Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma St vs Missouri 261 Okla St -1.5
262 Missouri 61.5
Both teams lost their conf championship games to get moved down
a level in the Bowl picture. Okl St would have been in the Fiesta Bowl
with a win and Missouri may have been playing for a national championship
had they not laid an egg in the 4thQ vs Auburn. Motivations may be
in question here as both have to be a bit disappointed and maybe a little
less then gung-ho. They will always deny it but look no further then last
nights Alabama performance, especially on defense, for a little supporting
evidence that the "we'd rather be somewhere else" angle should at least
be considered.
For Okie St, there is no real stand-out performer on offense but I do expect
the pass game to have to carry the day in this match. Senior QB Clint Chelf
will have to stay clean and get the ball consistently to a quartet of rotating
WRs who have but two 100 yd games total. With no clear #1 receiver it will
be a match-up dependent situation as far as target distribution. Tracy Moore
led in rec yds with 638 and Josh Stewart led with 52 catches. Both should be
lined at approx 50 yds receiving but the first numbers to go up have them at
65.5 and 70.5 respectively. Lean UN on both even with the expectation of
a more pass heavy attack then normal. Moore exceeded 65.5 in 4 of 12 while
Stewart went over 70.5 in just 3 games. They both went over in the same
game once, vs TCU mid-season. They both went UN in the same game 7 times.
On the ground, Desmond Roland was elevated to starter midway through the season
and went from averaging 6 carries a game the first half of the year to 20.6 carries
the second half. In his last six games he averaged just shy of 100 yds per game but
with a lot of variance. A huge 219 yd game vs Iowa St skewed his numbers
to the high side and even though he averages 99 yds per game since becoming
a starter, his median output is 77 yds, which is closer to where he should be
lined. Problem is this variance works against the sports books tendency to
miss situations like Rolands where his role changed dramatically mid season.
It's a spot where you'd usually have a great OV bet. His two big games (144 vs
Oklahoma and 219 vs Iowa St) accounted for 363 of his 598 yds in his 6 starts.
With 61% of those rush yds coming in 33% of the starts, that's a great spot for
an UN, but the two normally desirable stat quirks virtually cancel each other out.
The lean is to the OV if they put up low 70s but it could have been so much better.
On the Missouri side, only a moderately successful night for RB Henry Josey is the call.
The Ok St rush defense has been solid, allowing 3.5 ypc this season and with
SR QB James Franklin playing his last game it's reasonable to assume this is his
game both in the air and on the ground. They'll line Josey in the upper 80s to low
90s and I'll be on the UN there. For Franklin, he should crack the 300yd pass/rush
mark with TDs likely both passing and running. I think they'll line him properly.
For the receivers there may be a play. The two main targets are LDamian Washington
and Dorail Green-Beckham. Beckhams stats are interesting in that he was much more
the preferred target of Franklin then Mauk. In the four games Mauk started Beckham
averaged 3 rec for 48 ypg. In Franklins starts he avged 4.6 rec for 70 ypg. The line,
however, looks like it will be 69.5 yds receiving which is exactly what I made it so
nothing there despite the QB discrepancy. On Washington they put up 70.5 and thats
about 17% higher then the line of 58.5 I made. Lean UN on Washington but will wait
for the other books to go up to see if I can get a few more yds somewhere else.
Like last nights game there is a definite situation with the opening kickoff. Missouri
is a 100% REC team this year (5-0) and OK St is a 100% Defer team (3-0). Since
the game is OkSt -1 you get Missouri to score first at -115 max, maybe EV money.
Good bet and I'll be on it. With a total of 61.5, this line should be -150 or more if
you knew who would get first shot. There is a really good chance it's Mizzou here.
