Prof Meyer's 8/8 Play I lost with the Padres yesterday. When San Diego failed to score with second and third and one out in the top of the first, I got a bad feeling. Now 0-5 with my plays. Undaunted, here is number six.
Chicago (AL) -130 over BALTIMORE – The Orioles were on a nice run after Showalter took over as manager. However, the White Sox battled back from an early 2-0 deficit to win 4-2. We like them again here. Chicago is 12-0 as a favorite after a win in which they left fewer than 10 men on base and it is not the first game of a series, 10-0 as a favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and 8-0 THIS season as a favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is not the first game of a series. The SDQL text for the latter of these three is:
team=White Sox and 2010=season and F and p:W and po:BL>0 and SG>1
Note that the Sox have won these eight games by an average of 3.9 runs and each of the last six have been by multiple runs – and FOUR were shutouts. Note further that the White Sox’ starting pitcher produced a quality start in each of the eight games.
Both of these starters are off solid outings. Guthrie went seven innings and allowed three runs in a 6-3 win over the Angels and Buehrle went seven and two-thirds in a 12-2 win over the Tigers. Indeed, their previous starts were similar, but how they respond is very different. The Sox are 12-0 with Buehrle when he is off a road start in which he went six innings and allowed no home runs, as long as they did not lose by multiple runs. The SDQL text is:
starter=Mark Buehrle and s:SHRA=0 and s:SIP>=6 and s:A and s:margin>-2 and 2008050120090415
As a team, Baltimore is 0-11 after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base and 1-19 THIS season as a dog of more than +100 when they are off a multiple-run loss in which they held the lead. Lay the smallish price.
MTi’s FORECAST: Chicago 4 BALTIMORE 0
