Someone please call Andy Iskoe and explain Run Line Betting For the last 20 years in Las Vegas Andy has written the same article, saying basically look to lay -1.5 runs on large favorites, instead of large vig, since the only time this comes into play is when the favorite wins by exactly 1, and this is a 'rare' occurance, 70% of games he says are won by more than 1.
He then concludes "Enough Of The math".....without doing any of the math. He appears unaware the adjustment of mL to rline is done correctly by the books, and in fact, Vegas books actually STICK it to the squares often charging too much for the -1.5 side (of course they also often stick it to them charging too much for the ML)
THE RIGHT WAY to do this study is
1a. Run a database assuming you lay -1.5 runs on every favorite
a) Of -150 to -180
b) -180 to -220
c) -220 and higher
1b. Redo the analysis laying the vig and risking on average the same amount of money*
I am certain the results will say
a) You get your butt kicked either way
b) You realy get your butt kicked laying -1.5 in situation a) because you donk away the low dime lime house vig, and get creamed with the 20 cent line of the run line. So the runline here is especially bad, in spots b and c it just is equally bad to the ML.
*Note......-1.5 -110 may well lose less than -185 on some home favorites if you assume that you are betting to win 1 unit, simply because even though the house vig is higher on the runline, the amount wagered is much higher on the mL.
Bottom line. I'm sure Andy is trying to be helpful and believe what he writes but this article has to go.
