Reds/Yankees Friday

Reds/Yankees Friday Perhaps not strange in the direction of the line movement but the magnitude of it is fairly dramatic. The Yankees opened at -124 and have now gone to -168 vs. the Reds today in a series of moves. This is important because I think it tells me that new people and groups are looking at this and willing to bet this at higher prices although they are clearly aware that they have missed the best price. It was -140 or so this morning. That got hit up to -150 and evidently someone looked at that and they needed that bet and here we are. It is Arroyo vs. Pettitte. I'm not sure what the angle is. It is only Pettitte's 2nd start since coming back. I don't have any details but he gave up a few homers in his first start. I'm sure he's all right but unless he pitches very well the Reds will probably get to the bullpen and we know Robertson and Rivera are injured. The Yanks have a few good guys still in that pen but it does hurt the Yanks. I guess I'm trying to eliminate this angle as the reason for the play. This doesn't seem a great angle on Pettitte but I don't know. He has great stats against the Reds but hasn't pitched against them since 2008 so it has to be of somewhat low input into a model. So maybe it is on Arroyo. He does stink against the Yankees and he often stinks against anyone when he's in a bad groove. The Yankees will definitely hurt you with their lineup. He had a bad start last time. But he hasn't pitched against the Yankees since 2005. It is hard to read much into that. The Yanks have a great interleague record but how much can you push this play over that? The Reds were an 87 win team in over/under RSW I recall. I mean they're actually a decent team. I would think Votto and Bruce can't wait to hit in this place. I don't know what the right number is but I once learned linear interpolation and you know if it were 124+168/2 for 146 I think that would be enough for me. I actually put in a bet on the Reds at +1.5-126. I'll dump most of it for a win or lose scalp and live with a small bet on it at this price.

I looked into the Reds just vs. LHP to see if there is a special angle on that. The Reds do hit .264 which is 7th highest in the majors but I noted only 5 HR which is 27th in MLB and the 29 runs is pretty low too. That does seem it is worth looking at Votto and Bruce now specifically ( it already was I just didn't). Votto doesn't have any homers from the left side but is hitting .286 with OPS of .860 . Bruce is hitting .290 OPS of .800. They do strike out much more frequently though and the power numbers are lower overall. Votto has an OPS of 1.138 vs. RHP. Maybe this is the reasoning for it. It is interpreted they are weak vs. LHP. I think that is open for debate with the high average and the OPS is 11th. But the power numbers aren't there and perhaps they feel that Votto and Bruce will be limited by Pettitte to the extent he lasts in the game. I don't know their W/L vs. LHP starting as a team. Trying to find that out. It hasn't made me change anything yet this information and not sure this is it but a suggestion.

[QUOTE=Skeeter;52277]I looked into the Reds just vs. LHP to see if there is a special angle on that. The Reds do hit .264 which is 7th highest in the majors but I noted only 5 HR which is 27th in MLB and the 29 runs is pretty low too. That does seem it is worth looking at Votto and Bruce now specifically ( it already was I just didn't). Votto doesn't have any homers from the left side but is hitting .286 with OPS of .860 . Bruce is hitting .290 OPS of .800. They do strike out much more frequently though and the power numbers are lower overall. Votto has an OPS of 1.138 vs. RHP. Maybe this is the reasoning for it. It is interpreted they are weak vs. LHP. I think that is open for debate with the high average and the OPS is 11th. But the power numbers aren't there and perhaps they feel that Votto and Bruce will be limited by Pettitte to the extent he lasts in the game. I don't know their W/L vs. LHP starting as a team. Trying to find that out. It hasn't made me change anything yet this information and not sure this is it but a suggestion.[/QUOTE] So far this year, the Reds are 5-5 vs LHP, and 10-10 on the road

Thank you. That seems pretty decent at least intuitively. These moves are a nice study. I looked at the DH and it is Miguel Cairo. Quite honestly, I would figure they could do better than that so that is a negative. I don't like that with my small bet on the Reds. But I would like it less betting the Yankees who are sitting Texeira and moved Swisher to 1B for tonight. Chavez at DH- who seems to do all right I guess. Stewart starting for Martin. Can't really comment on that. And then Wise in LF got to be one of his few starts. I remember this guy a failed Blue Jays prospect didn't even know he was with them and would have maybe thought he was with no one. When they're pounding these numbers I can't believe the Yankee lineup is in their favour. But Yanks up 1-0 in the 5th.

I though I would just come back to this again. This was a loser the other night and I bet the Reds yday and again today. I deliberately didn't put it up this time before the game (0-0) I saw in 3rd because it is a small bet and nothing I'm really saying is anything great but it was interesting once again that there was a big move on the Yanks with CC pitching. And I played the Reds late. No doubt I have to assume these moves are sharp but what is the breakdown of the reasoning of the moves between the following: (1) LHP vs. Reds lineup. (2) Any LHP vs. any lineup. (3) Something else. If one notices a few of the steam moves today two others I noted were Maholm and Chen (Orioles pitcher) as well as CC. I'll track any LHP vs. any team for a week the opening number at Pinnacle and try to look at a Matchbook number on the game sometime in the minutes to hours before first pitch and see if there is even a profitable scalp in just making these plays as perhaps someone sharp just doesn't think the odds are reflecting enough of an impact LHP (all? a strong subset?) has on the opposition (all? some?).