189) Idaho ? this move is weird

189) Idaho ? this move is weird This move is insane.... Idaho outgained by the following (excluding the game vs the powerhouse of North Dakota): -198 -230 -330 -200 -62 New Mex St new QB running the option has done quite well last 2 games since he stepped in and they have a bye week. This makes zero sense. Opinions?

Dont know these teams but hope it goes ala Northwestern/Illini did for us after a move against us.

I know New Mexico St. is better than usual and Idaho sucks. But that doesn't help. The Phill Steele power ratings for free on his web page have New Mexico St. as 1 pt superior and you have NMS at home so I would think a power rating might have them as a 3.5 pt favourite. I realize Phil has 9 sets of power ratings he uses to assist him in predicting these games incorrectly and this is just one set that he doesn't even use to make selections so it is only an attempt by me to put a bracket on what a game spread might be and I've seen the market different by up to 7 pts from it with no problem. But that is a small minority of the games. The game also opened at 3.5 at Pinnacle so it seems reasonable to me that people who use power ratings, stat analysis etc. might come up with some value at -2.5. This analysis should adjust for strength of schedule as I'm pretty sure Idaho has had a tougher schedule but should be in those numbers above. Your YPG analysis someone like Dr. Bob will adjust for the strength of the opposition etc. and see if Idaho really is this bad defensively apparently. Perhaps a more detailed analysis will reveal something. If not that obviously the play looks stronger for you but with this type of money on Idaho clearly they smell the upset coming if you can call it that. Must be some other factor that they thnk matters here. A situation, an emotional factor in the game, a style of the teams that isn't reflected within season stats. And of course my favourite but I have no idea here OL issues that are a weakness against another team's strength defensively disrupting an offense. Of course an injury here would be critical. The reality is you may find out you want off your play. However, you also may find out this should be a 2% play. Good luck either way.

I think there may be misperceptions about these teams based on strength of schedules. Idaho not so bad against the run and coming off a horrible offensive performance (I expect major improvement this week). NMSU has given up some big numbers defensively to a pretty poor schedule of teams. I think all but one of their opponents have had their best (or second best) offensive output against NMSU. I think this move is very sharp. Guess we'll find out Saturday.

[QUOTE=junkie;47112] I think this move is very sharp. Guess we'll find out Saturday.[/QUOTE] I know the move is sharp, I just do not understand it. But then again I am extremely square.

Idaho is 1.25 better. Toss in home, which can vary, the line oughta be between where it opened and where it is. But please bear in mind that I am 'the betting public'

After adjusting for strength of schedule NM State is clearly better problem is how much of preseason ratings/expectations/regression is this group weighting in. A lot of these early week moves have come storming back later in the week but this could also just be a case of fuck it lets take the 3 now and figure out what to do with it later since there is no one that is going to lay 3 with NM State. Low risk high reward situation. Ill take the -1.5 in this case and over the long run know this a profitable play based on my numbers.

My favorite stat in this game is The Spuds avg 69 yards rushing per game. Also

[QUOTE=TheDude;47113]I know the move is sharp, I just do not understand it. But then again I am extremely square.[/QUOTE] Poor choice of phrases on my part, as it is obviously sharp given the line movement. What I really meant to say that this move is a correction of a bad line in my opinion. And, for the sake of clarification, there is nobody on this board more square than I am (so my opinions need to be taken in that light).

Dr. Bob 's analysis is complete and he would have NM St. favoured by at least 7 pts in this game which is more than even the rudimentary power ratings I looked at from Phil Steele. He actually has NM St. as one of his more significant best bets for this weekend. His only explanation was that NM St. has not converted more red zone opportunities this year as to why the line is depressed. So it stood up to this analysis which covered some of the issue I was referring to in my earlier post. The issue remains though that despite his release the game remains a PK essentially. Perhaps there will be a move up on it before kick-off. NM St. D isn't that bad according to the doctor's analysis only slightly below average. Junkie's got a comment that he expects improvements in Idaho's O which has been significantly below average this year. Perhaps there is something to that issue and Idaho won't be as bad in this game. I'm down on it now myself. I would like to see this tick upwards that is for sure.