Bluehorseshoe 2012 NCAA Football Plays

104 south Florida -8 Opened at -9.5, now at -8. I imagine that is the best number we will see. Really this is a tough number to lay with USF being on the short week after a long trip to Reno, probably why it has come down with money on the underdog. Also reported today that USF lost one its receivers for the year; USF is young at the receiver position. Against Nevada however the WR's did seem to be fast and athletic and the QB seems to be making good decisions so far. USF was plagued with injuries at WR last year, so many of these younger players have seen significant action. Rutgers has not had any real test yet in Tulane and Howard and I am not sure they are as good as they were a year ago. Rutgers does have much of it's defensive core back but I just think this team is going to struggle to score points especially early in the year. Initially surprised to hear that QB Nova had beat out the more experienced QB Dodd? for the QB position, and really has not been impressive yet. Putting up 24 against Tulane and 26 against Howard was largely due to the Rutgers running game and Rutgers being able to just line up and pound the ball against small and really poor defenses. Tulane's defense was horrific last year and they could be worse this year. Rutgers is going to have to throw the ball much better in this game to keep it close. I do not see them having as much success being one dimensional against USF. Rutgers also dealing with it's share of injuries under first year coach Flood. It sounds as though they will have the services of their injured C, but will be down one offensive and defensive lineman. No doubt this is a tough spot for the home team, but I just see them as a more complete going against a team that may have some offensive troubles this year.
194 Troy +16 I am having second thoughts about my position with Miss St so I am going to play it back. Oh well.
189 Middle Tenn St -3.5
164 Wisconsin -13

I am really considering laying the 45.5 with Michigan, it is just hard for me to even think about giving that many points again. This UMass team just screams to me as a team to continue betting against as the oddsmakers just may not have caught up with as to how bad they really are. Some UMass stats: The team leader in rushing has 20 carries for 32 years, 1.6 YPC. The passing statistics are even worse with the main QB going 27-48 for 207 yards over the first two games, and 56 of those yards came on one play. In the first two games UMass has only scored one TD; and the freshman kicker even missed the extra point. Furthermore the team leader in receptions, (8 receptions 82 yards, yes he is the one who had 56 on one play) is going to be out this game, not sure if that even matters. This is a UMass team that has not been that great at the FCS level in recent years; winning 5,6, and 5 games over the last three years. Now at the FBS level with two freshman QB's this team has just been over matched against two teams in UConn and Indiana that are probably going to have their own struggles this year. No doubt Indiana could have put up more points than they did if the QB had not gotten hurt. I do not see a win on the schedule for UMass at this point and I do think this one will get out of hand early. Michigan players will probably be looking forward to getting an "easier" game after their first two games of the season. The Michigan QB could have a record setting game in this one and I don't think that Michigan gets off the gas too early. Obviously Michigan had a tough opener, but even playing AF last week is not an easy team to prepare for. The players and coaches will be looking for big production from the offense as they tune up for a tough stretch in the schedule. Overall I am not very good at picking these type of games. I really liked the Alabama -40 play last week. I usually try and stay away but not sure I can here. Thoughts?
This is the opportunity Michigan has been waiting for if they want to run up the scoreboard. It's also their last chance to give their backups a lot of playing time. What we learn if their first team underperforms again this week however is how mediocre the team actually is. This game is a benchmark for me, but it's not one I can bet.
My initial impression is it's lot of points for a decent team without an awesome aerial attack or shut down defense.
142 Arkansas +20 So I was hesitant here and it cost me; +21 seems long gone. I am going to grab this now and watch it closely. This really just seems like a big over reaction in the line adjustment. Reading Phil Steele's column today reminded me of the fact that wan't this game just Alabama -6 less than a couple of weeks ago? I think it was. Yes things are different today, and Arkansas probably without their QB. Having said that Alabama -20 points on the road against a solid SEC team just seems like way too many in this young season.
[QUOTE=bluehorseshoe;53655]142 Arkansas +20 So I was hesitant here and it cost me; +21 seems long gone. I am going to grab this now and watch it closely. This really just seems like a big over reaction in the line adjustment. Reading Phil Steele's column today reminded me of the fact that wan't this game just Alabama -6 less than a couple of weeks ago? I think it was. Yes things are different today, and Arkansas probably without their QB. Having said that Alabama -20 points on the road against a solid SEC team just seems like way too many in this young season.[/QUOTE] It was on LVH GOY on 9-2-12 @ Ala -6.5 LK
Update on current record Okay, just to update where I am at as of today. Week 1 was 11-8, then: 305 penn st + 8.5 W 315 ucf + 17 W 323 Toledo +2 W 337 sflorida PK W 366 sd st -4.5 W 372 new stern +3 W 386 ark st -21 L 305 Penn st +10 W 390 Bama - 40 L 377 Illinois -1 L 327 Georgia -3.5 W 345 iowa st +4 W 347 Wash +23 L 307 Indiana -13.5 W 327 Georgia -2 W 302 Cincy -5 W 343 East Carolina +21.5 L 1315 1h central florida +10 -105 W 3315 1Q CENTRAL FLORIDA +3.5 EV L 364 UCLA UNDER 62 L 334 1H SYRACUSE +15 W 1356 1H TEMPLE -5.5 L 356 temple -9.5 L 2H MISSISSIPPI ST Under 23 L 2368 2H CONNECTICUT Under 23 W 2H KANSAS STATE -3 W 2306 2H VIRGINIA Under 23 PUSH 120 wsu -13 L 2333 2H USC Over 27.5 W 2334 2h syracuse +10.5 W 2307 2h indiana -5.5 W 364 UCLA +3.5 W 2350 2h mississippi -2.5 L 376 arizona u +10 W 104 USF -8 L = 32-21-1