Gator Bowl total I played 249) Northwestern/ Miss St OVER 51.5.
In my opinion, there is value playing the total over the current number of 51.5. Over the years, I developed a model for handicapping bowl totals. My model makes the total 57.3 on this matchup. It is very rare that my number differs by 5.8 points from the posted total. I believe that the Bulldogs' final offensive numbers were skewed lower because of the brutal 3 game stretch where they played Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU on consecutive weeks. Needless to say, Miss State's offense was held to 12.3 ppg during this stretch. However, in their remaining 9 games, the Bulldogs averaged scoring 36.2 ppg. One can make a strong argument that Northwestern's 55th ranked defense will not present the same scoring obstacle as top 10 defenses like Alabama and LSU. During that three game stretch, the Bulldogs allowed 37.7 ppg. The fact that Miss State allowed 41 points to rival Ole Miss in their last game makes me confident that Northwestern should be able to score at least in the 30's in the Gator Bowl. My offensive power ratings have Northwestern's offense rated similar to that of Mississippi's.
The Wildcats' head coach, Pat Fitzgerald is leading Northwestern to its 3rd New Year's Day Bowl in the last four years. Fitzgerald has played wide open games in his last 4 bowl appearances. The Wildcats have scored 29.5 ppg and allowed 36.5 ppg in these 4 bowl games.
In Dan Mullen's last bowl matchup versus a BIG 10 team, Miss State beat Michigan 52-14.
Unless there are key injuries, suspensions or unpredicatable weather conditions, I believe that this total will creep up to at least 54 by kickoff.
Good luck,
charliej
