Two MLB plays from Prof Meyer (9/9)

Two MLB plays from Prof Meyer (9/9) All records and stats below can be verified using the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL). [B]HOUSTON +120 over LA Dodgers[/B] – Since June first, the Astros have a record of 49-38 and the Dodgers have a record of 40-49. Since June first, the Astros have produced a net profit of 24.3 net games – by far the best in the league. Nonetheless, they are a significant home dog here. The Dodgers have lost five straight. In their last four, they never held the lead and they scored a total of three runs in the four games. Yesterday, they managed a total of three hits vs a guy making his second start in the majors and four relievers. LA is not a good investment in this spot. The Dodgers are 0-7 since June when they are off a multiple run loss in which they had six or fewer hits and 0-10 as a road FAVORITE of less than 150 when they are off a loss in which they had six or fewer hits. The Astros do not give in to a struggling team. Houston is a relentless 8-0 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games. Also, the Astros are a perfect 8-0 as a home DOG after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks. In their last three in this spot they won 3-1 over Carlos Zambrano, 8-1 over Randy Wells and 3-0 over Chris Carpenter. With the Dodgers 0-8 on the road when they are off a 3-plus runs loss in which they used at least five pitchers, it’s hard to believe that the Astros aren’t at least a coin toss to win here. We’ll take the underdog. MTi’s FORECAST: HOUSTON 3 LA Dodgers 1 ************* [B]ATLANTA +100 over St Louis[/B] – The last time the Braves faced Wainwright (4/29), Jair Jurrjens was on the hill and it didn’t turn out well for them. St Louis won 10-4 as a 185 home favorite. Things have changed tremendously since late April and this line does not reflect it. Adam Wainwright is 8-11 vs a team beat the last time he faced them – and the Cards were an average of minus 182 in these 19 games. Ouch. Jurrjens, on the other hand, is 6-0 when he starts at home seeking revenge for a team loss the last time he started vs this opponent, allowing a total of eight runs in the six starts. The Braves have been terrific at home this season and Jair Jurrjens has been the main contributor as a starting pitcher. Atlanta is a perfect 8-0 when Jurrjens starts at home this season, winning by an average final score of 5.2 to 1.8 runs. As a team, the Cardinals are 0-5 recently as a road favorite when they won the last time they faced their opponent’s starting pitcher. In their last four in this spot, they never even held the lead. In Jurrjens’ last two starts, the Braves won 9-3 over the Mets and 2-0 over the Marlins and Josh Johnson in Florida. Atlanta is SO tough at home when their starter is winning. The Braves are 16-1 at home when they won their starter’s last two starts and their last eight in this situation were wins by scores of: 4-1, 4-1, 8-3, 3-0, 1-0, 13-1, 3-2 and 9-2. How’s that for quality pitching? Jair Jurrjens produced three of the sixteen win in this spot, winning by final scores of 2-1, 4-1 and 13-1. How can the Braves be a home dog here when Wainwright is struggling so much? Finally, the Braves hammered the Pirates 9-3 yesterday and they simply build off of these types of wins. Atlanta is 14-0 when they are at home off a win as a favorite in which they scored at least six runs and 9-0 in the first game of a home series vs an NL foe when they are off a win. Wainwright has had three straight non-quality starts against the Pirates, Nationals and Reds, respectively. Why is he getting so much respect here? Why aren’t the Braves -140? MTi’s FORECAST: ATLANTA 6 St Louis 2 Good Luck to all. Thanks for Reading. Comments welcome.