RudyNYCSports MLB Play of the Day - 4/13/2011 Yesterday: 0-1, -2.58 Hamiltons
Season: 10-6 +6.12 Units
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[U]Wednesday's Play:[/U]
[B]Cubs/Astros OVER 7.5 -102 (5dimes) 2 units[/B]
Here we have a match-up where we believe the total is set too low for the situation. Let us tell you why. First, let's get the obvious out of the way. Neither starter, Carlos Zambrano for the Cubs and Wandy Rodriguez for the 'Stros has really pitcher that well to be on either side of a 7.5 UNDER total (2011 Z'man: 1-0, 5.25 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .279 BAA and 2011 W'rod: 0-1, 6.55 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and .354). In fact, their reputations precede those stats and that is one of the reasons this line is set low.
Next, there is a false conception that these teams cannot hit. Wrong! The 'Stros are 5th out of 30 MLB teams in batting average and the Cubs 8th. Again, the perception is that neither team hits. This is a hitter's ballpark with strange gaps and a tilted putting green in deep center. Translation: RUNS, RUNS, RUNS.
More on Zambrano: the public opinion is that his head is screwed on right and he is back. That is based on his last outing where he actually won. In that victory over the Brewers he labored through 6 innings, giving up 4 runs, translation: 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and .318 BAA for the game! We are not sold on Z'man being back and we are not sold on Charlie Sheen actually WINNNNNNING either.
Yes, we know W'Rod pitches better at home but not well enough to contribute to an UNDER 7.5. And yes, we know Zambrano has played to the UNDER in 20 of his last 26 starts vs. Houston but that is mostly the old, or should we say younger and more sane, Z'man. We are all OVER the OVER!!!
GL
Rudy
