Hello to everyone, here are my plays ...

[QUOTE=ChemicalAT;54257]I watched entire game. The second-to-last drive for South Caro (in which they scored a TD to cover) certainly had some fortunate breaks. However, I'm not about to say covering the overall bet was a case of being wrong but getting paid. South Caro was firmly in the cover or on a push for most of the game and until idiot QB Shaw put LSU in a great spot with his inexplicable INT early 4th qtr, the bet was in great shape. And given what happened to me with Tennessee (go from push to loss on amazing catch), I'm not giving back the money.[/QUOTE] Not to argue the overall game but remember that SC was only ahead because idiot LSU QB also threw INT that was returned 70+ yards to the 1 for their only 1st half TD. Also, if LSU is up only 8 on that last drive they dont let them walk 80+ on the last drive. Be honest though and tell me that you or ANYONE other than Spurrier would NOT kick the FG when you are down 9 with 2 min left and have 4th and 13 from the 17?? Then you had to convert it. Was with you on both and with Tenn down 13 at half thought we were REALLY fortunate to go 1-1. :)

Record here: 9-2 I didn't expect to have this much volume at this point of the season, but some decent opportunities are there and I think we can start finding some good teams to get on now as the season begins its second half. Arizona State + 9 1/2 -- Can't help but feel Oregon is very overrated at this point. Perhaps I'm basing most of this on watching Arizona go up and down the field on the Ducks but fail to score points for whatever reason. Fact is, Oregon has playmakers on offense that are scary, but they don't have a consistent offense because the QB play just isn't where it has been in recent years. Arizona State is plenty fast and much better coached this season. I have a sneaky good feeling the Devils are going to move the ball quite well on the Oregon defense. I also have a feeling the Devils speed on D is going to keep them from getting in too much trouble. This is a great, great spot for an upset and this line is a nice bit of points to deal with. I thought last year ASU played better than the final score showed at Oregon. Different team and different approach, but they are more talented this year and have a better approach. I'm gonna take a lite snack on the money line here, too. NC State -3 -- Have felt the entire season that NC State has vastly underperformed given the talent on hand (especially offense). Teams that can test the 'Pack back seven with the pass are what worry me. Maryland isn't that (one game with over 300 yds passing this season). The FSU win was a buy signal, not just a team that got lucky and will now fall back. Good coaches get their teams to start cranking as the season wears on. Off the bye, there's no excuse for the Pack to come in flat after FSU win. Cal +2 1/2 -- Stanford offense has shown very real signs of being terrible on the road this season. Look at the Washington and ND showings. Meanwhile, Cal's offense is coming around and its defense is showing signs of having learned something from playing some pretty nice offensive teams this season so far in Nevada, Ohio St., USC and Ariz St. Each showing has been better than the previous. The talent gap between these two teams isn't that vast. In fact, there isn't one. Cal, at home, will play fast and make Stanford do more than pound with Taylor. The ND trip certainly drained Stanford and this is a great spot for a Bears team that I think we can bet with confidence from now on out. Remember, last year's game was close and Stanford was way better then. Clemson -8 1/2 -- The fact Va. Tech still carries some weight just because of its name helps us a bit with this line being under double digs. I hate trusting Dabo, but if you're going to it should be when his defense has the edge over the opponent's offense. They have that here and although Va. Tech rallied nicely last week, the mere situation it was in vs. Duke should be cause for pause. Clemson can score and keep on scoring. Clemson can get more stops than Va. Tech. This game is key for the conference as FSU's loss opens things back up a bit in the Atlantic. Texas Tech -2 1/2 -- True, the Red Raiders took advantage of a great scheduling situation to wallop West Va. last week. But that's not entirely why that result was what it was. The Red Raiders defense is solid and the entire team is growing in confidence and so should we as the body of work continues to look better and better. Don't like TCU's offense one bit. The QB Boykins is still a question and probably liability despite what happened last weekend vs. Baylor. Texas Tech's defense will give him fits. TCU is a very incomplete football team STILL. This line is very cheap when you consider bodies of work and the home field simply cannot mean this much. Texas A&M +4 -- Last week's shootout vs. La Tech has probably scared a lot of people away. But remember, it was an out-of-conference game right before this huge one vs. LSU. This A&M team when it is stepped in class looks a like a good tool to make money with. But when they face teams they SHOULD beat and don't take totally serious, then you bet against (just like we did vs. Ole Miss). Fact is, the same effort A&M gave vs. Florida will win this. And the Aggies are actually a better team now offensively because Johnny Football has more time under his belt. LSU's offense just isn't trustworthy, especially not on the road in a rough environment. Take away a pick return for TD and a 50-yard TD run vs. South Caro and there's still not much to like about LSU in the point-scoring department. Will the Tigers get better as the season gets longer? Probably. But they're laying more than a FG on the road in a dangerous spot and it's hard for me to see them getting a margin sans flukes or big plays.

Very disappointed to see this line move toward Arizona St. (from +9 1/2 to +7 1/2) When everybody thinks they see an upset coming, it rarely comes. I truly thought people would be on Oregon at what they perceived to be a "cheap" line.

Ha. Yep. Seems that way a lot.

But if you thought the line was going to move in the other direction, wouldn't you have waited to release the pick? If it goes to 6', that's a nice middle.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;54345]But if you thought the line was going to move in the other direction, wouldn't you have waited to release the pick? If it goes to 6', that's a nice middle.[/QUOTE] Wait to release the pick? "Nice middle"? Nah man, that's not how I do things. I'm not a scalper and I don't chase middles. I bet the games I like and try to turn a profit at the end of the year. I realize there are other guys who do what you're talking about, but it isn't for me. I would say the last part of my arsenal that needs refining is projecting where lines are gonna go. Fezzik is a genius at that, but that's partially because he moves the line. I'm not the best at it and am trying to get better at it. I only became very good at this four years ago after YEARS of losing and doing stupid things. I really thought we'd see nothing but 10s from this morning on.

What happened with Arizona State?

They lost. Sorry I had to be the one to break the news to you.

[QUOTE=ChemicalAT;54366]They lost. Sorry I had to be the one to break the news to you.[/QUOTE] I found this funny. Great job and analysis over the season thus far chemicalAT, I always enjoy your write ups.

Season record on here: 11-6 Last week stunk. 2-4 could have been better, but laid 2 1/2 with NC State and they win by 2. Got 4 with A&M and they lost by 5. So it goes ... Georgia +7 -- Seems like classic Richt cover time. Never lay points with the guy, but give his teams a long look when they're dogs. I realize Florida is on quite a roll because it's offense is finally holding up its end of the bargain. But the Gators have also been at home in some favorable spots, and really, what's the most impressive offense they've seen? Tennessee? You get no credit in my book for handling the offensive juggernauts that are LSU and South Caro. And I even thought A&M did okay against them for half. Remember, Gators got seven turnovers combined vs. South Caro and LSU. Anyway, like the stead QB play of Georgia and think the Dawgs are plenty good enough on defense to make Florida work. Don't see a huge talent gap between these two teams, in fact, none at all really. Just looks like a close, defensive game to me and I will take the more reliable PASSER and a full TD any day in that scenario. Arizona +6 1/2 -- I bought to 7 but I really don't know why. I'm gonna have a decent chunk on Arizona on the ML here. If you stripped both teams down naked, i.e. removed the USC label, you'd have a pretty even matchup between two fantastic offenses and two horrible defenses. USC is not going to stop Arizona. Arizona, may be because it's at home and needs to only generate a pass rush, may stop USC here and there. The Wildcats have had some unfavorable scoreboards cammoflauge some very good performances on the field (see Oregon game). If Arizona is finishing drives, sometimes a big IF, then I like the overall dynamic of their offense against PAC-12 teams who haven't seen it yet. Really, you're gonna tell me Monte Kiffin knows the first thing about defending this kind of offense? He is very overrated as d-coor and is best at handling pro-style offenses. USC hasn't covered on the road this season, which is a bad sign. This line should be closer to pick than the road team -7. Washington +4 1/2 -- I dunno, I watched all of Oregon St's win over Utah last week and came away feeling like this team might have peaked. Obviously, the QB situation is a bit of an issue right now. Mannion will be back and that will help, but I'm not sure things will be that fluid right away. Washington can play real big at home ... this isn't a big play for me ... half a unit ... but I want to have some anti-Beaver money in my pocket just to see if I'm right about what I think I saw last week. Seems to me Oregon St. barely gets out of town, if they do at all. NC State +7.5 -- What the fuck. I've been burned by NC State a few times this season, but this is the prime time to play O'Brien (when he's a dog). This bet is mainly because some UNC lines this year have made me scratch my head, i.e. laying 7 at Miami. I think people may be forecasting some breakout performance that may or may not come. Home field and all, I just don't see UNC as even being the better team. But maybe playing their rival will bring out the best in them. Gonna grab the value and close my eyes. If there's a talent gap, it's in NC State's favor and if there's a coaching edge, that's also to the Pack. Ohio St. PK -- Gonna say it again, the Buckeyes are the fastest team (by far) in the B10. Gonna say it again, don't lay big wood with this team. If I believed Miller was 100 percent, this would be a bigger bet for me, but it's a bet nonetheless because I'd never forgive myself if the Buckeyes just out-classed Penn St. Anyway, Penn St. has been impressive, but they've also been in some favorable spots. Just have to think the fun ends when they get on the field with A. an athletic QB (something they haven't seen) and B. a better-coached team and C. a fast defense (something else they haven't seen). So there you have it.