Bluehorseshoe 2012 NCAA Football Plays

307 Indiana -13.5 UMass will probably have its share of struggles this year as they are new to the MAC and FBS. As it is this is a team that had its share of struggles at the FCS level winning 5,6, and 5 games in each of the last three years. A first year coach with a couple of freshman QB's and an offense that really did nothing against UConn, I do think they will still struggle to score against Indiana. Even as Indiana has had there own problems, they are still in the big 10 and should have significant advantages in athleticism. Indian's largest deficiencies were mostly on the defensive side of the ball last year and I think the offense will be better this year with a more experienced QB. I do not see the defense giving up enough to UMass for UMass to stay within the 13.5

327 Georgia -2

302 Cincy -5 Obviously missed the good numbers but I am going to take a flyer on the -5 as it could climb to 6. I fully expect Pitt to be much better than they showed on their opener although their defense does have its share of issues. Pitt with a first year coach and now going on the road after a tough loss; it will be interesting to see how they respond. The Pitt RB still probably going to need some time before he gets back to where he was before the injury.. Cincy lost its share of play makers last year and are fairly young, but they do have an athlete at the QB position that has seen action and should be familiar with the system. Cincy coach seems to have this program going in the right direction and they are probably getting Pitt at a great time. Probably advantage Pitt having the one game versus this being the Bear Cats opener, but I think once the offense gets going we could see quite a few points from Cincinnati. After the way the Pitt offense seemed to sputter last week I like the chances of Cincy winning by a full TD.

[QUOTE=bluehorseshoe;53509]302 Cincy -5 Obviously missed the good numbers but I am going to take a flyer on the -5 as it could climb to 6. I fully expect Pitt to be much better than they showed on their opener although their defense does have its share of issues. Pitt with a first year coach and now going on the road after a tough loss; it will be interesting to see how they respond. The Pitt RB still probably going to need some time before he gets back to where he was before the injury.. Cincy lost its share of play makers last year and are fairly young, but they do have an athlete at the QB position that has seen action and should be familiar with the system. Cincy coach seems to have this program going in the right direction and they are probably getting Pitt at a great time. Probably advantage Pitt having the one game versus this being the Bear Cats opener, but I think once the offense gets going we could see quite a few points from Cincinnati. After the way the Pitt offense seemed to sputter last week I like the chances of Cincy winning by a full TD.[/QUOTE] This line climbed to -6 but has since come back. It seems as though the Pitt coach has lifted some suspensions on Pitt players. Two significant players on the defense line will be available to Pitt that did not play last week. As it is I had their status as uncertain anyway. If this line continues down under -4 I will probably hit it again.

Thanks, nice call

Great analysis BHS. Keep up the good work.

Ok so to recap what I have so far tomorrow..... 305 Penn St +8.5, +10 I took the +8.5 early and it cost me as I have also played the 10. Still at +10, I really do not think we see a better number. I do think Penn St played well against an under-rated Ohio team. With all the attention Penn St has gotten and the players leaving I wanted to get a visual on them before I had placed any bets on or against them. The game against Ohio really came down to just a handful of plays that did not go Penn St way and then Penn St just gave the ball away. I felt the game was closer than the score would indicate and for me that is always a sign to look at the losing team for their next game. I am not a big believer in the Penn St QB, but he appears to be the best option at this point. Hopefully he can complete a higher percentage and cut down the picks, otherwise this may get out of hand. Virginia did handle a Richmond team as they were supposed to, but really Richmond is a team in a downward spiral with a first year coach and no real QB. They had lost 8 straight dating back to last year in the CAA. Virginia was just too big on both sides of the lines for Richmond to really do anything, I am not taking too much from Virginia winning 43-19. They did do what they were supposed to, and do have a good backfield with Rocco and a nice group of RB's. Penn St appears that it will also be short a RB, but I am not too sure he is that much of an upgrade of who he was in front of. Defensively I am counting on Penn St to be able to keep them in the game long enough for its offense to put together some points. I think the Penn St coach will be able to put a plan together for them to stay in this game. This could be an uphill battle for Penn St, but I am just not yet a believer that this Virginia team should be more than a 7 point favorite here. 315 UCF +17 Obviously not much to take from either teams first week victory's. Akron is bad. Miami OH does have a decent passing attack, and I thought they closed out the first half against Ohio St with a lot of missed opportunities down 21-3 at that point I believe. Third quarter things did get out of hand in that game and Miami OH had no chance to get any type of rushing attack against that defense and conversely could not stop the run. I just think this is way too many points in this game and surprised that this has even moved up, but really what does it take for -17 to go to -18 or -18.5 as I am not sure those numbers matter that much. Now UCF will be down it's best RB and it looks as though it could rain. I think we see a ball control offense mixed in with high percentage pass plays for O'Leary's team to keep this close. The UCF QB has shown the ability to make good decisions and be accurate in his time as a starter. On the other side I will be interested to see how the Ohio St QB handles an actual defense; much has been made so far about how good he is and how much he has improved. But this was a QB that really struggled in the passing game a year ago. Another thing about O'Leary teams is that they do not seem to get blown out that often, he is usually just good at losing the close games or collapsing in the fourth quarter. I do not have any stats for that. UCF has some talented players with a defense that I think will be able to stay with most of Ohio St's play makers. No doubt a tough trip for UCF, just not ready to think Ohio St is going to be able to walk through this opponent and they could get smacked early. 323 Toledo +2 Probably should have waited here, with the +2 quickly going to +3. The Toledo coach has made this 2 QB system work for the most part; keeping the guy with the "hot hand" in the later part of the game. Toledo will be thinking they really should have/could have won at Arizona and they stayed in the game in spite of being 0-8 on 3rd down conversions in the second half. Wyoming on the other hand was also very poor on third down conversions playing a good Texas team. Wyoming it seems has been the "hot" pick recently, but I think more so as an underdog. I think they will have their hands full against a Toledo team that has shown the ability to score points, although Toledo is probably not as good as they were last year. This was a team that did go into Ohio St in the second week and almost knock off the buckeys. I like them to win here. Wyoming very young in the backfield and I do not see them having enough offense yet. 337 USF PK Nevada looked good last week, but really I think they played a CAL team that I feel is going to struggle this year with no great option at QB. Nevada a team that has been really improving the last few years and they seem to have another good QB in place in the sophomore. It seems you never know what you may get with the USF QB, and I guess USF will be missing a 2nd string RB. USF defense I think will be able to contain Nevada a bit, and get off the field on 3rd down as they did last week. A long trip for the USF team and I have been surprised at the non existent line movement here. The fact that this has stayed really where it is makes me favor the road team here. 366 SD St -4.5 At least I got the right side here, now at mostly -6.5. I think this SD St team played very well at Washington and think that they could surprise some teams in the MWC. Army no real measuring stick yet, but they do return most of their rushing attack. Army was bad on defense last year and are usually undersized on that side of the ball. These two teams did play last year and SD only won by 3. SD St will go into this home opener with a game under their belts and Army may still need some tuning to that rushing attack. 372 Nwestern +3 Have to figure both teams getting much attention after their first game but I really like the home team getting points here. Vanderbilt perceived to have played a tough opponent at home in SC, and they did play well but I am not sure how good this team is. Before winning 6 games last year Vandy had won 2 games each of the previous 2 years. This is also a team that has won 3 road games since 2009. Not really sure what the QB situation is with Western as during their last game they reported Colter was not taken out due to injury but I have to believe that played a part. As it is fitzgerald seems to have confidence in the backup Siemian and he showed why against Syracuse. Surely Colter will start and play the majority of the snaps. It seems much has been made about the small N'Westerns DBs, but I like a fitzgerald coach team getting points at home. 386 Ark St -21 Now mostly -23, I love what Arkansas St did against Oregon. I realize that Oregon had largely put on the brakes and took out many starters but this Arkansas St team was down 50-3 in the second quarter and for any team to come back from that is a positive in my opinion. Arkansas St with many players that could have or were at more note able schools and a good coach in place. Really though Memphis is just really bad. I learned my lesson taking them last week. Memphis has won 5 games since 2009 and they were run off the field by Ark St a year ago. I have no problem with the -23. Good bounce back game for Ark St to make a big statement at home. 390 Alabama -40 This one has come back a bit, -38. I think there is a feeling that this could be a classic "sandwich" game for Bama where we do not see the same intensity. Bama obviously with the high profiled game against Michigan and get to go to Arkansas next week. I just do not see that with this team. Alabama had a similar spot just a year ago playing North Texas in week 3 in between @Penn then Arkansas. I am not going to bother to look up what the spread was in the North Texas game, but it was probably around the same number and Bama won 41-0. There is no more Bobby Rainey for this Hilltoppers team and their offense last year really was the talented RB (I think he is in the NFL). I do not think Western Kentucky scores. I think Alabama really is that good, especially on defense. I think we will see that Michigan is really not as bad as they looked against Bama. I like this being the home opener for Bama, the crowd will be into it and the players should be fired up. 377 Illinois -1 Bad number to get, now at Illinois +4. I guess I will just live with it. This is due to the uncertainty for Illinois at the QB position. N. Scheelhaase injured, I am guessing he is probably a no go. Having said that I think this Illinois defense is good, that was a good offense they faced last week with a solid QB in Carder. I do not really know much about ASU. They destroyed what appears to be a bad NAU team. Big game for 2 new coaches.

continued from previous post........ 327 Georgia -3.5, -2 Currently looks like -1 which makes no sense for the line to favor Georgia more after the announced player suspension. Really it seems there is no official word on it as Richt has not said anything, but AP reporting they are officially out I think because a Georgia player tweeted it. Not sure what we know about Mizz yet, they beat a bad team last week. Same could be said for Georgia I suppose but I would contend that Buffalo is much more talented than Southeastern Louisiana U. Mizz really seemed to get "pushed" around on the line of scrimmage at times from some of the big programs last year and I think Georgia will be able to do that here. I really like the Georgia QB and do not see Mizz matching points with them. 345 Iowa St +4 This was a great game last year and really the break out game for Steele Janzt. I like that this QB has come back to get the starting job and maybe he is a year wiser. Iowa in my opinion might be a little offensively challenged at the moment, but that is just my perception in how they played in week one. I think we see another close game. 347 Washington +23 Now +24. This LSU defense could be really good, although I do not see how they can be as good as they were last year. I am not so sure about their offense yet and wasn't really impressed with their numbers against North Texas. Tough spot for Washington, but I like their QB and coach. I think they find a way to get just enough points, they have a tough stretch coming up in their schedule and it would be good for them to show something in this game. I am sure I may see something else in the morning I like, I may try some in running or 2nd half lines tomorrow as well. I think the record is 12-8 after the win last night, nothing to get too excited about. In the end I am just a recreation player with no real quantifiable edge. As always any thoughts are welcome.

343 East Carolina +21.5 I first saw this line and thought "that's a lot of points for an offense that seemed pretty conservative against Vandy" That is what I said. Looks like Connor Shaw will play, but I just don't see this team blowing teams out right now. Was Vandy's defense really that good to limit a high powered offense to 17 points? My feeling is no. So South Carolina fails to cover and now we are supposed to just think they go out and take out ECU by more than 3 TD's? SC has not really had to rely on Connor Shaw's arm to win games. This team is going to revolve around the RB and the defense. ECU always seems to play the big boys close; I have no stats to back that up. It is my perception that they have a fairly good record ATS against ranked teams in recent years. ECU was up by 10 at the half in this game last year, but did eventually lose by 19.

1315 1h central florida +10 -105