Prof Meyer's MLB Play of the Day

Prof Meyer's MLB Play of the Day Our Play of the Day for 7/27 COLORADO -210 over Pittsburgh – The Pirates are coming off a ten-game homestand in which they were 4-6. They lost each of their last four games and now have to travel to Colorado to take on the Rockies and De La Rosa. This is a big number to lay, but we have plenty of solid evidence that the Rockies are better than 70% to win this game. In Zach Duke’s last outing, the Pirates won 15-3 over the Brewers with Zach going six innings and allowing two earned runs. This has been the proverbial “kiss-of-death” for Pittsburgh’s chances in his next start, as the Pirates are 0-19 as a road dog with Duke when he pitched more than six innings and won his last start. See for yourself with this SDQL text: starter=Zach Duke and AD and s:W and s:SIP>5 and date>20050801 In Pittsburgh’s last game, they were beaten 6-3 by the Padres after taking an early 2-0 lead. This is a bad sign for them. The Pirates are 0-12 as a 140+ dog after allowing 6+ runs and 0-8 as a dog in the first game of a series when they are off a loss in which they held the lead. Colorado is off an eleven-game road trip in which they lost their last six. Homecoming has been the magic elixir for the Rockies, as they are 9-0 as a favorite in the first game of a home series when they are off a loss, winning by an average of 3.6 runs per game. De La Rosa is excellent under these conditions, going a perfect 11-0 at home vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game. As a member of the Pirates, Zach Duke has had many opportunities to break a long losing streak. He has not been successful. Pittsburgh is 0-16 (-4.2 rpg) when Zach Duke starts on the road and they have lost their last three games. Thirteen of the last fourteen losses in this situation were by MULTIPLE runs. The Rockies should be minus 300 in this spot. Lay the 210. MTi’s FORECAST: COLORADO 8 Pittsburgh 2

[QUOTE=Prof Meyer;24220] The Rockies should be minus 300 in this spot. Lay the 210. MTi’s FORECAST: COLORADO 8 Pittsburgh 2[/QUOTE] I take it the "MTI forecast" is more of just a random blowout score you come up with for marketing, and you don't have a program that actually comes up with an MLB team projected to be a 6 run favorite in a game? Either way, I don't think an 8-2 projection translates too well to a -300 moneyline.

I think it was Iceman on BetTalk running a thread where he just played against the Pirates when they are on the road. Road record 11-38. He was up to 15-2 or something like that before the break.

The forecasted final score [QUOTE=Twoniner;24228]I take it the "MTI forecast" is more of just a random blowout score you come up with for marketing, and you don't have a program that actually comes up with an MLB team projected to be a 6 run favorite in a game? Either way, I don't think an 8-2 projection translates too well to a -300 moneyline.[/QUOTE] The forecast is not a result of a computer program. It is our best guess at the actual final score. The average margin of victory for 200+ home favorites that win over the past six-plus seasons is 3.9 runs, so the projection -- while certainly optimistic -- is not that ridiculous. Prof Meyer

[QUOTE=Prof Meyer;24236]The forecast is not a result of a computer program. It is our best guess at the actual final score. The average margin of victory for 200+ home favorites [b]that win[/b] over the past six-plus seasons is 3.9 runs, so the projection -- while certainly optimistic -- is not that ridiculous. Prof Meyer[/QUOTE] Fair enough. Actual scoring projections don't work backward from the premise that your team is 100% going to win the game at hand, but if it's just a guess number thrown out at the end of a writeup, then no harm no foul. I do like yall's database, but think some of these angles are just drawing red circles around past randomness. For this game, I can see some legitimacy to a general road ineptness of the Pirates, and Zach Duke in particular being better at home. De La Rosa at home vs a free swinging team also might have some merit. Pirates first game of series as >+140 dog after blowing a lead etc.. likely not relevant in my opinion. Good luck

[QUOTE=Twoniner;24245]Fair enough. Actual scoring projections don't work backward from the premise that your team is 100% going to win the game at hand, but if it's just a guess number thrown out at the end of a writeup, then no harm no foul. I do like yall's database, but think some of these angles are just drawing red circles around past randomness. For this game, I can see some legitimacy to a general road ineptness of the Pirates, and Zach Duke in particular being better at home. De La Rosa at home vs a free swinging team also might have some merit. Pirates first game of series as >+140 dog after blowing a lead etc.. likely not relevant in my opinion. Good luck[/QUOTE] Twoniner, Thanks for the valuable comments. I have no problems with any of them, and will take them into consideration when making future posts. That said, I'm going to continue to monitor the situation when a bad team is off a loss in which they blew a lead. It makes sense to me that they may play with a defeatist attitude in this spot. But it also may not be relevant, as you suggested. Actually, now that I think about it, a team losing a lot of games in a row as a 140+ road dog is not that revealing. Prof Meyer

That's all that's being said, I think. It's nice that you can take a punch. Look into them being a small favorite in such a setting. It happens far less often, I bet, but perhaps there is value there.

[QUOTE=Prof Meyer;24250]Twoniner, Thanks for the valuable comments. I have no problems with any of them, and will take them into consideration when making future posts. That said, I'm going to continue to monitor the situation when a bad team is off a loss in which they blew a lead. It makes sense to me that they may play with a defeatist attitude in this spot. But it also may not be relevant, as you suggested. Actually, now that I think about it, a team losing a lot of games in a row as a 140+ road dog is not that revealing. Prof Meyer[/QUOTE] I'd agree with the price range stuff probably being the least likely to carry over real trends. The blown lead and motivation or lack of motivation, I could possibly see. One question with the database that I had, that I haven't seen in other places like Statfox/covers etc. Is there a way for you to look at getaway day situations in the database? Basically, anytime a team is scheduled to play in a different city the very next day. Lots of anecdotal evidence of teams playing worse offensively, specifically less plate discipline, in these spots. It's also something that could be somewhat team specific (bad teams playing worse ready to hit the road), or opposing pitcher specific (hitting worse vs. wild pitchers perhaps).

[QUOTE=Twoniner;24256]I'd agree with the price range stuff probably being the least likely to carry over real trends. The blown lead and motivation or lack of motivation, I could possibly see. One question with the database that I had, that I haven't seen in other places like Statfox/covers etc. Is there a way for you to look at getaway day situations in the database? Basically, anytime a team is scheduled to play in a different city the very next day. Lots of anecdotal evidence of teams playing worse offensively, specifically less plate discipline, in these spots. It's also something that could be somewhat team specific (bad teams playing worse ready to hit the road), or opposing pitcher specific (hitting worse vs. wild pitchers perhaps).[/QUOTE] Very good intuition here. Thanks for the thoughts and time.

Getaway day I think these queryable. The SDQL: H and n:A and n:rest=0 translates as: at home, next on the road and next rest=0. It further translates as "at home with a road game tomorrow. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that the other getaway day queries would be: A and n:H and n:rest=0 and A and n:A and n:rest=0 and n:SG=1 The last phrase in the last query means that the next game is the first game of series. To query all getaway days I believe that: SG=SGS and not (H and n:H) and n:rest=0 will work. This translates as: the number of the game in the series is equal to the total number of games in the series; either this game or the next game is on the road and; they will have no rest in their next game. Note that the start time of the game can be included as well. Please let me know if this is not clear. Prof Meyer