Prof Meyer's MLB Play 9/13 All trends and systems quoted here can be verified with the SDQL.
Washington +170 over ATLANTA – The Braves are off a four-game series with the Cardinals and they played last night on National TV. They are in a let-down spot here and they have demonstrated vulnerability in this spot. Atlanta is 6-15 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games, including 4-9 as a home favorite, averaging minus 164. Ouch.
Further, the Braves are 0-5 since late June as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has lost their last three games. Furthermore, Atlanta is 10-13 as a home 140+ favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led and 5-11 as a home favorite after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks.
The Nats have lost five straight, which will only increase the Braves’ lethargy. Washington is 10-6 THIS season as a 140+ dog in the first game a series and 10-3 as a dog in the first game of a series when they are off a loss.
In addition, the Nationals are 4-0 as a 170+ dog when they are off a loss in which they never led – beating Lincecum, Lowe, Kershaw and Carpenter. Nice.
Derek Lowe should be a victim here for the second time. The Braves are 0-5 with Lowe as a favorite when they lost the last time he started against their opponent. That is, the Braves are 0-5 when Lowe is seeking revenge for a team loss in his last start vs this opponent. Lowe also suffers from a lackadaisical attitude when facing a struggling squad, going 0-5 when he starts vs a team that has lost at least their last two games. In his last four starts vs the Nationals, Lowe is 0-4 with no quality starts. Washington will see this as a win opportunity and come in which confidence. Grab the price.
MTi’s FORECAST: Washington 5 ATLANTA 3
