World Series 2011

World Series 2011 I am in the minority by all I've read and listened to this past few days, but I think the WS will be slightly lower scoring than people think. These starting staff are much better than they have shown in this post season. We have some pretty darn good hitters on each squad, both coming off big series wins but I'm going to think "low" the first couple games. Larussa will use his pen at fist sign of troube but I hope we can get some "quality" time out of each starter the first two games before we get into the pens. Added info is the weather looks cold and windy tonight. Wind chill will be in the 30's. I get conflicting reports, one saying blowing in, the other saying going left to right. Either way, that helps. Tomorrow, small breeze with a low of 35. We have two good umps. Layne goes tonight who's zone is fair, doesn't tend to squeeze the plate. Tomorrow it is Gibson who has one of the widest zones of all. He's something like 21 unders out of 30 games this year. I think both managers play it close to the vest tonight trying to play it one run at a time. Both aces go tonight. The Cards best chance is with Carpenter. He's the best on both teams and my angle will rely on the Cards getting the win tonight. Tomorrow, Garcia and Wilson get the starts. Here, at least Garcia pitches much better at home. I'll beg off the side but will hope the weather and ump help this game stay low. What I did: Monday I bet the Cards to win the series at +145. Today I played: Cards to win game one at -121. Cards game 1 Under 7.5 at +106 Cards game 2 Under 8 at -105. The key to this bet is getting the Cards in with the win, regardless of the score in game one. That way we have one winner and I'll scalp the series price by taking Texas to win the series which I'll guess will be around even money or better. At that point it will be about picking my spots, if any, in the remaining games. Worst case for these bets and angle is that Texas wins game one. Then, I'm holding a ticket that may be headed for the bottom of the bird cage. But, life is a gamble anyway.

Not sure if this helps at all but you can bet that Texas wins GM 1 and loses the series for +620 Bet that they win game 1 and win the series for +160. These were at Bookmaker. Not sure if you could work in any slight hedge bets.

Sounds good. I see you mixed up the pitchers for Texas though. It is Wilson tonight and Lewis tomorrow night. Good luck!!!

Looks like you will not be visiting any bird cages! Great calls all around so far. Rudy

John, you are right. thanks. I did mix them up...oops. Rudy, thanks. I went ahead and scalped the series price. I took Texas at +125 to go with the Cards +140. I've got the under going tonight and so far that's all I'll do. If I get that win tonight I may sit on the sidelines the rest of the way. I'll post anything if I do make another wager.

Thanks for picks. Cool:cool:

Sometimes you make a wager "just because"... That's pretty much what I am doing here. I'm on Texas tonight. The data and numbers conflict. There isn't a clear cut choice for me. I can't believe I'd bet against Carpenter as a dog but I am compelled to do it. I'm not going to use the "Rangers need it more" argument. That has never made sense to me. I just think this is the night Texas gets to Carpenter and the Cards staff for enough runs to win this game. C.J. Wilson has been horrible in this post season with an ERA over seven. But, I think tonight he gets the good Karma and pitches well. I don't like the total. I won't touch an "8" under in this park. It's over or nuthun but I am not comfortable there. I like Texas. Call it a gut feeling. It's time Carpenter feels the heat from the Rangers lumber. [B]960 Texas ML -121 [/B](WA). Good luck.

Nice call Tim!

Thanks Tim. :cool:

Cool, I appreciate you reading and replying. I've got to go with the under in this game. [B]Weather[/B]: I've checked numerous sites. Consensous is: In from left and left-to-right, temps in the high 40's and then dropping, wind chill eventually in the high 30's, winds 10-20. We will see a lot of rain early, 50% at night. [B]Pitchers[/B]: Lewis vs Garcia: A rematch of game 2. I hope for something similar. It's good Garcia is throwing at home. He's been so much better there than on the road. Neither pitcher is a big fly ball guy, Lewis does throw more flyers than grounders. Garcia much more of a ground ball producer. [B]Trends[/B]: This series has played under in 4 of 5. Managers are playing for one run with steals and sac bunts. As Earl Weaver used to say: "You play for one run, you get one run". This should help keep the score down. Both teams overall are not hitting or getting the big rally induced hits that send games flying over. [B]Umpire[/B]: We have a good one. Gary Cederstrom: 21 of 33 have played under. His average score is 7.34, strike outs at 14.6 per game. [B]Intangibles[/B]: If there are rain delays I'm confident both managers throw the entire bullpen out there to win this game. The Cards led the league in grounding in to double plays. Major rally killer!!! I'm feeling good about this game staying under the total. Let's hope the pitchers continue to play well and pitch out of trouble. [B]962 Rangers/Cards under 7.5 [/B](-122) 5Dimes (reduced juice). Good luck to all. This may be the last baseball game until April 2012.