BCS Nat Championship: Auburn vs Fla St 269 Auburn 67.5
270 Flor St. -10
This line opened 9.5 and then bottomed out at 8 pretty fast before
making a jump up to 10 yesterday. Lot's of 10.5 now available with
the bulk of that being offshore. LV will catch up today but this game
most likely settles at 10.
Florida St destroyed everyone in their path with one minor exception,
the 1H vs Boston College. In the end they blew by them and won rather
easily by 14. Every team is entitled to a hiccup during the regular season
and if theirs is merely that they didn't have the game tucked away by
halftime, then that's a pretty high bar to exceed each and every game.
Auburn has caught a lot of breaks to put it mildly. The Georgia suck-out,
the Iron Bowl finish and then elsewhere with Ohio St failing late to put
them in the title game. While Auburn has been sweating every outcome,
Florida St has been on cruise-control and that is the interesting aspect
of this game. Can Auburn push the game to a place the Seminoles have
not been yet and put them to the test late?
There will be plenty of props available for this game, even in Las Vegas,
as the BCS Title game is a mini Super Bowl for betting that comes and
goes all in one day. All the main players will get lined so I'll list my
numbers for the primary offensive players and wait and see what they put up.
One thing about the college title game that often differs from the Super
Bowl is the length of play for some of the stars. Florida St is a great
example of this as many of their games were clearly decided by halftime.
The stats you see for them were compiled in portions of a game sometimes
so, although the opposition is going to be superior to what they saw in
many of those games, the snaps will be greater as well. That can make it
tough to make numbers for some but also can present some whopper
Under bets vs players that show decent stats but were mostly in action
after the game was decided.
Auburn:
QB Marshall 12comps/20att/150.5yds pass/TDB4INT -200
Rushing - 15att/77.5yds/TDY -180
RB Mason 28att/120.5yds/TDY -300 / 10 rec yds
RB Grant 5att/30.5yds
WR Coates 3.5UN receps/58yds/TDY +175
WR Louis 2.0UN receps/20.5yds/TDY +500
Florida St:
QB Winston 21.5comps/33att/301yds/3TDs/TDB4INT-245/INTYes -150
Rushing 6att/10yds
RB Freeman 15att/72yds/TDY -230 / 1rec/11.5 yds
RB Williams 6 att/43yds/TDY+115
WR Greer 5receps/65.5yds/TDY +120
WR Benjamin 4.5receps/80yds/TDY -170/long 28.5
WR Shaw 4receps/65yds/TDY +160
TE O'Leary 3UNreceps/46.5yds/TDY +200/long 20
Both Kickers are decent but Fla Sts Aguayo has the
greater range. He is 8/9 from 40 or more and although
I give him the edge on longest FG it's probably not
big enough to merit a bet, especially if Fla St is the fave.
Do like OV 2.5 FGs if they put that up. Both teams play
good red zone D and have strong 3rd down conv numbers
which should lead to some attempts. Also, first score is
a FG +250 or more would be tempting. Have no idea
what they will put up so will have to wait and see the number.
As pointed out, the blowout nature of the Fla St games resulted
in some tough situations when making lines. The Seminoles
allowed 5 rush TDs all season and take on a team that just
put up 545 yds rushing and 7 rush TDs in their last game!
Trying to make lines with conflicting stats like that is challenging.
Auburn is not going to change who they are so the lean has
to go their way on that one. Winstons stats were also tough
to extrapolate. Real good chance he has to perform start to
finish here so leaned to the high side for him. I do think they
will put too low a number on Winston to throw an INT and I'll
be on that at -135 or less.
On the side, a couple things lead me to making a small bet on
Auburn +10.5. Fla St faced the #90 schedule (after the fact)
in FBS. Auburn faced the #21 schedule. I do believe Auburn
has gotten better as the season progressed and are going to
be able to put points up. Outside of the 34 that BC scored on
Fla St, no team has exceeded 17 vs them. Auburn will and
if they can get this to the 4th Q within a score then things
will get interesting. Would like to see the Seminoles in a
competitive game late. Edge to Auburn at that point who
will be the one with all the positive experience and confidence.
