RUDY's MLB 4/26 - 5/2

RUDY's MLB 4/26 - 5/2 [B]0-1 -3.66 units (yesterday) 42-25 +32.82 units (2010 MLB season to date) ------------------------------------------------------- [U]Plays for Monday night:[/U] 953 Monday, 4/26/2010 [U]San Diego Padres (+143)[/U] 2 units 7:10pm EST @ Florida Marlins Let’s get the contradictory facts out first: Latos got crushed in his only start against the Marlins, whereas Johnson has pitched moderately well against the Padres in his career. But let’s roll the clock forward to 2010. Latos (1-1, 3.57 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .250 BAA) has been pitching well including a 1-0 win over the Giants last out. Johnson (1-1, 4.09 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and .268 BAA), who remains on a pitch count, will turn the ball over to an erratic bullpen. Both teams are hitting but we like the Padres as a dog here to pick up a win having lost yesterday after 8 straight victories. NOTES: wait on this as the line should move higher and consider the OVER 8, too. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 956 Monday, 4/26/2010 [U]Chicago Cubs (-150)[/U] 2 units 8:05pm EST @ Chicago Cubs Cubs, who are starting to play ball once again having won 4 of their last 5, are 9-2 last 11 versus the Nats, who are not the same team on the road. Silva (2-0, 0.95 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, and .152 BAA) has been close to perfect, whereas Lannan (1-1, 5.81 ERA, 1.89 WHIP and .338 BAA) has been all over the place in 3 of 4 of his starts. The Nats bullpen has been carrying them of late, but were used hard the last couple of days in close affairs versus the Dodgers. You know what we think of the Cubs lousy pen, but they seem to be coming around a bit and Silva can eat innings. We usually do not lay -150 (as high as we will go) but the Cubs look ripe and the Nats are usually flat on the road may have to sit Ryan Zimmerman with a hammy. Different looking team without RZ in the middle of that lineup.[/B] [B]GL RUDY[/B]

SD/Fla over is a great play, but don't look too much into Latos' performance vs. the Giants. That team hasn't been able to score against mediocre pitching all year. Maybe Fla on the 5-inning line, but the Over 8 is the one I'd recommend. ChC/Was analysis makes sense, although the over looks better in that game too. Here's hoping you turn it around 2-0 today!

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;21210]SD/Fla over is a great play, but don't look too much into Latos' performance vs. the Giants. That team hasn't been able to score against mediocre pitching all year. Maybe Fla on the 5-inning line, but the Over 8 is the one I'd recommend. ChC/Was analysis makes sense, although the over looks better in that game too. Here's hoping you turn it around 2-0 today![/QUOTE] [B]I agree on most points. Yes, Latos caught the Jints flat footed last week but his control was excellent. Since you and I are "WHIP guys", his minimal number of walks this year vs. last year reflects well in his 1.13 WHIP. I played the OVER already as I see it moving to 8.5 but I'm waiting on playing the Pods as I see Josh money coming in this afternoon. In Chicago,I'm a bit concerned that the Nats might come out real flat tonight, hence, I cannot endorse the OVER. I laid the 150, the highest I typically go, already in case it drifts higher. Always appreciate your comments. GL today, RUDY[/B]

Tuesday, April 27 Plays of the Day [B]1-1 +00.00 units (yesterday) 43-26 +32.82 units (2010 MLB Season to date) ---------------------------------------------------- [U]Tuesday Night:[/U] 905 Tuesday, 4/27/2010 [U]Washington Nationals (+143)[/U] 2 units 8:05pm EST @ Chicago Cubs 910 Tuesday, 4/27/2010 [U]Milwaukee Brewers (RL -1.5 -105)[/U] 2 units 8:10pm EST @ Milwaukee Brewers (NOTE: have to fore go any commentary due to massive migraine; fellow sufferers will relate) GL, RUDY[/B]

Again with the home team -1.5--lol. This one actually looks better--but I sure hate betting these -1.5 homers. BOL

[QUOTE=BuckyBadger;21245]Again with the home team -1.5--lol. This one actually looks better--but I sure hate betting these -1.5 homers. BOL[/QUOTE] [B]BB, I look at this one as "an opportunity"...Wolf pitching well, Karstens has never pitched well, and the Brew Crew has beaten Pirates 4-0 this year by a combined score of 53-4 (8-1, 8-0, 20-0, and 17-3)...have to like their chances to cover the RL...we'll see what happens. GL, RUDY[/B]

Hey Rudy, just catching up to some threads here. Great start to the season. I want to ask you about something you said in last week’s thread: [QUOTE=RudyNYCSports;21187]I tell my followers never to tail me blind. Very often, I have six to ten plays on a given day. The same logic apples. I tell them to make straight plays on the ones you agree with the most. Use the others in small amount parlays. This formula has been extremely successful over the years.[/QUOTE] Can you explain the rationale behind this advice? Bet some plays straight and parlay the others? It doesn’t make much sense to me. I don’t follow baseball much so I wouldn’t have a clue about which plays to agree with.

[QUOTE=Doc;21259]Hey Rudy, just catching up to some threads here. Great start to the season. I want to ask you about something you said in last week’s thread: Can you explain the rationale behind this advice? Bet some plays straight and parlay the others? It doesn’t make much sense to me. I don’t follow baseball much so I wouldn’t have a clue about which plays to agree with.[/QUOTE] [B]Doc, I'll get back to this in a few hours; full card today in MLB. RUDY[/B]

Wednesday 4/28 Plays of the Day [B]1-1 +0.76 units (yesterday) 44-27 +33.58 units (2010 MLB season) ------------------------------------------- [U]Wednesday's plays:[/U] 967 Wednesday, 4/28/2010 [U]Kansas City Royals/Seattle Mariners Over 9.5[/U] 2 units 2:10pm EST @ Kansas City Royals We have been tossing and turning on releasing this OVER play as our initial inclination was to play OVER Gil Meche (0-2, 11.37 ERA, 2.45 WHI, .339 BAA). But we needed justification to play the OVER with a weak hitting Mariners (.223 road BA) team on the last game of a road trip. We think we found it. Rowland Smith (0-1, 4.63 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, .244 BAA) has decent numbers. However, these are his road numbers: 5.23 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 3.18 BAA. Both pens are in shambles. KC bats have been cool of late but we believe they will get to Rowland-Smith and the Mariners should get some batting practice in against Meche. Lastly, we do have an OVER ump in Bob Davidson. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 977 Wednesday, 4/28/2010 [U]Tampa Bay Rays/Oakland Athletics Under 8.5[/U] 2 units 7:10pm EST @ Tampa Bay Rays In Tampa tonight we have two hot pitchers facing one another. D Braden (3-0, 2.77 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, .198 BAA) has had 4 of 4 quality starts and J Shields (2-0, 3.96 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, .272 BAA) is coming off his strongest start of the season. Both pens have been consistently strong, especially the A’s, and we have Andy Fletcher, who was one of the top UNDER umps in 2009, behind the dish. A’s have a .231 BA on the road. This UNDER will be determined by Braden’s ability to stop the Rays. We think he will as his career numbers against the Rays are 3-1, 3.72 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .243 BAA. Wait on putting this one in, this total might go to 9. GL RUDY [/B]

[QUOTE=Doc;21259]Hey Rudy, just catching up to some threads here. Great start to the season. I want to ask you about something you said in last week’s thread: Can you explain the rationale behind this advice? Bet some plays straight and parlay the others? It doesn’t make much sense to me. I don’t follow baseball much so I wouldn’t have a clue about which plays to agree with.[/QUOTE] [B]Doc, My partner and I, in addition to handicapping, advise our followers as to how to make our plays. Before I get into this, I did say "small amount" parlays. The bulk share of our plays we advise straight wagers, sometimes reverses. Other "leans" or lighter plays we will suggest round robin parlays with 2's [U]and[/U] 3's. We consider this a form of hedging. Let me explain: Suppose on a given day we are on the Yanks RL -115, Phils RL +115 and a smaller play on the Pirates +180. We will suggest a straight play (or reverse)on each of the RL plays and a small straight play on the dog Pirates. We will also suggest a rd robin reverse with the Yanks say -225, Phils -190 and the Pirates +180. By playing 2's and 3's, this will cash nicely if all three win and will get most of the total investment back (the hedge) if two of the three win. if one or none win, so be it, afterall, the parlay is a "small" investment. When we are on many plays, we suggest various scenarios on the entire card. Winning in baseball requires more than handicapping. It requires creativity with an eye on money management. I hope the above answered your question and is not too confusing to follow. GL always, RUDY[/B]