Nice article to read on totlas [I]Here is an excerpt from an article I read on Covers.Com early today. By the way, I did see one total this year at 5.5. I was there. Oswalt vs Lincecum. Final score 2-1.
Tim[/I]
There are more reasons for the summer of the pitcher outside of San Diego. There are the young pitchers named Ubaldo, Josh and Stephen, who have displayed dominance on the mound beyond their years. And there are the former Cy Young candidates still being their dominant selves like Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez.
The oddsmakers have been busy all summer adjusting the totals. In the past two months there have been seven totals of six runs, a figure unheard of the last few seasons. Totals of 7.5 and below are now commonplace when looking at the day’s baseball lines.
Adjustments had to be made after the ‘under’ consistently outperformed the ‘over’ through the first two months of the season. Even after the totals continued to drop, the under still owns a 686-665 edge this season.
Specifically, the lower the totals have been lately, the more likely the game will stay ‘under’. Since June 1, in games with a total of 7.5 or less, the over is only 66-77-3. It seems that the oddsmakers have found that totals of 6 and 6.5 are a little too much. The over is 19-13-1 in those situations.
Totals of 6 and 6.5 are usually only seen at Petco Park or at Safeco Field where the Seattle Mariners play. A recent interleague series turned out to be a match made in pitcher’s heaven when Seattle visited San Diego. In the three-game series, two totals were 6 with the other total being set at 6.5. Betting the under in those circumstances yields very little value because there’s little room for error.
It’s a different story when the totals are in the 7 and 7.5 range. Since June 1 in games with a total of 7, the over is 18-22-1. When the total is 7.5 the over is 30-42-1. Combined the over is 48-64-2 when the total is either 7 or 7.5.
Outside of San Diego and Seattle, oddsmakers have been reluctant to bring totals down to 6 and 6.5, so 7 and 7.5 seems to be the compromise that’s being settled on. In that range, regardless of the ballpark or the pitchers, recent history shows there’s plenty of value. New ballparks and new steroid policies have been a godsend for pitchers, if played right, those could also add up to be a nice windfall for bettors taking the under.