Patterson Baseball Totals Manifesto 2010 - Parts 1 and 2

Patterson Baseball Totals Manifesto 2010 - Parts 1 and 2 [B]Part 1[/B]: This is an updated 2010 version of a blog written at the all-star break in 2009. We are at the all star break and the season is 55% complete. This seems to be a good time for me to share a part of baseball wagering that I have grown to enjoy and profit at over the years. I've been wagering on bases since 1992 and have learned through trial and error what I am best at in this sport, betting baseball totals. Specifically, my area of expertise is wagering on the UNDER. I have made a nice profit at this style of play since I figured out what I excelled at around 7 years ago. "Stick at what you do best and hammer away" is my philosophy. For me, focusing on one aspect of the game allows me to narrow the choices down to 15 games a day (with a full schedule) throwing out sides and 5 inning lines. I spend a lot of time each day researching these totals narrowing down the choices to the games where I feel I have the best edge. There is no quick fix or solution to making a wager. Do your homework. Be informed. "Throwing darts" is not the answer and will lead to growing broke quickly. As in betting any sport, there is an element of luck, the bouncing ball theory, that you cannot control. Getting on the right side of the handicap is all you can do and over time should lead to profits. Be prepared for bad beats, especially when wagering on unders. I've lost track where a team has scored 5 or more runs in their last at bat turning what seemed to be an easy "Under 9" win into a 6-4 loser. Forget about them, put it behind you, turn the page and go to the next day. Below in no particular order is what I look for when researching my wagers for the day. My focus is on the "[B]under[/B]". However, many of the points can be used to look at an "over" when considering a wager. [B]The number "9[/B]". This is the magic number. As far as I'm concerned this is the critical number when looking at going under. 75%-80% of my totals wagers are "under 9" or higher. If you make a wager at under 8 1/2 and the game becomes tied at 4-4 you may as well tear up your ticket or hope for a monsoon, earthquake or riot. [B]NOTES[/B]: Always check when wagering on a half number what it will cost you to buy a half run. Most of the time it is too pricey but there are times I have bought that half run up to the whole number, especially when the over is juiced. It is common to pay 30 cents to go from 8 1/2 to 9 since that number is so critical. Although I don’t have specific statistics to back this next statement it is my perception that baseball totals are lower than any year in the last 5. As of July 1st the average runs per game stood at 8.9 compared to 9.3 at the same point last year (Sports Illustrated article, July 5th). That is almost a full ½ run less. The bookies were ready for this on opening day. I was shocked to see the small totals numbers in April that were posted. It appears there are a few reasons for the drop in runs: A drop in steroids use, a better understanding of developing pitchers, the new emphasis on defense, for example. [B]Umpires[/B]: A critical part of the handicap that I believe the lines makers do not consider. I believe some handicappers put too much emphasis on this. For me, a trend is when an umpire is at 65%, one way or the other. And, you should watch results for at least two months before forming an opinion. April and May, when the weather is cooler and the ball doesn't travel as far, you would expect less runs scored, no matter who the ump is. I start allowing an opinion to creep into my handicap once we hit mid June. I like to see a minimum of 12-15 games behind the plate. Also, I never allot more than 25% of my handicap to include the umpire. And, keep in mind if the ump is under 65% either way, I don't consider the umpire at all other than to say he is neutral or "slight trend" to one side. [B]Notes[/B]: You usually can't find who is behind the plate on the first game of the series until just before game time. Otherwise, the box score will give you who is behind the plate for the rest of the series by looking at who was on the bases. Home plate ump moves to 3rd base, 1st base rotates behind the plate. Umpires are reviewed regularly during the season by MLB. I do believe that as the season progresses an ump can and will change his strike zone if his zone is too extreme. And, some extreme umps can swing to the either side from year to year. [B]First half under umps[/B]: Bill Miller 14 of 20 – Greg Gibson 13 of 17 – Jim Wolf and Mike Estabrook 12 of 16. [B]First half Over umps[/B]: Mike Reilly and Tim Welke 13 of 17 [B]Weather[/B]: This used to be a major part of my handicap. It is not as large now. Heat is the biggest factor. Most parks, except for Wrigley and a few others, are newer and built to not make the wind as severe. I still check the weather every day. But, it is not as important as it used to be. [B]Ball parks[/B]. Know your ball yards!!! Some are phone booths (Yankees, Orioles, Philly),some are spacious (Giants, Dodgers), for example. They should be considered when researching your wagers. [B]Notes:[/B] What a difference a year makes!!! Texas home games open at 9 or 9.5. Last year they routinely were set at “10”.

Part 2 Section two of the Patterson Totals blog: [B]Ground ball/Fly ball ratio[/B]: All starting pitchers are tracked and labeled each time they pitch. It is a factor to consider. Ground ball pitchers might not give up as many gopher balls in a band-box ball park and "fly ballers" may do better pitching in a large ball yard where a "big fly" will land more often than not into an outfielders mitt. I'd like to point out that this statistic is not one of my major considerations when handicapping a game but it must be looked at and can get me on or off a total when I'm on the fence. [B]Team Hitting/Pitching trends[/B]: Watch my lips move. This is big. This is very big. Good pitching gets out good hitting and bad pitching allows an opponent in a funk to look like the 27 Yankees. Every team goes on pitching streaks (either way) and just as important, teams go on the same type of hitting streaks. Pitching and hitting are contagious. Ups and downs occur multiple times during a 162 game schedule. If you can get out in front of a team that is just starting to pitch well and/or go into a hitting funk you can get ahead real quick. Pound those totals until your wallet is worn out. [B]Notes[/B]: The Padres had a streak of 9 unders, the Giants 12 of 13 and the word is out on the once mighty Cards who have turned into a pitching/non hitting machine playing to 60% under in their games. On the other side of the coin there is Arizona. They can’t pitch. Period. Over 61% of their games have gone over. [B]Starting pitching[/B]: Check to see how each pitcher has performed recently. An ERA of 5.00 may include an outing where he gave up 7 runs in 2 innings, etc which will inflate his ERA.. Be sure to check how many pitches he usually throws. If his most recent outing was one where he threw 125+ pitches in a complete game effort and his normal total is 100, it is a buyer beware!!. Also, a pitcher on 3 days rest can be entirely different than one on 4. Check to see how an opponent hits against a left or right hander, especially recently. [B]Bullpens[/B]: Tread carefully when looking to bet a team under who can hit but can't pitch their way through a wet paper bag!!! Look at how the bullpens have fared, especially recently. Remember to check who pitched the previous day. A team with a dominant closer may have pitched 2 or even 3 days in a row. He will be unavailable more times than not. [B]Notes[/B]: I've had more headaches than I can remember wagering on a team which takes a lead and then lets it get away in the late innings causing a game to go way over. Look for team ERA’s. The Padres, Cardinals and Giants are the top 3 with the bottom feeders being Arizona, Pirates and Orioles this first half. [B]Fielding trends[/B]: Bad fielding teams let the runs come in!!!. You can't bet an under and expect a team to have to get 4 outs in an inning without damage being done. Good, speedy fielding teams, especially up the middle can keep runs to a minimum. The Washington Nationals lead the majors in errors with 75. Least errors? The Twins of Minnesota with 32. [B]Who is crossing the plate[/B]: Keep track of the teams that score/don’t score a lot of runs. The Red Sox lead the pack in runs scored with 481, the Yankees with 461 are second. Who are the two teams that don’t score? It’s the Pirates with 279 followed by the Mariners with 296.’ Notice that the Pirates can’t score or pitch. They have given up 472 runs. Run line against candidate? [B]Score Simulators[/B]: I have access to one (Accuscore in ESPN Insider). I am not overly impressed. Maybe it's just me but having watched this model for a season and a half season I am positive my manual method is superior and will be the first to say when my perception changes. I have an open mind and will continue to loosely track its success. For me, it is just another tool in the shed to use and has helped push me onto a game a few times. [B]Where is the information found[/B]?: Google is a wonderful thing. The information is out there. For baseball my favorite site for statistical information is Covers.Com. You can find most everything I've spoken about above. I do use Vegasinsider for some information including weather. ESPN and Insider give a lot of info, especially how the starting pitchers have historically fared against their opponent. MLB.Com is great for stats, too. The locals will at times have great info from a manager or pitching coach, how the team outlook is inside the clubhouse, etc. There are a ton of websites where you can find good info. It is out there if you'll take the time to go find it. [B]Misc notes[/B]: I always tread lightly the first week after the break. You just don't know how a team will respond after their annual "vacation". And, the hot, dog days later in the summer may yield tired arms in the rotation or bullpens. Below is a "[B]Readers Digest[/B]" version on how I break down games looking for an "Under Edge". Look at all games but consider numbers aligned at 9 or higher more often than not. After the 1st game of each series don't make a wager without knowing who is calling balls and strikes behind the plate. Teams slumping at the plate and/or pitching well churn out under winners on a regular basis. Know your bullpens and how they are trending. Look at games where a good pitcher had a bad outing and looks to bounce back this time. Look for teams to have a renewed defensive effort after a multi-error game. Know the ball yard and the teams playing in it. Develop a sense for how some teams are hitting or pitching and wager with your gut feeling. Understand the weather and how hard the wind is blowing but don't marry yourself to a position based on that info. [B]More info[/B]: Have multiple outs. You'd be surprised at the difference in the number or price from shop to shop. Look for reduced juice shops. You usually have to ask for the reduction in vig instead of a bonus. Once you feel comfortable betting totals and have a feel for how a team is scoring runs consider SELLING RUNS. Some shops allow this and I take advantage of it when I think I have a big edge. You can turn a 10.5 wager at -105 into an under 9.5 at +135. Warning! Be careful. [B]Footnote[/B]: This blog was written on Sunday, the last day of the 1st half. Stats do not include the Sunday games.

Great info, Tim ! Thanks

Now that's why we're all here. Heck of a contibution.