Monitor betting of LHP for a week

For Day 4 the bet would be on Stults -121. The Mets don't look to different batting from the left side I don't expect a big move here. Hefner starting for the Mets who I don't know but he pitched well against the Jays on the weekend as an emergency fill in for Batista who had to leave because of injury. And the other play is on Vargas for Seattle at +109. The play seems pretty good as the Angels are notably worse hitting from the left side. But perhaps with Pujols heating up that difference could close. But it looks like a candidate to play. Now let's revisit Ricky Romero. According to the Rays announcers calling their game the switch hitter who hit left against him made his own call to do that. Maddon didn't want him to get messed up. I don't know if all of the at bats taken by SH were from the left. I looked at Ricky's splits and it is pretty fundamental so obviously another layer of digging needs to be done as he is a lefty who allows a 3 year OPS against RH hitters of .655 and vs. LH hitters it is .829. The same pattern is evident except the RH hitters OPS is below .600 for this year. This is an unusual split for a pitcher . The Rays would be a team that wouldn't miss this in their preparation for a game. The move was on the Rays for this game not on the Jays so to some extent it was picked up but actually wonder if it shouldn't have been a bigger move with Shields pitching. But probably the wrong angle to be on Ricky in this game. He wasn't horrible walking 7 and only allowing 2 hits though. We have to look at the opposition who can deal some LH hitters vs. Ricky or we have to assume Ricky is so unique we don't touch the LH hitter factor. But it does seem if you stick RH hitters on him only you might have a problem.

Examining Day 4 first of all Stults was +114 not -121 at the open. That was the other side. And the other side is now -130 so that is 16 cent losing scalp on Stults. One thing I've figured out (and was probably obvious) but not just any LHP is steamed. We're likely not to make betting profits just betting on the LHP at open. Vargas hasn't moved much but it is -116 on the other side so that is a 7 cent loser if one is scalping but no change in the number. Examining results of last night if betting Niese was a winner against the Pirates and the market did like that one even if just a little. Zito was a steam move against right from the open and that was a good call as the Brewers jumped on the Giants early and held on. My initial look indicated the Brewers pretty good against LHP. Posey not in the lineup later. But those factors to me wouldn't have explained that big a move against him so there is probably something else that was the cause of that whether it be just the Brewers due to win at home after losing 2 to the Giants or Zito had some poor numbers against Brewers hitters I don't know. Any ideas? There was no move on Hamels although that one I thought might be good. Perhaps with the Nationals strong record the experts just thought it was too high the price already and felt there was nothing left but Hamels shut them down. He's pitched well almost every start so did the experts miss one here with the Phillies winning? Or do they not mind it was just too big a price? Wandy looked to be a good play against the Cubs. A short favourite at home vs. a team so far weak vs. LH pitching but not until late just before the game was there any move at all on the Astros and it was small. And given it was that late may have been lineup related. But Wandy seemed pretty good and the Astros won that so it is another winner. The 2nd time against the Dodgers vs. LHP was the charm as although the Dodgers had Lilly the Dbacks have been okay against LHP and the Dodgers without Kemp looked like an expert play. The Dbacks won big. Not in the original study but of course I'm beginning to form an opinion that the really good moves in this are against weaker hitting lineups vs. LHP---in relation to how they hit vs. RHP as much as the LHP angle itself. The Jays did lose with Romero. Pretty much spotted right away though that this might not be a good play. The Rays hit LHP pretty well generally and then we find out (not really that much help from expert bettors so I would say they missed this too at least a little bit) that Romero not really that good vs. LH hitters and then the Rays stacking lineup with LH hitters and SH who in one case at least batted left. Just my opinion here but Rays were at home and were pretty small favourites with Shields pitching. The game could have gone either way and went to extra innings. And no doubt in another LHP vs. LHP matchup Diamond looked good on paper and the betting went his way. This one would have been a pretty decent positive scalp but actually if a bettor you do lose on it with the good number. The whole theory here just wrong and Sale I guess shut down the Twins I'll check back with Day 5 candidates later.

Sale was jerked around a bit because the White Sox have closer issues, plus his elbow had him day-to-day twice. The team has since committed to him as a starter.

I'm already going to change things as I'm more interested in trying to figure out the line movement than I am the result---although if we knew the results in advance that would be useful. No more blindly playing any LHP and going to focus on LHP vs. lineups that I deem weak vs. LHP. No upgrades for lineups vs. LHP yet. Maybe incorporate that aspect later. Here are the candidates in all of the major leagues that I've selected to start as teams that I think are relatively worse vs. LHP and I've used OBP as my statistic for all its faults. From the NL, I don't like Colorado, San Francisco, Washington, San Diego and the Cubs. From the AL I don't like Cleveland, Kansas City, Detroit, LA Angels and the White Sox. From the NL slate then for Friday, there are LHP vs. Cincinnati with Friedrich of Colorado so no play. Detwiler vs. Atlanta so no play. Lee against St. Louis so no play. Kershaw against Houston so again no play. In the AL, Chen vs. Baltimore so no play. Lester against Tampa Bay so no play. Holland against Toronto so no play. Smyly vs. Minnesota so no play. And what is interesting is the White Sox against Cleveland have just scratched a LHP Danks but replaced with a minor league call up Quintana who is also a LHP. According to a web site I checked it is not clear why Danks was scratched. I know Sale pitched yesterday and Floyd, Humber and Peavy are RHP. If Danks pitches Saturday and the Sox push back the rotation I will take a guess that the White Sox have noted the Indians weak hitting vs. LHP and have decided to try to work in 2 starts of LHP in this series vs. Cleveland. The Indians team OPS almost 100 pts lower vs. LHP. That is just a total flyer of an opinion. If Danks is out then a total guess whether they still called up the LHP to at least get one start of a LHP vs. the Indians.

Danks has elbow soreness and will return June 4 per the Chicago Tribune Besides the obvious benefit that having this news provides, it brings up an interesting point: How much are these types of stats skewed by injured pitchers not wanting to tell anyone that they are hurt? Using their data just makes it harder to handicap. Do solid handicappers retroactively remove Danks's 2012 numbers from their databases when determining LHP effectiveness?

Thanks. It is a very interesting point and actually I worked with someone a few years ago who developed their own baseball lines and when he didn't get the results he sometimes expected based on the line that he felt showed value he would theorize (maybe too often) that there was a health issue with the pitcher involved. The injury angle is a very important tool I think in handicapping---and one could argue I'm sure where it isn't as obvious even more of an advantage can be gained. Danks hadn't had great stats all year. I can't say I knew he had elbow problems. I don't know what the betting was on his previous games but it wouldn't hurt to know. I think I read his last start was his best of the year so this is surprising. As for the stats I think over a really large sample against LHP you have to hope that there are some LHP who felt extra great, RHP who also had some health problems that they didn't speak about, etc. to even things out. I do think that handicapping would have to consider that Danks poor stats this year so far might have been a health issue and take that into consideration in forecasting his future games with him specifically. I wouldn't argue it that removing stats like would be of assistance but can't think the cost/benefit of focusing so strongly on one area within the realm of this business would be worth it.

Danks's last start was against Iowa, er, I mean Chicago. Kind of like Will Smith's disastrous debut vs. the Yankees will have more perspective after his next start vs. Cleveland, I think it is. There are times where watching the games helps, unless the stats have gotten better. What I mean by that is you can learn a lot by seeing how often the catcher has to move the mitt because the pitch is inaccurate. Sometimes those mistakes get crushed. Sometimes they don't matter. And of course some pitchers are more reliant on hitting their spots than others. I've tried to look at this during in-game betting with mixed results.

Good point on Danks vs. Cubs. Yesterday, Stults won and Vargas lost. But let's check out how our only bet would be and that was Quintana vs. Cleveland. The opener wasn't up when I posted because of the pitching change but Quintana opened at +100 and now Matchbook is +112 on Cleveland so I would have had a nice scalp if I had bet Quintana on the open. No longer am I hypothetically just betting any LHP vs. a RHP. It had enough problems I felt I need more info. I'm now looking at LHP vs. teams I file away as poor hitting teams vs. LHP relative to their stats batting against RHP. I'll come back when the Day 6 card has Pinnacle openers.

Quite a few candidates for tomorrow. I'm supposed to not like SD against LHP so I would bet Santana although that is LHP vs. LHP in that game. My theoretical bet is -155 on Santana but he's already down to -148. I'm supposed to also bet Minor. That takes courage. But it is against Wash weaker vs. LH pitching from what I saw. I would have gotten +126 and the line is now +122. Buehrle pitching tomorrow vs the Giants. The Giants on my list of weak teams vs. LHP so I would have bet Buerhle at -130. The line is now -134 so the bet has held so far. Maholm vs. the Pirates that is his former team. Maybe there is an angle on that but Pittsburgh just shows up a bad hitting team and I didn't note anything especially poor about them. In fact the team OPS was better. So it is a pass this game. Garcia up against the Phillies. I didn't note any big difference there so it is a pass. Miley vs. the Brew Crew. The Brewers also a pass to bet against. Actually better vs. LHP. Maybe Braun is strong there. The Yankees back with CC. He was steamed last Sunday vs. the Reds. He's going against the A's this time. I didn't note anything on the A's. They're just a poor hitting team all around. I know they added Inge and he hit pretty well until he got hurt and he is a RH bat but he's still out. And there is WY Chen vs. KC. This seems to be a good one as I noted KC down as a team that clearly didn't appear as strong vs. LHP---at least in terms of OPS. I would have laid -130 there but that number is down to -123 already in early betting. Missed another one. Price vs. the Bosox and that is a pass in this test as well.

CC is from Vallejo, which is less than a half hour from Oakland. 2009-2011 he has a .203 BAA pitching in Oakland, which is far lower than the .242 vs. MLB. His WHIP is also about .08 lower (1.11 vs 1.19 it looks like). Oakland's stadium is a pitcher's park, however, so how much of that difference is because of that is a legitimate concern. It will also be unseasonably cool for tonight's and tomorrow's games (low 60s).