Tigers at Yanks - Game 1

Tigers at Yanks - Game 1 I've made two wagers on this game. [B]Tigers +122 (list pitchers) Tigers/Yanks Under 8 -115[/B]. Both teams struggling to hit. Yanks have not much turnaround time to prepare for this game. I'll take a shot that the Tigers are more emotionally ready to take on a team that just finished a major victory yesterday. The total should close at 7.5 so I'll lay a little juice to get it now. I think I've got a great shot to win at least one of these and will not be surprised at all to get them both. If the Tigers win today I'll probably play the Yanks to win the series at the adjusted price tomorrow with a very much better number. If the Yanks win I'll wait to see if something comes up later in the series. Good luck to all.

Good if/then analysis. I was at Game 5. Fielder was lost at the plate, and although Jarrod Parker is a talent, he isn't that good. Tigers got their runs stringing hits together and taking advantage of bad fielding. Also, the Tigers bullpen is fully rested. Verlander pitched the whole game, and as you mentioned, they have the extra day off. I think your analysis is dead on.

Thanks for the idea. I just had Tigers runline had to totally agree with this analysis unfortunate about the total loss. I didn't watch one pitch. I read Tim you like the Yankees rest of series, I would be interested in challenging that and wouldn't you expect the value will continue to be on the Tigers? Last night I played +1.5-166 just had to be too low and there was a late move at the sharp books making it a good bet. Sanchez vs. Kuroda tonight from what I've heard Sanchez has pitched well since getting over to Detroit. Didn't I see Jeter out for the series? It is baseball and the Yankees certainly have enough pitching and other veteran hitters to put together a victory even in the series but it seems Detroit has the better starting pitching, the potent middle hitters, enough experience that they're the better team. I notice the lowest runline on the dog is at Pinnacle and the sharp books. It just seems surprising to me. I just expect that has to go up. To me the Tigers could be +1.5-200 in this game. Is Huroki that strong now that he should even be favoured to this extent in this game? I played the Tigers +1.5-165 at Matchbook and left some there at that price for another bet. I can't believe I can't scalp that at game time. I'm not following this closely so if I'm way off let me know.

I like Yankees +182. If the Yankees win Game 2, the Tigers could be down to -150. The value of one player going down (even Jeter) is not a big deal, and it is easy to see an overreaction, and thus value.

I just don't see the Yankees ever being undervalued in too many series---or after a series has started. The Yankees just get so much support of small bettors. It is the main public team in the sport obviously so I don't like the play on any value basis. Obviously if you like the Yankees to win this series sure that is a different approach. I have no opinion on it really. Well I guess I do----but just what the probability should be----I don't have any opinion really on which one will win myself. I do disagree about Jeter. What would they be favoured in this game if he was playing? -160 instead of -140? Either way it is a ridiculously high price---IMO. Now if the Yankees lose they have Verlander in Game 3 so it is not a good spot to lose I will say that. I wouldn't want to lay -140 on this. My understanding is that Kuroda will be pitching on 3 days rest for the first time in his career. Some pitchers do well in that situation and obviously others don't. I also now recognize after reading a summary the Tigers have some issues in their bullpen with Valverde. I do like Kuroda although I know he got rolled in his LCS start a few years ago with the Dodgers. Basically the overview is the Yankees are without Jeter, AROD is in a disastrous slump and Teixeira last I read had a bad groin but stole a base in the last series but I never hear about him and Kuroda is going on 3 days rest. I guess Ibanez can hit home runs every night to make up for this. I do agree for sure the Yankees have lots of weapons and can get this done. I also think the Tigers have a lot of weapons and can get this done. The value is that without Jeter the line "should" be -160 I guess. I will play back on the Yankees if the market doesn't agree with my bet. If Pinnacle leaves this at +1.5-160 or +135 ML I'll be stunned.

Im showing Det -550 now for the Series. Any thoughts?? Sure seems like Verlander twice, no Jeter and up 2-0 going home this should be even more??

on a conference call. will reply today.....

Not any time today. In conferences all day. I had not logged back into LVA since I posted this Saturday.... I should have because of what I later discussed with Eric Strasser (Palm Tree). He pointed out to me to "be careful". If Detroit wins game one they still have Verlander available to pitch twice, if needed... That reminder made me rethink what I was going to do. So, I have not dialed back and played the Yanks on a series price and now that they are down two games I have no plans to. I'll play individual games when appropriate.... At this point you have to think that Detroit is sitting in the drivers seat. Any wager on the pin stripes to win the series would be gutsy... My two cents.

Yankees Game 3 I did bet the Yankees tonight on the runline at +1.5-125. It is around at a few offshore books like Bodog and SIA. If one had a square Bodog account this game is +1.5-120. +1.5-130 is around a little as well. I don't know about the handicapping to it but I have to admit after saying the Yankees are the public team this might be the game that they're not the public team. With Verlander pitching and without Jeter and now losing 2-0 I'll put out that there may be a little value on the Yankees tonight. Having these premium numbers on it will make it more certain I end up with some value. I'm 2-0 in the series thanks to this thread I'll keep my risk to 1 unit so I can keep a unit if this loses.