Monitor betting of LHP for a week

Monitor betting of LHP for a week Lots of games for tomorrow. Hope there isn't that much work to this. If there was any truth to the betting lefties on opener the bettors took a few losses today on the Cubs, Yanks and Orioles they may stop! Well, they may have hit Miley for Arizona. Gio for the Nats opens at -115. BTW don't assume my stats I'm using are for sure correct. I have the Phillies 3-8 vs. LHPand the team OPS is not that much different vs. RHP and LHP but they do hit only .249 vs. LHP vs. .272. If the theory I'm testing from my Reds/Yankees theory were true I'd assume this game would qualify. HYPOTHETICAL bet lay the -115 on Gio and let's see if I can scalp it tomorrow. Pitt and NYM. Bedard and Santana are both LHP so don't think I can cover this. A quick look shows the Pirates don't hit LHP well or RHP well. The Mets I saw the team OPS is similar. No play here. Minor goes for Atlanta against the Reds. Minor I know has had terrible stats. We know the Reds have had action against them against the Yankees when facing a LHP. I don't know if there is a H/A angle either. We'll learn. Have to bet Minor. We get +110 on the opener. Moyer vs. Buehrle is 2 more LHP. I'll leave it. It looks Miami might be poor vs. LHP but I'll exclude this one. Got 3 more games all LHP vs. LHP. The Giants are interesting they have the best record I see 8-4 maybe vs. LHP but their stats hitting are nothing great vs. LHP. In fact the basic BA and OPS are quite worse vs. LHP than RHP for the Gaints. In fact the Brewers hit LHP pretty well relative to RHP. Only 4-6 but the team average and OBP are better vs. LHP. Doubt that is the whole story but no play. SD vs. St.L The Pads are 3-13 vs LHP is the worst I think. St. Louis offense is good either way but still over .800 OPS against LHP. The Pads hitting doesn't seem that much different despite their record. StL already a big favourite all of these basics I leave this one alone. LAD vs. Ar. Capuano vs. Corbin. Just leave it alone. Just one in the AL. Milone vs. the Angels. We bet Oakland with Milone as the LHP. We lay -101 here vs. Williams. (Note is already -106 but we had 2 or 3 hours to do this so and this is just hypothetical). The Angels seem like a good candidate with a losing record vs. LHP and noticeably poorer offensive stats (I'm only looking at .avg and OBP so too broad but all I have time for now).

Couple points of limited relevance: SF was 5-1 vs lefties so therefore 3-3 in last 6 Moyer has a .342 BABIP, which is really high It makes me pass on the Giants game and also puts me on Col over Mia +155 and Under 8.

Thanks. It was no play in this trial but early money is on the Brewers it does seem. Try to note these things for information. I'm not too familiar with the very advanced (if that is what they are) baseball analytics. There are many that I don't know and would be useful. In fact a thread on them with explanations would be good. I believe this one is "batting average on balls in play". You're saying it is high. However, this statistic is something that is believed to be random?? So that if a pitcher is allowing that type of BABIP it is expected that it would decline in the future so that whatever Moyer's stats are it is masking that his pitching has actually been better. As an aside, I see the stat is it FIP that likes to be tossed about ?? I don't know but that is the context that I've read the stat and from your suggested play the Rockies are value as is the under---assuming that this stat is not reflected in the lines. You can start the thread the pitchers with BABIP higher than normal and see if we can scalp their games the next day. LOL>

An average pitcher's BABIP is about .300. Of course some pitchers will have higher or lower BABIPs, just like hitters do. (Ichiro's is .357.) [url]https://scorecenter.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?sort=BIPA&type=sabermetric&order=false[/url] is a good start, although you still have to look and see how far off their lifetime average they are. But Ted Lilly? If it's not factored into the line, he is a good pitcher to fade. Being able to make your own lines really comes in handy when seeing whether certain stats are incorporated already. FIP is fine. It is supposed to be a more accurate stat than ERA, but that is meaningless because ERA doesn't tell you anything. BB/K ratio and WHIP are the two I tend to look at, but WHIP isn't much of a secret anymore. The thing about BABIP is that there's always going to be lucky and unlucky pitchers, and you can determine whether lines aren't reflecting it, or if you can predict line moves based on it even better.

Let's examine the bets overnight: (1) We theoretically bet Gio -115. It's +120 the other side at least. Matchbook is +123 (didn't look up how much let's assume we can scalp 1000). We're done with this game. (2) We had bet Minor +110. Leake is -107 most places but we have to use Matchbook to do this effectively and the line is -103 there. I looked at volume they have plenty at -103 and -104. We're done with this game and this is a scalp. (3) We had Milone -101. This isn't going to be the best price because the line came back but we're going to exit here too. I can lay -104 on Williams so I'm going to take a loss of 5 cents on this scalp. We might have come up with +10 cents in scalps less a little transaction costs which let's assume there are none. Betting on Moyer looks like a scalp so that was the good bet on that one which made sense from what Joel had indicated and Miami's weak LHP hitting. Maybe that is a scalp too. Corbin has been bet huge against the Dodgers. That is a large scalp so I should probably look into why they went on Corbin vs. Capuano. That could be 20 cents. I'll post back for Day 2 when the openers come out. I looked into Arizona/Dodgers and Arizona seems to hold its own vs. LHP statistically with an OPS of .707 and .709 against LHP and RHP. The Dodgers OPS is .724 vs. LHP while they are .761 vs. RHP. They are still 4th highest in that category in the NL against LHP but 2nd vs. RHP so on a relative basis the statement is that AZA is relatively better off and it is not factored into the line. A more important point might be the absence of Matt Kemp. Because without him their offensive stats both ways are way weaker we know that. I looked at Kemp vs. LHP and he is a huge hitter. AZA is missing Young but he's a LH hitter I didn't even look him up.Kemp has 5 HR in 37 AB and an OPS of 1.14 I think I recall. Without his RH power bat the Dodgers are far weaker. I would say that this is something worth looking at as this move is so large that as long as Kemp is out the betting will be against the Dodgers vs. LHP under the assumption the opening line isn't reflecting this impact (and the team's general numbers unless they improve.).

Let's look at tomorrow. There are some LHP vs. LHP matchups Happ vs. Wood. The early money on Happ. Early money on Happ one guess in this LHP vs. LHP matchup is that the Cubs are the weakest hitting team in the NL vs. LHP and a huge discrepancy between their stats against RHP. The team OPS not even .600 from the left side and over .700 vs. RHP. The Astros are about the same OPS but do hit lower. It is advantage Astros if the assumption is this fact isn't in the original line. The second one which I see no change at Pinnacle is Doubront and Matusz. CJ Wilson goes for the Angels vs. Godfrey. Remember this is theoretical We would lay -145 on Wilson. The line is now -156. About 10 minutes to bet that so it could have been done. Harrison goes against Noesi. We would lay -155 at the open but this one was tough. It was bet right away but we'll count it. This one has been as high as -167 already but -162 right now. Forgot one. Matt Moore for TB vs. the Jays. He's a lefty too. He opened at -125 so that is our price but he jumped fast to -132. Only a minute or two before it moved. It is early we've only done a few games. I can't believe this thread makes any difference but we're up to I guess 6 games in a row where the money is at least at first on the LHP.

Reviewing the results from Day 1 if one had just made the bets the Nats won with Gio and Milone won with the A's. Gio was a good bet. Milone was flagged as not a good bet although the first money was on him so depending on how you want to proceed you can either force a scalp out of that only or if one is you get the winner. Minor was a good bet with Atlanta and you lose on him. For the bets for Day 2 CJ Wilson costs some money although you had ample time to get out of the deal but this one has come back quite a bit. Let's say you close this off at +136 so we're beat for 9 cents on that one. An aside I have on this play is that it even sounded strange last night that the play on Milone was rejected because all day the Angels made news with the thumb surgery required for Wells. Not that he's really any good anymore but still another bat out of their lineup. Hunter is also out. Ianetta out I think. Anyway but we can't pick and choose. Harrison that line went up but came back as well. Matchbook is only +145 it may be a moment of temporary illiquidity. There is even +150 around at a few spots and +148 at Neva. Cris is +146. I wouldn't close this bet off right now but to save time let's say we close it at +148 assume that that could get filled or purchased somehow. He costs you 7 cents. Thanks Matt. Could have bailed on him at +162 but can't assume perfect timing. Matt Moore on TB Matchbook is +127 that is a good number might be able to get +130 eventually but we'll have to take +127 for a tiny 2 cent profit on him. We lose 14 cents so our scalping business is now down what 4 cents over the 2 days. The Houston move looks best on the LHP vs. LHP angle with the Cubs being so poor vs. LHP. Might have picked up close to a dime for that one if made. I'll check back when we have openers for Day 3.

All right let's look at Day 3 got quite a few plays tomorrow. We're on auto pilot we're just doing a lab test. Niese up against the Pirates tomorrow he's +104 on the opener so I would bet him. Actually, the Pirates seem to be okay vs. LHP compared to RHP so this may not be a great candidate. I'll just put that comment out now I don't care for now. Let's see what happens. Barry Zito vs. the Brewers at +113. He's already moved to +119 so the betting is against Zito here already but he's the lefty. Milwaukee seems okay vs. LHP. Also note this game as the first game I've seen where the first bet is against the LHP in a matchup with a RHP of the 7 including this one. We will lay -157 on Hamels vs. the Nats. The Nats noticeably worse team BA and OPS vs. LHP so will this be a good one? Wandy Rodriguez for the Astros against the Cubs and we lay -128. From a previous note I know the Cubs are really bad vs. LHP and the betting was on Happ today vs. the Cubs so we'll see if it continues with another LHP. Dodgers/Aza are two lefties but without Kemp I'm thinking the experts want to bet against the Dodgers but they lost yesterday doing it. We'll see if they bet Arizona here with Saunders against LA. In the AL, we have Romero going against the Rays I take +106. Rays actually hit LHP a little better than RHP. I'm surprised a little since Longoria is out I thought he was a RH hitter and they have Pena but I guess they have several SH maybe Joyce and Zobrist bat both maybe. So anyway this one might be no good but for this test we just are hitting LHP no other filter. Pettitte goes tomorrow at -200 against the Royals. The Royals have noticeably worse stats vs. LHP but against the Yankees where I figure already they get any bias in the line it seems like I don't want this bet. But with no real money we get on the Yanks -200. Harder to scalp these too so I will say that this might not be a great candidate for a scalping business just because of the price here. The ChiSox and Twins are two LHP Sale vs. Diamond. Diamond has had a few good starts for Minny since a call up. White Sox really bad vs. LHP. This is intuitive as I think of Dunn and Konerko as their big bats in their lineup. Minny actually pretty good vs. LHP compared to RHP. No bet for me here in this lab but I do say it seems like if we thought these issues weren't in the openers as well they should be I'd be on Minnesota. The opener was +150 and it is now down to +146. Let's see if this plays out for a really big move.

Wrapping up Day 2 it wasn't a good scalping day. I'll summarize the w/l at the end of the week but CJ Wilson was part of a one hitter last night for the Angels going 8 innings so if betting that is a winner. Moore wasn't any good really it seemed but he was given a big lead and the Rays held on so that one was a winner. Harrison had a rough 1st inning but recovered only gave up one run pitching into the 8th as Texas won. So 3 winners there on LHP. The Mets game is underway today we could have bet Pittsburgh -101 so we actually have a positive scalp of 3 cents on the Mets as we had them +104. Now I'm really getting bagged with a huge loss on Zito vs. the Brewers. I only bet +113 and I have to bet -143 to get out of this bet at Matchbook so a huge 30 cent loss here. A really powerful move on Milwaukee with Estrada who I've heard pitches better than his results. I'd indicated Milwaukee was okay vs. LHP. Have to look for ideas here why such a strong move against? I see Buster Posey not starting today probably some move based on that earlier this morning as part of the deal. No doubt someone could bail on this without a 30 cent loss that is probably extreme to take that as a defeat but that is what I got. It still looks like a large loss even before the lineups. I lose 12 more cents on Hamels. No real movement in this game. I get +145 and I had laid -157. I have to also note I would have expected the move on Hamels as the Nats are a poor hitting team vs. LHP so this one seems to lineup as a good play but no dice. And lose another 10 cents on Wandy vs. the Cubs despite Houston winning last night with a LHP and the Cubs poor numbers vs. LHP. But the move is on the Cubs although quite small. I'm being clobbered trying to scalp so playing these on the LHP probably not a free lunch. However, it didn't qualify but I had indicated that a LHP vs. the Dodgers might be a good move based on the play from Monday. Although the Dodgers come with a LHP there is a large move on Arizona with Saunders. In fact that is a 20 cent positive scalp as the Dbacks were +102 at the open and the Dodgers are now +118. If I use my head a little bit I would have gotten a better play. Romero of the Jays also a scalping loser vs. the Rays. I did note this one didn't look like a great qualifer but I have to get out at -115 and I only got +106 so another bath for 9 cents. The Royals changed pitchers so we eliminate the Yankees game now. And in the other LHP vs. LHP matchup not really in the test here but it was noted probably a play on Diamond at +150 was the right play because of the White Sox weak hitting vs. Lefties. I can lay -140 on the Sox at Matchbook so this one is a 10 cent profit. I'll check back with Day 4 later today.

Just a note on the Jays/Rays game. The Rays have 5 LH bats and 2 SH bats in the lineup vs. Romero. Maddon aknowledged by many as the best manager in baseball and the Rays pretty crafty in their defense. We have a case of a LHP getting facing 5 LH bats unusual unless that is all the Rays had. However, get this. I believe one of the SH Johnson maybe batted left vs. Romero. Something to note regarding Romero that the Rays have spotted in that they prefer to bat LH vs. the LH Romero. I'll have to make a note to check into Romero's stats vs. LH hitters but with the Rays you never know if that will tell the whole story. Rays up 4-1 middle of game and Romero somewhat struggling.