situation and it will effect floor time of players, ice time and probably will be in the lines to some extent but will say it could be underestimated and some sharp plays can get on this angle even after an oddsmaker adjustment and still have an advantage. I think in baseball you have the pitching bullpen angle and the angle regarding the catcher along with whatever the fatigue factor might be worth. Specifically, for these teams I think you even have a few personnel negatives for tomorrow. #1 I think Carl Crawford comes off the DL and is suppose to play tomorrow. I heard Pedroia say in the post game interview he was hoping he would pick them up tomorrow (at least he is admitting he may be fatigued though). Dustin also seemed to convey that Carl was already in Baltimore not in Tampa Bay so he'll face no travel issue or fatigue issue unless he greets them at the airport. #2 Saltamachia didn't play tonight and he is the regular catcher not Varitek. Will assume the travel and boredom fatigue from tonight but didn't play in the game tonight. But Aceves and Albers may not be available but the key guys Bard and Papelbon perhaps fatigued from travel and being up late but I don't think they're restricted physically for tomorrow. I'm not as sure about TB factor. It is less anyway being at home again tomorrow. Only Gomes out of the pen 3 innings might totally not be available and they have 7 guys. Niemann went 8 innings tonight. Even losing Aceves and Albers may force Francona to let Wakefield give up 5 instead of 3 runs and that might be all the room you need to win the bet and all of the advantage you'll need in that game. The fact that TB lost and it is 2 in the morning and by 4 in the morning they can see a headline in the local paper that their season is over might be demoralizing enough to lose again tomorrow.

[QUOTE=Skeeter;44670]The big plus though isn't the fatigue it is the bullpen issue and perhaps using several pitchers of varying lengths which effects options for tomorrow. But it is [B]somewhat[/B] countered by a starting pitcher who is rested so [B]you don't have any gain [/B]from that when betting on a fatigue factor. Specifically, for these teams I think you even have a few personnel negatives for tomorrow. [/QUOTE] Respectfully.....I sort of see the point you are trying to make, but the way you said it makes no sense. You contradict yourself with "somewhat" and "no value (edge)" in the same sentence. The fact is, just because Wakefield did not make the trip to Tampa does not mean his going to be any better than he normally would be. We do know FOR A FACT, that both teams that played until 2am last night emptied out their bullpens. This is called having an edge in sports betting. The lines for these games were put out before the game started (oddsmakers did not know the game would last until 2am), so I grabbed the good numbers and have the edge. Whether I win or not is to be determined. IMO, I will "beat the closer".... LOL (phrase of the century). [B]If [/B]you buy into the theory of beating the closing line is a long term edge, then I have that edge. This beating the closer of course is a whole different discussion. Good Luck. BTW line is Yanks -130 and Baltm +115 currently.

When I got home last night and saw the game was still on, I grabbed the overnights with the full intention of scalping. This is the kind of line movement even I can predict. Skeeter's points would be valid if the lines had already moved/were posted after the game ended. If this hadn't been the first series after the All-Star Break, the effect on TB and Bos would be more pronounced.

I'm not saying you didn't make a bet with an edge and have said that the reason is likely to the bullpen issue less to fatigue. Specifically, the Yankees bet looks really good. Really I was just trying to promote discussion on the topic of the fatigue game and its result angle more than whether you have an edge or not. Your last point is the one I'm probably trying to get at in that will these plays on this angle beat the closing line? So you have the line movement quite correct in the Yankees game and less so in the Boston game as we stand now and will moves based on the fatigue angle stand up until the games start? As a scalper I think you have a nice profit on the Yankees but on the Red Sox I don't think one would have a profit as it stands now. What I probably poorly was trying to say is that in reality I don't think the fatigue factor is a large one and I would really put it as quite small. Regarding the bullpen issue, it is restricted but I feel the key guys for Boston and even Tampa Bay are available. The starters went long distances last night. And Boston even more to their situation will add Crawford and have Salt available to play today. And for Tampa Bay there is no travel it is just a late game and perhaps Gomes is unavailable but I didn't think he was a key guy in their pen and they have 7 guys. The biggest difference of opinion might be the state of the bullpen. To me that is a condition when more than one guy has to go way beyond his usual outing and is more significant when it is a closer or set up guy. I was really thinking for the length of the game last night it wasn't as serious a condition as it might have been if the starters hadn't gone so long to begin with. The key guys were used but in a normal business manner for the teams. I would think Papelbon or Farnsworth are available tonight. I am putting out there that a large move based on the fatigue angles to me would be unwarranted. JIMO of course. Based on what I see now if both these games moved back, it looks like the Yankees would have to be a big move back to take away your advantage but Boston much less so to take your advantage. I can't even be certain that the move on the Yankees is solely due to the fatigue factor. Perhaps it has moved related to another handicapping angle. The games have certainly moved different amounts since your play. The Yankees game took an extra move this morning perhaps related to another angle related to last night's game but certainly well after the knowledge of last night's game should be in the market. If it is understood that Wakefield would be in Baltimore already by all, then it has no effect of course. I certainly didn't mean to say he would be better I was just trying to clarify that the starter for the game wouldn't have the travel issues the rest of the team has.

My two cents: - FWIW, and I have mentioned this before, fatigue tends to be more of a factor on the second day. - The Yankee spike was inevitable because the world once again saw how defunct the Rays offense can be. - As for the Red Sox/O's game, the outcome of the Ortiz/Gregg suspensions might be out this afternoon in which case should Gregg be forced to sit out, the O's pen, which is already spent, will have huge problems. With Bergesen starting, the loss of Gregg will not bode well for the O's and more than compensate for the loss of Big Poppi. Regardless of suspension news, I have to lean towards the Red Sox at the current price. Rudy

Thanks for that information. Here is how I'm playing it and thanks to Dude for sharing the initial idea and Rudy and Joel for chiming in: (1) I have an out that has Baltimore +1.5-135. I'm going to play that. This is just an off number. I think if the game moves back this number will have enough room to still beat closer JIMO. It might not still beat it but my strategy is to be on dogs more than favourites so I'll live with it and hope the headroom is enough. Rudy's comments and my comments in this thread certainly resonate that Boston isn't a bad bet at these prices though. I read about the Gregg/Big Poppi angle as well. And Rudy has made a great point about the O's bullpen being overused itself in the past few weeks and a loss of Gregg who is one of the key guys would be damaging. But I like dogs. (2) I definitely want the Rays in this game vs. the Yankees. I think I would have liked a wager on them at a bargain price even before the move. I feel the move on them is so strong that I am considering just a bet at the low juice offshore number at Pinnacle or 5 Dimes which is +1.5-125 around and take my chances that this will become a good bet later. I'd probably rather have the Dude's -120 in my pocket as a bet but perhaps there is a chance for both of us to obtain good bets in this game.