Someone please call Andy Iskoe and explain Run Line Betting

WHOA!! +123/-137 runline split??? Dimelines are very common on sides, but runlines are almost universal 20 cents. I believe part of the reason the runline is looking so good is that you have in your data runlines at reduced vig, correct? Of course, that is going to change everything, as now the ML is going to often be the 20 cent line, and the runline the 10-14 cent line.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;24375]Dimelines are very common on sides, but runlines are almost universal 20 cents. I believe part of the reason the runline is looking so good is that you have in your data runlines at reduced vig, correct? Of course, that is going to change everything, as now the ML is going to often be the 20 cent line, and the runline the 10-14 cent line.[/QUOTE] My instincts tell me something ain't right with those results. I just can't imagine squares pounding the runline and coming out ahead. It just doesn't make sense.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;24375]Dimelines are very common on sides, but runlines are almost universal 20 cents. I believe part of the reason the runline is looking so good is that you have in your data runlines at reduced vig, correct? Of course, that is going to change everything, as now the ML is going to often be the 20 cent line, and the runline the 10-14 cent line.[/QUOTE] In reality, both are available for much less. Pinny deals 10 cent RL. Match deals 1 cent ML, close to that on RL. I do realize for your original post you were talking about Iskoes square readers betting at one book, so point taken. But we are burying the lead story here if the data isn't messed up... The no vig bias towards runline favorites. I kind of lean with Climate in thinking someone would have unearthed this before now if true.. but you never know.

Some run-line data -- without the run-lines These are for the HOME team only. The six columns are: Line, number of wins, number of losses, number of wins that were by one run, the overall winning percentage, the percentage of the games that were one run wins by the favorite and the last column is the percentage of the wins that were by a single run. At first glance, it looks to ME like the percentage of the time that a home favorite wins by a lone run is a surprisingly small function of the line. Line #W #L #1-RunW Win % 1run% %W1run -110 334 294 105 53.2 16.7 31.4 -115 364 314 110 53.7 16.2 30.2 -120 401 368 121 52.1 15.7 30.2 -125 380 285 122 57.1 18.3 32.1 -130 430 338 155 56.0 20.2 36.0 -135 390 313 118 55.5 16.8 30.3 -140 420 290 134 59.2 18.9 31.9 -145 367 297 123 55.3 18.5 33.5 -150 286 218 79 56.7 15.7 27.6 -155 360 218 99 62.3 17.1 27.5 -160 281 195 81 59.0 17.0 28.8 -165 285 157 92 64.5 20.8 32.3 -170 263 182 76 59.1 17.1 28.9 -175 208 115 57 64.4 17.6 27.4 -180 165 93 45 64.0 17.4 27.3 -185 91 41 29 68.9 22.0 31.9 -190 174 88 53 66.4 20.2 30.5 -200 226 122 60 64.9 17.2 26.5 Any thoughts? Any things to exploit? Prof Meyer

Table I apologize for the ugly table format. It looked good in the preview. Prof M.

You want to link to a table or spreadsheet. That'll do it.

[url]https://docs.google.com[/url]

Link to the Table I hope this works... [url]https://docs.google.com/document/edit?id=1-9z_UvbkMhB5T1o9gaOJKAc2nSscpnY0Ex2mvXPxu5c&hl=en&authkey=CJ-6tOsF[/url]