Prof Meyer's 8/6 MLB PLAY w/SDQL

Prof Meyer's 8/6 MLB PLAY w/SDQL I'm 0-3 posting plays here. Here is number four. As always, comments welcome. FLORIDA +120 over St Louis -- There are two types of stoppers on a team’s pitching staff -- one in the bullpen and one in the starting rotation. The stopper in the starting rotation is the pitcher you want on the mound when the team is on a losing streak, because he is at his best when the team is struggling. The Marlins have the best Stopper in the entire league. Florida is a perfect 11-0 in franchise history when Ricky Nolasco starts and they are on at least a three-game losing streak (starter=Ricky Nolasco and streak=3 and p:L and season>=2008). Ricky produced a quality start in all eight games. In his two starts in this spot this season, the Marlins won 5-1 in Philadelphia and 3-2 in Arizona vs Dan Haren. In Wainwright’s last start, the Cardinals won 9-1 as a big home favorite over Pittsburgh. Adam went seven innings and allowed the lone run on six hits. As good as he has been this season, he has not produced a team win in this spot. St Louis is 0-6 THIS season with Adam Wainwright on the road when he is off a home start in which he went at least six innings and did not allow a home run (starter=Adam Wainwright and 2010=6 and s:H). He hasn’t produced a quality start in his last three games in this situation and the Cardinals, not surprisingly, were the favorite in five of the six games. In Wainwright only appearance vs Florida this season, they won 4-2 as a 230 home favorite. Florida is great as a dog when seeking revenge vs a starting pitcher. The Fish are a best-in-league 21-11 as a dog when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher, producing a profit of 18.05 net units. The Padres are second-best with +7.85 net units. The Cardinals are off an easy 8-4 win over the Astros in which they scored seven runs in the first two innings. No team in the league – by far – has burned more cash in this situation than the Cardinals. St Louis is a disastrous 56-93 on the road when they are off a win in which they never trailed, costing their backers an amazing 47.2 net units. The Brewers are a distant second, dropping 27.55 net units. The Cardinals have been in this situation seven times since late May and they lost by multiple runs each time. Their starters have produced ZERO quality starts in the seven games. In Wainwright’s lone start in these seven games, the Cards lost 5-0 in Toronto. Finally, the Cardinals are 0-11 since May on the road when they are of a win as a favorite (team=Cardinals and A and p:WF and 20100504

I like the some starting pitchers as a stopper angle as a future possibility. The Wainwright if he did or didn't give up a home run, or the number of hits the Marlins allowed are two things that IMO only serve to data mine winning or losing records. An angle I've heard talked about on another board that I was wondering if we could look up: The guy says to play any streak over 3 games after the All-Star break. So you would play on teams with winning streaks of 3 or more, and fade teams on losing streaks of 3 or more. Maybe a month > July, win streak >3. Then same for losing streak > 3.

I first read of the three-game losing/winning streak strategy in Sport magazine in the late '80s. I would use it only when I could get plus-money, because I figured otherwise the streak was built into the line. (I always think everything is built into the line. I'm funny that way.) I guess this DB can explain the utility of this strategy once and for all.