Prof Meyer's 8/12 MLB Play One play today. CHICAGO (AL) -115 over Minnesota – Gavin Floyd has been spectacular recently, going at least seven innings in each of his last four starts and allowing a total of three runs. The White Sox are 3-0 in his last three starts, winning 11-0, 4-1 and 4-2. One might theorize that Liriano would get “up” to face a starter that is doing well, but this is not the case. Minnesota is 0-6 as a dog with Liriano vs a team that won their starter’s last two starts. Each one of the six losses was by at least THREE runs and the average final score was Opponent 6.2 runs, Minnesota 2.3 runs. In Liriano’s last start in this situation the Twins were in Detroit vs Verlander and Liriano was tagged for seven runs in the first two innings. The conditions here are very similar. On the contrary, the White Sox are 7-0 with Gavin Floyd as a favorite when he had a quality start in his last outing, crushing their opponent by an average of 4.3 runs. The White Sox and Floyd have allowed an average of 1.3 runs per game in this spot. Wow. The Twins lost Liriano’s last start 7-6 in Cleveland. This has been a terrible spot for Liriano, as the Twins are 0-8 in franchise history on the road vs a divisional opponent with Liriano when they lost his last start. Minnesota lost every game by multiple runs and Liriano has ZERO quality starts in this situation. See for yourself with this SDQL: starter=Francisco Liriano and A and s:L and DIV Ouch. In yesterday’s game, both teams managed only six hits. However, the White Sox got the hits in the right spots and won 6-1. Chicago left only four men stranded the entire game. This is a motivating stat for the Sox and a deflating stat for the Twins. Chicago is a best-in league 11-0 (+3.5 rpg) at home after a win in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base. On the other hand, the Twins are a league-worst 1-15 as a road dog vs an AL foe when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base. Finally, the White Sox are a reliable 6-0 THIS season as a favorite after a win in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings and 7-0 as a home favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits. With the linesmakers overestimating the effectiveness of Liriano in this spot, we’ll lay the small price. MTi’s FORECAST: CHICAGO 6 Minnesota 2