Regular season wins futures and big free agent signings by small market teams Hindsight is always 20-20, of course, but did anyone think the Mariners were going to contend? Did anyone think that they were going to trade Lee midway through the year if it didn't work out, the same way, for example, the A's traded Holliday last year?
Regular season wins futures do not take this into account. It seems that they look at the Opening Day roster to determine how the team will be all season. But sometimes a small-budget team signs a big name, only to deal it halfway through the year, and you can kind of predict that it will happen. (That said, I am surprised Gil Meche is still in Kansas City.)
Another angle: Sometimes teams sign or trade for these guys because they will be free agents, and then they get the compensatory picks. If you know what type of free agent a pitcher will be (Type A, Type B etc.), you can use that to help determine the likelihood one of these tightwad-owner-run teams keeps the guy till the end of the season. (Is this why the A's signed Ben Sheets for only one year?)
This offseason, let's make a mental note of the big names and where they sign.
