Write-up This should be another low scoring, tense game with whoever gets the big break (umpire call, blooper with men on, bad hop, etc) coming out ahead.
I ever so slightly favor the total over the side but still think these two wagers have the best chance of coming in.
At some point, one or both of these teams will finally get hot bats and start scoring. I just don't think it will happen tonight.
Here in a nutshell is why the total looks so good. A quote from Philles center fielder Shane Victorino:
"I don't know what we're doing, why we're not hitting. We're not going to sit here and worry about why we're not hitting. We're going to worry about when we're going to hit."
Combined with excellent Giants pitching and a Philly lineup that can't seem to get untracked, they are just not scoring.
Over the last three years the Phillies are hitting .199 at this ball yard and only .203 collectively this 2010 post season.
On top of that, one of the best kept secrets in baseball has been Madison Bumgarner, who has pitched very well since his call up. And, Philly has not batted against him yet.
With Blanton don't expect much of a change. His last 13 starts of 2010 his ERA was under 3.30. And, he's pitching in a friendly pitchers park.
Runs will be at a premium, here.
The key for Blanton is to throw early strikes. He was 8th in the league in throwing first pitch strikes, at 64%. When he got ahead of the hitters he was successful. When he fell behind he got hit pretty hard.
Reading the locals, it looks like The Phils wil look to be aggressive. They will swing early in the count, hit and run when on base and try to manufacture runs.
This is exactly what the Giants will also try to do. They know Blanton likes early strikes. Look for them to swing early and try to create situations to squeak out runs. Blanton is not the same in the stretch as he is from the windup.
I look for the Phils pen to get involved after 5 or 6 innings, the Giants in or after the 7th.
Watch for Bumgarner's nerves in the 1st inning. He will be vulnerable as he tries to settle in to his rhythm.
In the end, my gut tells me the Giants win a close, fast paced, low scoring game. It's the Giants and the under, two wagers.
News and notes: If you bet the Giants before the series started as big dogs, think about scalping back the Phils if the Giants win. This is no gimmie. If the Giants take a 3-1 lead there is no reason to think the Phils can't win the last three with that staff all pitching on regular rest, two of them at home.
