Some advice please

Some advice please Would appreciate some of your thoughts on a baseball capper who recommends ML betting to risk your unit amount rather than what I thought was the industry norm of betting to win your unit amount. He also recommends a lot of -150 and -170 favorites. To me the math is pretty obvious what as to what he is doing. Any comments would be appreciated. Thanks.

I do not change my unit amount based on the line I am betting. The dollar amount on a one unit play will be the same whether I bet a team -150 or +150. That's just me. I am not a pro. I think if you keep increasing your amount bet when you bet favs it would not be a winning method over a full season. I could be wrong, but that is what I have always done.

[QUOTE=bluehorseshoe;51790]I do not change my unit amount based on the line I am betting. The dollar amount on a one unit play will be the same whether I bet a team -150 or +150. That's just me. I am not a pro. I think if you keep increasing your amount bet when you bet favs it would not be a winning method over a full season. I could be wrong, but that is what I have always done.[/QUOTE] I agree - your unit amount (risk bet) stays the same - the line/odds will not affect your bet - you will win/lose more on some - - -

I don't think that's what's intended. For example, if your unit is 100 and the line is -200 and Fez indicates a 2 weight bet, he means bet 400 to win 200, not 200 to win 100. But I've never clarified that with him, so let's see what he says.

When his record was calculated, it assumed, using your figures, that a 2 weight bet at -200 was a 4 unit bet to win 2 units.

I'm in the minority on this, but I'm convinced my approach here is far superior in bet sizing. Your 1 unit bets should have 2ish unit swings. Meaning the difference between a W and a L should be about 2 units. So.........a 1 unit pk'm bet is 1 unit..........but want to bet 1 unit on a +200 dog? Then bet .67 to win 1.33. Want 1 unit on a -150 fav? RISK 1.2 to make .8. The result of this bet sizing is that you have the same amount 'at risk' in the outcome in all cases...........namely you cash a 2.0 unit ticket if it wins.

What do you do for -200 faves and above?

That's not the way I thought Fezzik intended, but I still feel the norm is to size by units to win. It was just brought up to me that the defaults at online books also do it by win -- you put in your win amount and the wager size is adjusted around it.

This is very enlightening for me. Many thanks. Here is a specific example. Right now at Bookmaker the Wash. Nats are -172 for their game tonight against Houston. Lets say my unit is $100. Should I bet $172 to win $100 or bet $100 to win $58. (Forget for the moment the wisdom of betting -172 favs.) I always thought the norm was to bet to win your unit, in this case betting $172 to win $100. But there seems to be some difference of opinion some of you. Any further thoughts? Thanks.

So conventional wisdom would be to bet $172 to win $100, but what Fezz is saying below is to bet ~$126 to win ~$74.