Prof Meyer's 8/22 MLB Play

Prof Meyer's 8/22 MLB Play As always, comments/criticisms appreciated. San Diego -120 over MILWAUKEE – After winning 10-of-11, the Padres have now lost two straight and are in danger of getting swept by Milwaukee. San Diego has been very resilient in this spot. The Padres are 6-0 in the last game of a three game series when they lost the first two, 10-0 in the last game of any series when they are off a loss and a best-in-league 21-4 THIS season when they are off a loss in which they never led. The fact that this game is early actually favors the Padres because Milwaukee is 0-5 when Manny Parra starts in the afternoon and the Padres are 6-0 THIS season when Jon Garland starts in the afternoon. Manny Parra is also terrible vs a team on a losing streak. The Brewers are 0-7 when Parra starts vs a team that has lost at least their last two games – and Parra has been absolutely torched. Milwaukee has lost these seven games by an average final score of 9.14 runs to 3.86 runs. Parra has an ERA of 10.8 in these seven starts and has had ZERO quality starts. In his three starts in this spot this season, the Brewers lost 9-5, 11-6 and 15-3. Parra allowed 20 runs in 16 innings of work over the three starts. Jon Garland is off two shutout wins, and the Padres are 6-0 in franchise history when Garland starts on the road after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs. The Brewers have caved in under these conditions. Milwaukee is 0-8 in the last game of a series when their line is within 35 cents of pick and they are off a win in which they never trailed – getting brutalized by an average of 5.0 runs per game.

MTi’s FORECAST: San Diego 8 MILWAUKEE 2

Great write-up! With you on this one as my best today. Look for Garland to go his usual 6 to 7 innings and turn it over to the Pod's superior pen. GL, RUDY

6-7 solid from Garland then the superior pen! That sounds like a good plan. Garland has been solid with five straight quality starts. Padres should have their game face on here. It looks like we have company in our reasoning, as this line has moved from -115 to -135. Prof. M.

Agree with the play. The first three grafs especially are stats that a team could notice. Dunno what you can do with this, but Oakland just recorded their 15th straight QS and their starters have gone at least six for 20 straight. One or both of those hasn't happened to the A's since 1927. (I forget which because I was driving when I heard it.)

Another great call Prof. Thanks!

Good call PM--do you have your YTD MLB record for the plays you've posted here?

Posting Record? I don't have the record. I will say that I started on something like an 0-5 run, but they have been better recently. Since I started handicapping baseball in 2008, my plays are: 647-643-10 (50.2%, +$10,682) as can be seen on Vegas Insider. The profit of $10,682 is based on betting to win $100. That's plus 106.8 net games. I release a lot of underdogs, with some small favorites. I believe that this is ranked #1 since 2008 out of the 36 or so MLB handicappers at Vegas Insider. My overall results this season have not been as good as in the first two. Prof Meyer