Team totals ?

Team totals ? Does anyone know how much a half a run is worth on team totals on the #'s '4' and '5'? my guess is around 40 cents but i'd appreciate some input from the sharp math guys

I'll take a first shot at this... Let me know if this analysis seems sound -- and how to improve it. To estimate when a team might be expected to score 4 runs, I put the total between 7 and 8 and made the team the favorite with this SDQL text: 7 4 7

I bet team totals every day at a few offshore books. I asked Fez what I should use for baseball 5 inning lines about 6 years ago and I recall I used 28 cents for on/off 5 as a total. From there I somehow got to 35 cents for on/off 4 for 5 inning lines. Not sure I recall what I did when I started on team totals but coincidentally I do use 32 cents as my value on/off a team total of 4. I have no database but somehow went through some rough calcuations using on/off for overall totals, 5 inning totals and deducing something. Geez, I'd really find it interesting if you did a similar analysis for on/off 5. I use 25 cents for this value. You will run into 3's and 6's in this as well vs. top pitchers, low scoring parks, high scoring parks, etc. I use 35 cents for a 3 and for 6 I use 20 cents. I pass these bets for small advantages unless I get Under 5 on a game lined at 4.5 for a small edge. A few times per year there are obvious scalps at A rated books vs. Pinnacle on these plays. But there are generally a few good plays per day. Be wary of small edges vs. Greek and Bet Cris UNLESS IRONICALLY you have the opportunity to bet a common number against those books that is an edge to Pinnacle. The Greek will periodically deal way off numbers on Yankees team totals vs. other books. They also deal quite often a half run different than Pinnacle forcing you to make an adjustment calculation. The small edges that result require some judgment but a few are really good.

Off of five? If someone can give me line and total ranges that would have a team total of a solid 5, I would be happy to do this. I assume that a pickem game with a total of ten would have team totals of five, but what would the line have to be on a favorite with a total of 9.5 flat to have a team total of five. Should I just do favorites with a total from 9 to 10?? Sorry to have to ask, but I'm completely unfamiliar with team total betting in baseball. Prof M.

Hope this is helpful. Obviously if both teams are -105, then the team totals for both should be 5 if the game total is 10, but if the favorite is -xxx to -xxx, then the corresponding team totals should be 6 and 4. Similarly, from -xxx to -xxx the team totals should be 7 and 3. Does this make sense? I don't know what those lines would be, but if there is a way to figure it out, then you can find discrepancies when comparing team totals with game totals, when factoring in the line. Three dimensions here: team total, game total and line.

i respect all of your answers and appreciate them as well but wow 32 cents feels short to me. The '7' for full games is worth at least 30 cents based on what pinnacle lets you buy and sell for. It would just seem that the mere fact that you are dealing with smaller #'s that the value would have to be higher since there are very few #'s to land on. Also scoring is way down this year which would lead me to believe these #'s are more precious

MLB data from 2004 I should have mentioned in my first post in this thread that the data used i the analysis are from 2004 to the present. The observation that this season has had much lower scoring games is clearly a key point. Also, when the line move is "worth" 30 cents, the book has to charge you more for it in order for them to make a profit. I would imagine that if the line move -- ON THE AVERAGE -- is worth 30 cents, the book will charge at least 40 cents for it because there will be games in which the line move is worth more than 30 cents and the book needs a "buffer" to account for all the sharp players -- like those posting in this thread. My first analysis of the value of a half-run around a team total of four was supposed to be a very crude one. I just took a wild guess at the line and total ranges that would produce a team total of 4. I expected some guidance from the group as far as which lines will produce a team total of a flat four, and I would use these to fine-tune the analysis to get a better number. Maybe we can look at the line move off of 3 in the NFL as a baseline for this discussion. That is something I feel more comfortable with and I'm also confident that sharp bettors already have a very good idea of what this move is worth. And whatever the average value of this line move is, I'm confident that the books charge more to get the extra half-point. Prof Meyer

Moving a team total off four is definitely not worth 40 cents. I did an estimate a few years ago and came up with 31 cents. If anything I think that may be a few pennies low, but I know I'm not a dime low.